645
FXUS63 KFGF 052353
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
653 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost and freeze headlines are in effect tonight for much of
  eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota. Additional
  frost/freeze potential both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Skies will clear from west to east this evening, giving way to
mostly clear skies and much colder temperatures. Frost and
freeze conditions are expected to develop overnight,
particularly where skies are clearest for the longest duration.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...Synopsis...

A strong (about 995 mb) area of surface low pressure has been
traversing the FA from southwest to northeast this morning and
afternoon. Strong pressure rises of up to 12 mb in a 3 hour
period, along with a bubble of cold air advection has lead to
wind gusts up to 55 mph across much of the FA. As the low
departs overnight, skies will clear, and high pressure will
begin building in. In turn, clearing skies will lead to
efficient radiational cooling several nights early this week,
bringing multiple chances for frost/freeze headlines. Cooler
temperatures do not last long however, as ridging already starts
to build in by the middle portions of the week, bringing highs
back above average into the 60s and 70s. By late week, another
trough arrives on the Pacific Coast, but cluster analysis shows
uncertainty in how it evolves and propagates eastward. Depending
on the amplitude of ridging ahead of the trough, mid to upper
70s or even a few low 80s would be possible, before more
unsettled weather returns.

...Gusty Winds Today...

As mentioned above, strong winds gusting to 55 mph this morning and
afternoon will continue into the early evening. Strong pressure
rises, a tight pressure gradient and a bubble of strong CAA all
combined to bring advisory criteria winds to the region. The
northerly component of the wind drove the highest gusts to be in the
Red River Valley, and areas adjacent in southeast ND where the
strongest CAA/pressure rises were. While winds will remain
elevated a few more hours, they should wane quickly after
sunset. The wind advisory remains in effect until 7 PM for much
of the FA.

...Frost/Freeze Headlines...

Frost and freeze headlines are in effect across most of eastern ND
and northwestern MN. Dew points upstream in the southern Canadian
Prairies are in the 20s. Add in clearing skies and decreasing winds,
the coldest temperatures tonight should be in the Devils Lake Basin,
with a quite extensive area of lows in the mid 30s surrounding it to
the east in the frost advisory. Frost and freeze potential remains
in place through the early portions of the week with northwesterly
flow in place. Additional frost/freeze headlines may be needed for
Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, so make sure to check back for
updates.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Winds will continue to diminish and skies will clear from west
to east, allowing conditions to prevail VFR for the remainder of
the TAF period once MVFR ceilings exit. Winds will remain
primarily northwesterly to westerly through the entire TAF
period with very limited aviation impacts after 12z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024.
MN...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
     MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Perroux