424
FXUS63 KFGF 291056
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
556 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat indices low 90s to low 100s today, highest in Red River
  valley where a heat advisory is in effect this afternoon and
  early evening.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms Thursday,
  with 1 inch hail and wind gusts to 60 mph the main impacts
  expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

One area of mid clouds in SE Manitoba generated a few t-storms
that are starting to drift east over Angle Inlet so added some
low pops there. Otherwise patchy ground fog but it is very
patchy and low lying unlike yesterday.

Coord with WFO BIS and other offices and no changes from
thinking yesterday afternoon regarding heat advisory headlines.
Kept it out for the RRV Fargo on north as this is where heat
indices will be confidently around 100.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper ridging continues to build into the Plains and upper
midwest through tonight and tomorrow. A few weak embedded vorts
with some mid level moisture will continue to move across the
area on top of the ridge, but not expecting more than isolated
sprinkles. Most model solutions show a stronger shortwave
riding over the top of the ridge Wednesday night into Thursday,
with some amplification as it digs into MN. This should help
push a surface trough/weak frontal boundary into the forecast
area. The upper ridge builds back into the region for the
weekend, with above average temperatures continuing. Southwest
to westerly flow aloft seems to be the consensus from the
ensemble members as we head into next week, which could bring
a more active pattern along with more seasonable temperatures.

...Heat tomorrow...

The warming trend that started today will continue into tomorrow
as heights continue to rise. Even with some smoke aloft, most
locations except the far northeastern counties should get to 90
or above tomorrow. With not much change in dew points that are
currently in the 60s and low 70s, heat index values in the
northern Red River Valley should get over 100 degrees. A bit
drier and could be slightly below 100 in the central and
southern Red River Valley, but HREF probabilities of getting
above 100 index are over 60 percent in the Fargo area. Wet bulb
globe temperatures are also above 80 degrees and in the extreme
category for portions of the Red River Valley. Went ahead and
put out a heat advisory for most of the Red River Valley
tomorrow afternoon.

...Marginal severe risk on Thursday...

Many of the CAMs break out some convection along the MT/ND
border Wednesday afternoon, then move it east Wednesday night.
There is a low chance that some of the cells will be holding
together by the time they reach far western Benson county early
Thursday morning, but many of the model runs just have the
convective complex decreasing in intensity. Whether we get any
convective redevelopment in the afternoon along the trough axis
will depend on how exactly the morning plays out. At this point,
the 50th percentile has 1000-2500 J/kg of CAPE over all but our
far northwestern counties Thursday afternoon, although deep
layer shear is fairly mid, around 25 to 30 kts at most. Still,
can`t rule out some isolated severe cells so will continue with
a marginal risk for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Patchy ground fog around and of course it shows up at BJI AWOS.
Kept low vsby there thru 13z may have to go another hour. It is
low lying and will burn off quick. Otherwise scattered mid
clouds today, mid level CU. Winds mainly south 5 to 15 kts into
tonight, brief periods of southwest wind direction west of the
valley. Chance of showers or t-storms move into DVL region
midnight or so.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039.
MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for MNZ001>004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle/JR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Riddle