144
FXUS63 KFGF 101856
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1256 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional periods of light snow through Thursday night.
  Probability of total snow of more than 3 inches is 30 percent
  in far southeast North Dakota through this period.


- Brief but intense cold snap Friday into Saturday, 80 percent
  chance for wind chills to drop to -30F or colder.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1244 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Snow continues across the region except for within the Red River
Valley where drying is occurring perhaps a bit quicker than
expected, as indicative of rapidly clearing skies from north to
south. Otherwise, sentiments in the previous update remain
valid.

UPDATE
Issued at 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Stratiform and HCR-type snow showers are prevalent on radar and
satellite. This is anticipated to continue into the early
afternoon before moisture and forcing diminishes to a point
where snow diminishes. While snow showers are of the HCR
variety, they are rather weak, with limited visibility
reductions down to around 1 mile at times, but not likely less
than 1 mile.

While snow will be light, it is very fluffy. Thus, up to around
1 inch of additional snow is expected today.

Winds will remain out of the north 10-20 mph through the
afternoon. This will promote drifting snow in open country,
particularly in areas that received new accumulations since
yesterday afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 554 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Band of light snow is moving east and back edge is at the Red
River. Lingering snow showers or flurries though west of this is
likely in stratocu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

...Synopsis...

Main 500 short wave and sfc moving quickly southeast into
southwest Wisconsin and northeast Iowa at 09z. There is a 500 mb
short wave trough axis extending north into the Red River valley
causing an additional area of light snow. This light snow area
moves gradually east today and weakens. In this light snow area
thru noon half inch of snow is likely in the Red River valley
10z to 16z period with potential for 1 inch. Winds are gusty in
the far southern valley with gusts 30 mph Wahpeton but farther
north gusts are gone with winds in the 15-20 mph range. With
blowing snow not an issue, did coord with BIS and DLH and we
dropped the winter weather advisory around 09z.

There will be additional short waves moving east and southeast
from southern and central Alberta thru Thursday night. Impacts
are mainly in regards to freezing rain potential not in our area
but from parts of Montana thru SW ND into SD. Light snow
periodic tonight thru Thursday night, with the Thursday night
light snow along an arctic cold front that will move through.

This front will bring a 2 day cold snap with wind chills likely
to drop to -30F and lower. 20 percent chance of wind chills -40F
and lower for a time Saturday morning.

500 mb flow goes more zonal quickly next week with temperatures
moderating. To what degree they moderate or rise to is
uncertain due to snowcover.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Generally low confidence TAF, mainly due to lingering
stratiform snow mixed with snow showers creating variable
conditions ranging between VFR and IFR. Ceilings are bouncing
around between VFR and MVFR, whereas visibility at times are
dipping into IFR, particularly within snow showers.

This is anticipated to be the case until around 21Z when
moisture and forcing diminishes enough to cease snow shower
production. Areas within Minnesota could hang on to snow and
lowered ceilings longer toward 00Z. Expect TEMPO groups to be
prevalent within TAFs until around this time.

Additional light snow and lowered ceilings will move into
eastern North Dakota into west-central Minnesota toward midday
Thursday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...CJ