491
FXUS63 KFGF 240511
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1111 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A winter storm watch is in effect for Tuesday and Wednesday
  with a 70% chance for minor (advisory type) impacts to holiday
  travel.

- Below average temperatures arrive after Wednesday, with a
  more active precipitation pattern possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Quiet weather persists this evening with high clouds across the
region. Limited weather impacts remain expected tonight so no
major changes to this update. Light and variable winds and
subfreezing temperatures remain the norm through the overnight
hours.

UPDATE
Issued at 509 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

High clouds continue across the region late this afternoon
following record breaking temperatures across the region. Winds
will diminish overnight with no weather impacts expected other
than subfreezing temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...Synopsis...

The pattern is about to become much more active with an upper
low centered near the four corners region ejecting east into the
mid Mississippi Valley as the southeast CONUS ridge continues
to appear weaker and less amplified by the day. As this happens
a northern stream wave (currently still offshore the PNW) will
track east across the rockies sliding slightly south across the
northern plains as it becomes negatively tilted and deepens over
Minnesota and the upper great lakes. A slightly less complex
interaction than previously forecast perhaps but crucial
nonetheless to the eventual track. Behind this system much
colder air follows this system as afternoon highs Wednesday only
reach the lower to middle 20s. Reinforcing cold air brings
temps down further as we head into Thursday and Friday, with
another chance for precipitation heading into the weekend.

- Winter Storm Watch

Picture you are driving from your house in the country to your
in- laws in the city, snow is falling and you can intermittently
see the next shelterbelt in between surges of wind driving down
visibility for 10-15 seconds at a time, roads are average for
the winter season with a little slush and the tips of the the
grass are still poking through the 1-2" of snow that has already
accumulated on non paved surfaces giving some contrast to focus
on and keep you between the ditches. Overall it feels like a
slightly worse than average driving day in the region but this
time you happen to be traveling for Thanksgiving and are in a
slight rush because you dont want to spend more time at the in-
laws than you have to so you`re already running a tad late. If
that sounds like a bad day then you probably arent looking
forward to Tuesday afternoon/Wednesday. If that sounds
manageable then you are probably eager for this first genuine
snowfall of the season.

Okay enough story telling, as this northern wave slides across
our area rain will initially fall for areas south of HWY 2 with
snow for northern areas and a changeover to all snow for the
entire area by Tuesday evening. As winds increase on the
backside of the passing low between noon on Tuesday and midnight
visibility will occasionally drop to 1/2 mile mainly in open
areas. A few concerns arise with amounts however given warm
preceding ground temperatures, near freezing air temperatures,
and a good chunk of this event occuring during daylight for most
areas. All these factors combined should limit actual
accumulations especially on paved surfaces initially. If 4-6
falls maybe expect 2-4" to actually stick. Knowing that tidbit
this will be a heavy wet snow so even those couple inches still
be less than fun to shovel. As the low continues to inflect in
southern Minnesota Tuesday night deformation on the NW side of
the low should promote some mesoscale banding (not being well
resolved by models) in north central Minnesota with heavier snow
rates of > 1"/hr having the highest likelihood of reaching the
typical 6" threshold for warning impacts for areas from Mahnomen
to Park Rapids and Bemidji eastward into the arrowhead. Overall
the current Winter Storm Watch in effect more so as an advanced
messaging tool for poor holiday travel rather than a slam dunk
downstream upgrade to warning for snowfall. Expect numerous
counties currently in the watch to receive less than 6" of snow
(sans the area mentioned above) and to only be upgraded to an
advisory.

- Colder weather on the way

Looking into Thursday and Friday, much colder temperatures are
expected as highs struggle to reach the low 20s on Thursday.
Several reinforcing surges of cold air are expected through the
end of the week, along with a chance for additional snowfall as
we head into the weekend. At this time, guidance is showing a
large range of potential solutions, with generally low
confidence in a single scenario.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1109 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Aviation impacts will be limited for the TAF period unless the
storm system to the west approaches faster than the majority of
ensemble guidance. Winds will generally remain below 10 knots
alongside VFR conditions for the TAF period. Clearing can be
expected through the overnight and morning hours before a storm
system approaches from west to east. Ceilings will fall along
with this and is expected to eventually become MVFR to IFR,
however timing pegs this to after midnight tomorrow. DVL may see
MVFR to IFR conditions prior to the end of the TAF period,
however most guidance keeps it west. Should it arise at DVL (or
even further east), then expect snow to accompany it with
visibilities likely dropping to IFR and LIFR at times.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday
     night for NDZ016-027>030-038-039-049-052-053.
     Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday
     afternoon for NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-054.
MN...Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday
     night for MNZ001>003-006>009-013>017-022>024-027>032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...Lynch/TT
AVIATION...Perroux