312
FXUS63 KFGF 161222
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
722 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next chance for strong or severe thunderstorms is Sunday and Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 706 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Clear wedge holds on from Fargo-Valley City to Grand Forks to
Hallock. But eventually high and mid clouds will move into E
ND/RRV. Showers are lingering Elbow Lake MN and Staples so kept
NW edge of precip in that area til about 14z. Otherwise 06z
model data shows not a lot with this next wave today...some
minor precip chances south.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...Synopsis...

Nice to have a quiet night for a change. Showers are located
just southeast of our forecast area from Duluth to Alexandria
with the showers moving northeast and eventually east.

Partial clearing did work into northeast ND and far northwest MN
overnight and with that temps at 08z had dropped into the mid
40s at several locations along the Canadian border. Clouds are
increasing though from the west and southwest ahead of the next
500 mb wave with the end result today being mostly cloudy.
This 500 mb short wave is moving thru central Montana with
showers in Montana into western SD where it meets up with
another short wave and higher instability in eastern Wyoming and
western SD. The upper wave will move east and the Montana wave
weakens a bit as it does move east today with moisture more
focused on the South Dakota wave. Therefore trends are for lower
pops for our forecast area with dry conditions Hwy 2 north
today, with scattered showers south. No thunder mentioned. Rain
amounts very light, trace to 0.05 inch in the south.

Clearing tonight and a mostly sunny pleasant day on Thursday
with highs in the low 70s and light winds. Normal highs are in
the upper 70s to low 80s now, so these are running about 7-10
degrees below normal.

Upper air pattern is such with northern Hudson Bay low and a
general 500 mb trough and supressed heights from British
Columbia east-southeast thru Canada and the northern tier of
states. Friday 500 mb wave is over northern BC attm and this
wave will bring moisture to the area late Thursday night into
Friday. Showers and a few t-storms possible. Instability is weak
and not supportive of any strong storms. Clearing out for
Saturday.

...Sunday and Monday...

Next larger 500 mb low and short wave moves into Alberta Sunday
and south winds will bring up more warmth and moisture to create
increased surface CAPE Sunday afternoon, with highest sfc CAPE
values 2000-2500 j/kg in western ND and potential for over 3000
j/kg sfc CAPE into eastern ND and RRV Monday as dew pts climb
into the 65-70 range and highs temps into the low 80s. Machine
learning forecasts do highlight the area Monday with a low end
chance for severe.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 706 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR today. Mix of high clouds and mid clouds across the area
today, then clearing overnight to a mainly clear sky for late
tonight into Thursday. NNE wind 8 to 15 kts today, few gusts
over 20 kts, then light/variable overnight into Thursday
morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle