928
FXUS63 KFGF 152016
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
316 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a medium chance for thunderstorms early next week.
  Potential exists for strong to severe storms on Monday over
  portions of southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...Synopsis...

The large scale pattern features broad ridging across the
southern CONUS, which has flattened in response to a trough
moving over Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Surface low pressure and
a cold front are moving over our region currently with scattered
showers over northwest MN. There is a narrow corridor of
elevated instability that could support a few strong storms,
however marginal shear and skinny/elevated CAPE profiles will
limit the strength of updrafts. Another mid level trough moves
across Canada Monday into Tuesday, and eventually deepens near
the Hudson Bay region, resulting in a shift to more northwest
flow and cooler temperatures (70s for highs). By late next week
ridging is shown by ensembles to begin to build back into the
Northern plains though the strongest height rises remain south.
This should bring above average temperatures back to the region
and on the backside of the ridge either a west or southwesterly
flow aloft. That could support additional progressive waves and
rebuilding instability towards our region, though there remains
higher spread in details.

...Severe Thunderstorm Risk Monday...

The strongest part of the upper trough remains north of our
region, and there is still quite a bit of spread regarding the
timing of PVA/forcing along the base of the upper low in Canada.
There is at leas a signal for showers and thunderstorms with
40-60% probabilities for wetting rain (0.1"+). However, the
potential for severe thunderstorm impacts will depend on the
timing of both the larger scale forcing and surface
features/mesoscale details which are still carrying lower
predictability/higher spread with multiple scenarios on
location, timing, coverage of severe coverage. Machine learning
and AI based systems still highlight a 5%+ potential for severe
storms Monday afternoon into Monday night in southeast ND
towards parts of west central and northwest MN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Expansive stratus is lingering over much of eastern ND and
northwest MN (IFR to MVFR) with some pockets of improvement in
southeast ND and west central MN. Low pressure and a frontal
zone are pushing east, and as daytime warming continues this
stratus layer should trend towards VFR in the west and south
through the afternoon/early evening. Stratus is more likely to
linger in northwest MN through the entire TAF period, while
northeast ND may see MVFR stratus fill back in late tonight as
surface high pressure slides over the region after 08Z through
mid morning. All guidance favors IFR rebuilding back into
northwest MN during that same period. Where skies are able to
remain clear and if winds become light, there may be a window
for fog development Sunday morning. Due to low confidence in
persistent clearing or winds going calm I held off on fog
introduction (will be monitored).

Winds are shifting to the west and northwest behind the front
this afternoon, increasing above 12kt. Occasional gusts to 25kt
can`t be ruled out if there are more consistent breaks/clearing
areas this afternoon. Winds should diminish with sunset and
building high pressure.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR