454
FXUS63 KFGF 012052
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
352 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread frost and areas of freezing temperatures are
  forecast tonight into early Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper trough within Canada is spreading its influence over our
region, with a feed of relatively dry, continental air mass
infiltrating into the region. Surface high pressure settles into
our area amid this dry, cooler air mass. With clear skies and
predominately calm winds, ideal radiational cooling will allow
for temperatures to dip into the mid 30s to upper 20s
tonight/Friday morning. This will result in widespread frost and
areas of freezing temperatures. Mid level clouds are forecast to
spread into our area from the west, but expected to occur near
sunrise still allowing for frost/freeze. Urban landscapes may
not see frost/freezing temperatures due to locally warmer
temperatures from urban heat island effects.

Additional chances for frost exist this weekend into next week,
particularly Sunday night into Monday morning.

The upper pattern remains in a quasi-zonal flow through the weekend,
with a progressive shortwave trough forecast to move through
Friday night into Saturday. This will provide forcing for
ascent bringing a medium chance for rain showers. This wave is
likely to be devoid of overall moisture content, thus rain
amounts are anticipated to be rather low - less than quarter of
an inch. Rain may come in two bouts - the first Friday night
associated with warm air advection and low level frontogenesis,
with the second bout more during the day Saturday associated
with the passage of the mid level wave and associated cold
front.

Ensemble guidance suggests in transient shortwave ridging early
next week, although the influence of this remains in question.
There could be a brief trend in temperatures toward slightly
above average temperatures; otherwise, temperatures are forecast
to remain near average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Medium to high confidence in VFR conditions throughout the TAF
period. Skies will be mostly clear, save some upper/mid altitude
clouds approaching from the west Friday morning. The only
opportunity for non-VFR conditions is low chance for patchy
ground fog Friday morning.

Northwest winds this afternoon will gradually lessen, turning
less than 10kt around sunset before going calm and variable.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Friday for
     NDZ008-014-016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-053.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Friday for
     NDZ006-007-015-054.
MN...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Friday for
     MNZ001>004-007-017-024-027>032-040.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Friday for
     MNZ005-006-008-009-013>016-022-023.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ