129
FXUS63 KFGF 022052
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
352 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Air quality impacts will continue through Sunday due to
  lingering wildfire smoke.

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms develop this
  evening and overnight across southeast North Dakota and
  northwest Minnesota, with locally heavy rain and lightning the
  main threats.

- Strong to severe thunderstorm chances return to the region
  next week, especially from Tuesday into the next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...Synopsis...

Zonal H5 flow begins to shift slowly in the coming days,
becoming more southwesterly by the middle of next week. A cut
off H7 low will bring rain chances into mainly southeastern
North Dakota overnight tonight and into Minnesota through the
day on Sunday. Periods of moderate to heavy rain are possible,
as well as isolated thunderstorms. Heading into Monday and
Tuesday, a weak shortwave approaches the region, bringing
showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast for Tuesday.
Strong to severe storms will be possible from Tuesday through
the weekend as instability continues to build into the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest. A stronger system could bring
additional chances for thunderstorm activity late next week and
into the weekend.

...Smoke Continues to Impact Air Quality...

Near surface smoke concentrations are slightly lower this afternoon
in eastern North Dakota, with northwest Minnesota still seeing the
higher concentrations. Visibility has been falling as low as 4 miles
at various times today, but recently have been above 5 miles at most
locations. Conditions are expected to continue a slow improvement
trend through Sunday.

...Showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight...

A slow moving H7 low continues to move eastward across the Northern
Plains this afternoon and evening, and will approach southeastern
North Dakota tonight into Sunday morning. Instability is rather weak
this evening, but will be increasing gradually Sunday morning. The
primary concern with this system is the slow progression combined
with the potential for moderately heavy rainfall rates. Any
thunderstorms at form tonight would likely be of the embedded type;
however, lightning would still be a risk. For Sunday, instability
increases slightly and could bring isolated storms capable of
producing small hail and heavy rain.

...Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Next Week...

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate the potential for severe
thunderstorms next week, especially from Tuesday onward.
Westerly flow at 500mb turns more southwesterly Tuesday into
Wednesday, with a strong trough/upper low moving through the
area Thursday through Saturday. Ensemble suites disagree about
the timing, however, with the GFS/GEFS keeping an open wave, and
the ECMWF ensemble closing the wave into a much slower moving
upper low. Both ensembles show good instability, with shear
being dependent upon the timing of any associated shortwaves
preceding the upper low. Although exact spatial and temporal
details are minimal at this time, confidence is increasing that
there will be a favorable environment for severe thunderstorms
across parts of the area starting Tuesday, with particular focus
on the late week system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

VFR and intermittent MVFR conditions prevail this afternoon as
near surface smoke continue impacting visibility. While smoke
concentration is slowly improving in some areas, visibility
reductions into the 4-5SM range remain possible through much of
the afternoon and into the evening hours. Heading into the
evening, showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible, primarily in the vicinity of KFAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch