674
FXUS63 KFGF 080431
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1131 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Medium confidence chance for severe hail Saturday night
  across southern North Dakota and west central Minnesota.

- Low confidence nebulous chances for strong to severe storms
  through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...Synopsis...

While the jet stream is relatively mundane in terms of
curvature it will remain firmly overhead directing any
transient shortwave activity into the Dakotas and Minnesota over
the next several days. With moist southerly flow via the
central plains into the northern plains corn advection pipeline
dewpoints will easily climb into the 60s the next several days
leading to somewhat humid but overall seasonable conditions. We
will be in the 70s to 80s most days with an outside shot 90 in
the central/southern valley Saturday. Aside from scattered
thunderstorm chances the next several days look to be overall a
relatively dry stretch with no soaking rains on the horizon and
no other eye catching hazard potential as RH stays above 35% and
wind stays under 30 mph. Something could certainly pop up but
right now the main threat for any hazardous weather stems from
thunderstorm activity.

- Saturday Night Storms

A weak 500mb shortwave should be transiting northern Minnesota
by 00z Sunday with minimal action expected from this as it
remains displaced too far north from the moisture or
instability. A trailing inverted trough at 850mb will be the
area of focus overnight for initiation with a nice plume of
theta-e advection ahead of it. There is however quite a
disparity in the placement of the moisture gradient and its
northward extent which will also dictate the degree of
instability available. We could see a more bullish scenario like
the NAM where MUCAPE is in excess of 3000 J/kg or something on
the lower end like the RAP with only 1000-2000 J/kg where things
stay more south of the area. Unlike instability the shear is
more broadly agreed upon with anywhere from 40-50kts (locally
stronger scenarios exist). This combined with the fact elevated
convection seems to be the only possible evolution given a
nocturnal inversion and elevated hailers seem to be the primary
hazard. Given the environment (assuming storms form) would think
hail anywhere from 1-1.5" on the low end to up to 2.5-2.75" is
possible if something closer to the NAM verifies. We`ll
certainly know more by this time tomorrow. Fro reference the
hail we got out in Park Rapids this morning occurred in a very
similar thermodynamic environment with markedly less shear if
that helps to paint the picture for Saturday.

- Sunday and beyond

As the jet remains overhead no shortwaves are currently
standing out in numerical guidance but given 1000-2000 J/kg
MUCAPE and Eff shear of 30-40kts most days its certainly
plausible to expect numerous days to have storms, the severity
of which along with their placement is highly uncertain. The
first days that begin to stand out are Tuesday and Wednesday for
this potential but will wait until more guidance comes into
better agreement to start increasing messaging.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR should prevail through the TAF period across eastern ND and
northwest MN. Prevailing winds should remain light through the
TAF period (generally under 10kt) with variable directions as
high pressure eventually gives way to weak low pressure, along
with a weak frontal passage Saturday when winds finally turn to
the north then northeast.

There continues to be a signal for for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening, with the best
coverage/signal currently across southeast ND and parts of
northwest/west central MN (30% chance at KFAR  and KBJI).


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...DJR