682
FXUS63 KFGF 121150
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
650 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds gusting to 55 mph are expected today in the Red
  River valley and eastern North Dakota, and a Wind Advisory is
  in effect. There is a chance for strong wind gusts greater
  than 45 mph again Thursday as another front passes through
  region during the daytime and evening periods.


- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected
  over parts of the region each afternoon Tuesday through
  Saturday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect Tuesday afternoon
  and early evening for eastern North Dakota into parts of
  western Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

No further changes. Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

UPDATE
Issued at 555 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Looking over HRRR dew pts and RH values and likely area where it
will warm up enough to mix up to past 750 mb today, did lower Td
and RH values farther east with the mininum RH 30 percent line
roughly Hallock to Crookston to Fergus Falls to Alexandria. So
did spread red flag warning a few counties east to include all
of E ND and into parts of western MN. This matched up well with
MPX in having Stevens county in and us having Grant county MN
in.

Kept wind advisory the same as the area highlighted look good
for a very strong mixed layer with wind gusts 45 kts or so
likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...Synopsis...

Large scale pattern features strong ridging across the southwest
US, shortwave ridging over the Northern Plains ahead of a
shortwave trough in west-northwest flow. A progressive quasi-
zonal pattern will remain in place through early next week, with
warmer/above average temperatures through Saturday. Shortwave
trough passages within this pattern will be fast moving, and
deeper moisture return will tend to remain cutoff to the south
of our region, lowering the potential for soaking rains or
organized convection. Temperatures do begin to cool back to the
60s after the warmer temperatures (70s/80s) late week. This is
still within the lower bound of seasonal ranges. The main
impacts will be related to the frontal passages with these
shortwave this week and periods of dry/windy conditions (fire
weather concerns and strong wind impacts).

...Strong winds this week...

A Wind Advisory is in effect from 9am CDT to 7pm CDT Tuesday.
Unidirectional flow within the increasing mixed layer in the post
frontal air mass Tuesday will support strong wind gusts (45-55
mph) across much of the Red River Valley and locations west.
ECMWF EFI is 0.8 along the Red River Valley into west central MN
(good indication of near Warning gust potential) and NBM 24hr
gust probs show a signal for gusts 58mph+, though it is not a
widespread signal. Stratus exiting/clearing west to east could
complicate mixing for parts of northwest/west central MN. Based
on current mixed layer winds/peak winds near the top of the
mixed layer most locations should remain below warning criteria
(58mph+), however a few gusts around that value could be
expected. Uncertainty though regarding the areal extent,
frequency, and location of those gusts lowered confidence in
warning issuance.

Thursday is another day to watch for potential strong wind impacts
with another frontal passage as a trough moves into the region.
ECMWF EFI once again shows values 0.8 or higher and model mixed
layer winds support at least gusts in the 45-55 mph range once
again.

...Fire weather impacts this week...

Today: RH values from the upper teens to mid 20s are being
reported over much of the region this afternoon, with winds
gusting 30 to 40 mph across eastern ND. Winds have been slower
to increase in MN as expected but less frequent/localized gusts
to 25 mph can be expected along the Red River Valley in MN (15
to 20 mph east of the valley) before RH values recover this
evening. Red Flag Conditions are expected to continue through
early evening in ND and near critical conditions in
northwest/west central MN.

Tuesday: Low cloud cover will initially delay the increase in
temperatures and where it lingers limit potential daytime heating
mixing in northwest MN. In central ND and parts of eastern ND
clearing skies are expected and deeper mixing will support Tds
falling below 40F. Where temperatures reach the upper 60s/lower
70s in ND RH values are likely to fall below 30%, and
considering the stronger winds critical fire weather would be
expected. This is most likely from parts of the Devils Lake
basin to southeast ND, where a Red Flag Warning has been issued
for the afternoon/early evening period. There is much less
confidence in the northern Red River Valley of ND. RH values are
more likely to remain above 30% in our MN based on current
data, however due to the strong winds near critical fire weather
conditions are still likely within the Red River Valley of MN
and parts of west central MN as skies clear/temperatures
increase.

The rest of the week: Warm temperatures and low RH values 30% or
lower are expected over at least parts of the region through
Saturday. The lowest RH values of the week may be Wednesday,
however that day features the lightest winds. Thursday carries
the next best chance for Red Flag Conditions dependent on
mixing heights (better chances may be in ND than in northwest
MN).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 647 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Northwest winds today will be the main story. Very strong at
most TAF sites, exception being BJI. Particularly GFK and FAR
will see frequent wind gusts well over 30 kts and in some cases
well over 40 kts mid morning into the afternoon. Winds quickly
diminish after 00z tonight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>004-007-
     027-029-030-040.
     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ001>003-007-029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty/Riddle
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...Riddle