601
FXUS63 KFGF 141130
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
530 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a signal for precipitation chances heading into next
  week. At this time, the chance for minor winter impacts is
  around 10 percent.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...Synopsis...

Large scale pattern continues to feature broad shortwave ridging
over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest  with a split trough pattern
upstream over the Western US and Canadian Rockies. Rising heights
and a west-southwest competent to the cross mountain flow is
resulting in an anomalously warm air mass advecting into our
region, and highs today may reach daily records for some locations
(daily records are in the low to middle 60s). The mid level trough
over the Canadian Rockies eventually pushes east, and with the main
synoptic forcing remaining north and drier air in place measurable
precipitation chances are low late this afternoon into Saturday
morning, and predominantly tied to the associated cold frontal
passage (more likely just sprinkles than measurable showers).
Temperatures trend closer to seasonal ranges due to falling heights
and at least a period of brief northwest flow behind this shortwave.
Temperatures and precipitation chances/impacts become much less
certain as we head into next week as we transition to more of a
split-flow pattern.

...Low chance winter impacts next week...

The second split in the southern upstream trough evolves into a
cutoff low off the western US coast and gradually tracks east across
the Rockies an Plains next week. As is often the case with cutoff
features like this there is high ensemble spread in track/evolution
of the system an the interaction of this upper low and any weak
waves in the northern flow that may be closer to our CWA would
determine any wintry precipitation potential. The cutoff low itself
is associated with a much warmer air mass, with the northern stream
associated with colder airmasses. The ensemble members that show any
light to moderate snowfall or a wintry mix in our CWA are often
resolving slightly stronger embedded waves in the northern stream
where it is colder or just a little stronger CAA as the cutoff low
glances by our CWA Wed-Thu. These amount to around 10% of members
and match pWSSI probs for minor category/advisory impacts. More
likely scenario based on a larger consensus of ensemble members is
us remaining within the gap of the split flow lowering the chances
for any measurable precipitation substantially.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period across
eastern ND and northwest MN, with a low chance (30% or less) for
virga or very light rain showers this evening as a cold front
moves through the region. Early in the TAF period there is a
southwest orientated LLJ (25-35kt) across northeast ND and parts
of northwest MN resulting in directional wind shear. Winds
increase from the south today to around 12kt (gusts to 20kt at
times) and eventually shift to the west then northwest through
the TAF period due to the frontal passage.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR