573
FXUS63 KFGF 081925
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
225 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-There is a 1 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of
west central Minnesota this afternoon and evening.

-There is a 3 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday evening
into Wednesday morning. Significant wind gusts will be the main
threat, along with tornadoes.

-Temperatures on Tuesday afternoon will be into the 90s. Those
 working outside or exercising in directly sunlight or those
 sensitive to heat will experience impacts.

-There is a 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday
 afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper low across southwest Canada with resultant west coast trough
will slowly propagate eastward through the week. As this happens
anticipate upper waves to eject into the central CONUS bringing
multiple rounds of precipitation, severe storms, stronger
southerly winds, and heat impacts. Ensemble guidance in good
agreement with the evolution of this pattern, although
uncertainty remains with how quickly this overall pattern
evolves and where upper waves eject into the central CONUS
(along with meso features for severe potential).


...This Evening`s Severe Potential...

There is a marginal risk for severe storms across west central
Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Most CI may be more toward
midnight tied to a weak upper level wave, but could happen along the
lingering boundary as well. At any rate, environment is
supportive for marginal severe hail given MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg
and effective shear around 25-30 knots.


...Tuesday`s Severe and Heat Potential...

The stronger upper wave that will lead to CI has been delayed by
most guidance. Ensemble guidance (HREF & REFS) indicate a wide
variety of scenarios. The most favorable scenario at this time would
appear to indicate the surface low/warm front and CI will be near
the the ND/MT border (mid-afternoon). Anything that happens out west
would evolve into a linear complex. By the time the complex reaches
eastern North Dakota (after 7pm), the environment would be
supportive of significant wind gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes
(given the very strong instability, deep layer shear, low level
shear perpendicular to the complex, mid-level speed max, strong
DCAPE, etc.). Of course, other lower probability scenarios
exist, depending on the track/timing of the upper level wave
which will influence where the best severe threat exists.

Ahead of the severe threat anticipate stronger southerly winds along
and west of the valley, with a mixed layer up to around 850mb with
mixed layer winds 30-40 knots. Potential for advisory criteria is
lower at this point, but if mixing is efficient wind advisory
criteria possible (30% chance).

Other concern ahead of the severe threat is heat. Although heat
index values will remain below 100F, WBGT and HeatRisk would
indicate that those working outside in direct sunlight or those
sensitive to heat will be impacted.

...Wednesday`s Severe Potential...

Much of Wednesday`s severe risk is dependent on how
Tuesday/Wednesday morning evolves. With that said, the main upper
trough tied to the upper low across Canada will swing through
providing stronger forcing by afternoon. Potential for a spicy day
does exist given the stronger mid-upper level winds, especially if
instabilty is able to recover.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Aviation concerns are minimal for all TAF sites through the
overnight hours. Anticipate VFR cigs with winds decreasing to
light and variable overnight. Winds will increase from a
southerly direction by Tuesday afternoon, becoming quite strong
(with gusts up to 45 mph).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...TG