831
FXUS63 KFGF 012202
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
402 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain is expected across the region Monday through
  Wednesday. Best chances for 1+ inch of rain will be in
  southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota.

- Breezy north winds are likely late Monday night into Tuesday,
  with gusts upwards of 40 mph at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...Synopsis...

Widespread cloud cover remains in place across much of the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest. Temperatures this afternoon are in the 60s
where broken cloud cover is observed, with temps otherwise in the
50s. Ridging continues to exit the area this evening with satellite
imagery showing the development of a deep H5 trough moving into the
southwestern CONUS. This trough will continue to the northeast,
eventually combining with an upper low moving southward out of
Canada. This will be the source of widespread rain Monday through
Wednesday across a large part of the area. Cooler temps and breezy
winds are expected Tuesday into Wednesday, with another surge of
cooler temps also late Wednesday into Thursday.

...Heavy Rain Monday through Wednesday...

Warm air and moisture advection ahead our next system support the
continued mention of rainfall totals exceeding 1 inch across a large
portion of the area. Best chances of seeing over 1 inch remain
consistently in southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota;
however, recent RRFS and ensemble analysis are hinting at a slight
shift to the north. In either case, rainfall totals of 2-3 inches
are possible where deformation bands form as the low inflects and
moves northeastward Monday through Wednesday.

...Breezy North Winds Tuesday...

Much cooler advects into eastern North Dakota and northwest
Minnesota late Monday into Tuesday as winds shift to the north on
the western side of the upper low. At this time, wind gusts look to
remain just on the lower end of advisory level, ranging from 35-40
mph on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

LIFR conditions prevail at KDVL, with IFR ceilings at KGFK.
Elsewhere, improvement to VFR ceilings is noted in recent hours,
with similar trends to continue through the afternoon. Ceilings
will become lower once more this evening and overnight as our
next system approaches. Widespread IFR conditions are expected
by sunrise Monday, with LIFR ceilings and visibility possible
due to rain moving into the area. South winds become more
southeast through the TAF period, generally in the 7-12 knot
range.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch