508
FXUS63 KFGF 151753
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1253 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain Wednesday night into Friday may impact the ongoing
  harvest, with a 40 percent chance of 0.75 inches or more in
  the Devils Lake and far northern Red River valley.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Most of the fog has dissipated now. The latest run of the NBM
was added into the forecast. The forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 950 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Low stratus with drizzle continue across most of the area.
Patchy fog also continues, mainly in the Red River Valley on the
ND side. The latest surface observations were blended into the
going forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 655 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Light drizzle noted on webcams in several areas from Devils Lake
into southeast ND. Odd patch of drizzle outside of this area in
MN. Otherwise fog area is holding its own with the dense stuff
staying on the other side of the BIS/FGF cwa border.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...Synopsis...

500 mb low moving into Nevada early this morning in between Las
Vegas and Reno. Models have locked in on track of upper low to
around Sidney MT/Williston ND area by 00z Fri with sfc low into
central ND. Upper low and surface low move north into Manitoba
Thu night-early Friday. This track will mean the higher chances
of 1+ inch of rain has shifted a bit west and more focused in
west central/northwest ND and a slight shift west in percentages
of 0.75 inch and 0.50 inch or more with focus for this Devils
Lake-Langdon-Cavalier area.

For today...southeast wind and low level moisture looks to lock
in from parts of west central MN, northeast SD northwest toward
DVL and central/north central ND thru today. Did add some fog to
the western fcst area stripe from DVL to Gwinner as fog is
lowering vsbys just west in Carrington. Kept the drizzle mention
as well thru 17z. Some drier east flow should keep the IFR
clouds west of Grand Forks with Fargo on the edge...with some
partial clearing possible NW MN. Highs today in the 50s, though
barely 50 in the west as there is weak warm advection going on
thru the day. 850 mb jet increases overnight into Thursday with
PWAT increasing to 1.40 inches. Initial rain band with
potential t-storms due to instability centered around 850 mb due
to warm advection at that level 06z-12z Thu will be moving thru
Overnight tonight...though chances of showers will start 01-03z
in DVL to Valley City area. Bulk of the rain chances are 06z Thu
and after. 40-45 kt low level jet Thursday centered from eastern
SD into west central and northwest MN as surface low tracks to
near Jamestown by late Thursday and then north Thu night. Dry
slot works in Thu night, but during the day Thursday as main
rain area shifts north....scattered convection is likely in
advance of the dry slot. MU CAPE values 300-700 j/kg, though 20
pct chance of exceeding 1000 j/kg in southern RRV if indeed
temps can reach 74/75. The deformation zone of rain does shift
thru DVL basin overnight into Thursday but Thursday night will
shift more west and then shower chances diminish Friday as
system moves north...though lingering chances Devils Lake basin
and along Canadian border.

Southwest to west wind Friday and breezy/windy with mixing up to
850 mb where winds are 35-40 kts.

Weekend will some some low chances for showers Saturday but this
could be a model blend issue as most operational models have it
dry. Will see clearing Sat night into Sunday with temperatures
around normal. Ensembles indicate a short wave may move east and
then northeast into central Canada early next week with ECMWF a
bit stronger.  This may bring a chance for showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

IFR CIGs across most sites, with pockets of low VFR present.
The low stratus should lift to VFR later this afternoon. Then
overnight rain showers will move in, and continue through
Thursday morning. There is a 15 to 30 percent chance for
thunderstorms overnight. The highest chance looks to be around
KDVL. Winds will be southeasterly around 12kts, and gusting near
25kts Thursday afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CS
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...CS