384
FXUS63 KFGF 151723
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms in
  far southeastern North Dakota and into west central Minnesota
  Monday. All hazards are possible including large hail,
  damaging winds, and tornadoes.

- Active pattern keeps daily thunderstorm chances in the
  forecast nearly each day this week. Strong to severe storms
  are possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Isolated thunderstorms are forming across parts of southeastern
North Dakota this afternoon. This activity has been rather weak
and disorganized through the morning hours, with little chance
of risks or impacts other than lightning. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Watching an area of thunderstorms in south central ND and
northern SD this morning as they track eastward near Ransom and
Sargent counties. They have been on a downward trend in
intensity over the past hour and latest HRRR/NAM guidance
illustrates that. Otherwise, clouds continue to increase in
coverage this morning. Temperatures are currently sitting in the
upper 40s to mid 50s across the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...Synopsis...

Current satellite has an area of stratus in parts of southeastern ND
this morning bringing a light mist at times. Patchy dense fog may be
possible through sunrise as dew point depressions are near zero and
winds are light out of the southeast. Chances will be for areas
within the southern Red River Valley toward the Sheyenne River
Valley. Otherwise, we are looking at temperatures in the upper 40s
to 50s for overnight lows. Skies will remain mostly clear in the
northern Red River Valley and towards northwestern Minnesota
overnight. Cloud deck from the next approaching system will shift
eastward through ND and SD towards MN during the day.

Zonal flow continues to dominate the weather pattern aloft through
the coming week, with slight southwesterly flow helping to push
instability and moisture into the northern plains. Through this
zonal flow we have multiple shortwaves moving through bringing
thunderstorm chances to the forecast area. The first shortwave moves
through the region later today and into Monday bringing the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. A mid level jet
develops ahead of the system helping to increase shear and lift
across the region later this evening and overnight. Strong moisture
advection and instability pushes ahead of a cold front moving
through the Dakotas and Minnesota initiating thunderstorm
development. Initiation of storms will start out in western ND/SD and
track east towards MN later tonight. A brief break in activity as
the front slows in progression mid morning Monday. A secondary wave
of strong to severe thunderstorms develop Monday afternoon bringing
the chance for supercells. Highest instability, moisture, and lift
will be towards far southeastern ND into west central MN points
south and east. This area has the highest chance for scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms late tonight into Monday morning and
again Monday afternoon.

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected throughout the new
work week and into the following weekend. Uncertainty in the
instability, moisture advection, track, and lift associated with the
thunderstorms. This plays into the development and intensity of the
storms. None the less, multiple chances for thunderstorms are
expected this week, with machine learning indicating a 5 to 15
percent chance for strong to severe thunderstorms some of the days.
We will continue to monitor the active pattern setting up across the
region this week and into next weekend. Otherwise, expect
temperatures to be in the 70s to lower 80s through Wednesday, with
the warmest days end of the work week and into next weekend as
temperatures reach the low to mid 80s.

...Severe Thunderstorm Chances...

A mid level shortwave trough moves through the zonal flow later
today and into Monday bringing a trailing cold front to the Dakotas
and into Minnesota. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of
the cold front (within the western portions of the Dakotas) this
evening and overnight and track eastward. Storms will cluster
quickly and the complex will turn linear as it shifts eastward. The
front is expected to slow down slightly allowing the complex to
weaken as it approaches eastern North Dakota. As the system becomes
linear we can expect damaging winds as the main threat. Uncertainty
arises on how the complex will retain its severity as it approaches
MN, as the mid level Jet helping to fuel its development starts to
weaken by sunrise on Monday. Track of the system has been picked up
well within guidance, with the complex moving through the Dakotas
into MN. There are a few members of ensembles having the system
track further northward or southward. This will be watched closely
as any deviation would affect the severity of impacts for some
areas. The complex should move through northwestern/west central MN
by the mid morning hours, with a brief break in activity before
another round of storms starts to develop during the afternoon hours
on Monday.

As the front lingers through the forecast area and into MN and SD we
can potentially see another round of storms develop ahead of the
front. Strong lapse rates of 7-8 C/km, strong moisture advection, 35-
40kts of 0-6km shear, and a mid level jet across the area we can see
the potential for further strong to severe thunderstorms. The storm
mode for these thunderstorms would be discrete during the afternoon
and evening hours on Monday. There is a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms in far southeastern ND and into west central MN points
southeast for Monday. The enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms is
right along our forecast border in Grant, Otter Tail, and Wadena
counties points south and east. Central MN into eastern SD is where
the best parameters exist for supercell development Monday afternoon
and evening. None the less, we still have good parameters for strong
to severe thunderstorms, but coverage will be scattered for areas in
far southeastern ND into west central MN and isolated elsewhere. As
we progress later in the evening the storms will start to cluster
and go linear as they approach eastern MN. All hazards will be
possible Monday afternoon and evening, with large hail, damaging
winds, and tornadoes. Have a way to receive alerts tonight through
Monday.

As we progress through the new work week we will see continued
chances for storms through the forecast area as numerous shortwaves
track along the zonal flow. Tuesday a short wave moves through the
central and northern plains, but main severe weather threats should
remain far to the south in NE and KS. Further chances Wednesday and
Thursday for Thunderstorms. As we end the work week and enter the
new weekend machine learning has hinted at probabilities of severe
thunderstorms increasing across the Dakotas and MN. This will be
watched closely through the work week and right now is to far out to
say definitive on the severity of these thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

MVFR ceilings prevail at KFAR and KDVL this afternoon. Cloud
cover and isolated thunderstorms are expected at KFAR for the
next several hours, with additional storms during the late
overnight period. Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail early this
afternoon, with thunderstorm chances increasing this evening and
especially overnight. Severe storms are possible Monday morning,
which could include large hail, damaging wind gusts, and sudden
changes in wind direction and/or in the immediate vicinity of
the storm.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch/Spender
DISCUSSION...Spender
AVIATION...Lynch