075
FXUS63 KFGF 161933
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
233 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog west of the Red River Valley through early tonight.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms through tonight, with
  lightning being the main impact.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...Synopsis...

An area of low pressure is currently situated near the North
Dakota/South Dakota border, to the northwest of Aberdeen, SD. Ahead
of the low, an expansive area of rain associated with WAA advanced
northward this morning, which has now pushed out of the FA. In its
place, fog, drizzle and mist have formed ahead of the northward
advancing warm front. The densest fog is west of the Red River
Valley where easterly upslope flow is occuring. To the south of the
warm front near the tri state border area, temperatures have surged
into the 70s with some peeks of sunshine as the dry slot works into
the area.

The surface low will propagate northeastward overnight, and will be
near Winnipeg Manitoba by noon on Friday. In response, winds will
shift to the west for Friday, with shower chances steadily
decreasing from late tonight into the first half of Friday.

Thereafter, a progressive northwesterly flow pattern sets up.
Ensembles are hinting at a shortwave passing through early next
week. When looking at individual ensembles MSLP member centers,
there is a wide variety of scenarios in how the low tracks,
resulting at this time in low PoPs near the International Border
Monday into early Tuesday. Beyond next Tuesday, near seasonal
temperatures, with drier weather.

...Dense Fog...

Easterly flow ahead of the approaching low pressure/warm front has
resulted in patchy fog just about anywhere over our FA through most
of this morning. As the warm front advances northward, fog will
clear from south to north. The densest fog is located west of
the Red River Valley where the higher topography on the nose of
the easterly flow exists. The current dense fog advisory for
areas west of the Valley is in effect until 1 AM tonight.

...Thunderstorms through Tonight...

Outside of the rouge thunderstorm that remains in northwestern MN, a
"lull" has settled over much of the area as of mid afternoon. A
ribbon of elevated MUCAPE does still exist ahead of the warm front.
There will likely be shower/storm development in this ribbon during
the evening hours. Can`t rule out a few lightning strikes/rumbles of
thunder with the instability present. With the increase in showers,
PoPs increase a bit from mid evening into the early overnight,
generally along and north of Highway 2.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

A very complicated TAF period. To start, showers/rouge
thunderstorms will continue for the next few hours followed by
more shower development this evening. Fog/mist/drizzle west of
the Red River Valley will impact KDVL through the evening hours.
Ceilings today will be LIFR/IFR with ever so slow improvement
into MVFR starting mid afternoon at KFAR. Wind will shift
overnight from the south/southeast to the southwest. These winds
should finally whisk away the lower ceilings, improving all
terminals to MVFR by Friday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-028-054.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Rafferty