314
FXUS63 KFGF 150338
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1038 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms
  Monday, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary
  hazards.

- An active pattern keeps daily thunderstorm chances in the
  forecast nearly each day next week. Strong to severe storms
  are possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

As stratus has been slow to spread north remaining confined to
I94 and south thus far fog potential looks to be less expansive
than previously thought with mist already appearing on area
webcams in the far south. Soundings still appear supportive of
fog through BL winds upwards of 8mph will keep things patchy.

UPDATE
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Increasing clouds across the south tonight with light rain as a
wave moves through the area. With upslope easterly flow from
the Valley patchy fog looks likely in eastern North Dakota with
light winds beneath sfc high pressure in northwest Minnesota
also giving chances for patchy fog overnight. Further north
towards HWY 2 and the intl border things look to remain more dry
and clear.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...Synopsis...

Look for nearly zonal H5 flow to become slightly more amplified
heading into Sunday and next week. Flow at the 700mb level shows
more detail regarding shortwave activity in the coming days, with
multiple weak shortwaves Sunday and Monday. For Tuesday through
Thursday, a deepening trough works across the Northern Plains and
into the Upper Midwest, followed by a potentially strong upper low
later into Friday. Over the past several days, timing has been quite
challenging, with this being the primary source of disagreement
between ensemble members. At this time, the best chances for
thunderstorms will be Sunday night and most of Monday, followed by
period of lower chances on Tuesday and slightly better chances
Wednesday afternoon. Overall, look for active weather over at least
the next several days and into next week. Temperatures will remain
near normal or within a standard deviation of normal, generally in
the 70s to low 80s for highs and 50s for lows.

...Severe Thunderstorm Chances...

Sunday Night and Monday: There will be several opportunities for
strong to severe storms over the next week. The first potential
occurs Sunday night into Monday morning as a weak H7 trough
slowly works across the area. This will provide an axis of
development for showers and thunderstorms as instability
increases in the presence of a low level jet out of the south to
southwest. The primary concern overnight will be large hail,
with a conditional chance for damaging wind gusts. Temps in the
850-700mb layer are quite warm, however, thus hinting that
storms may initially be elevated and struggle to get wind gusts
to the surface. As the layer modifies, however, line segments
and gusty winds become much more likely just after sunrise
Monday morning. Further into the day, another round of
thunderstorms is possible, with support for discrete cells and
multicell clusters during the afternoon and early evening.

Wednesday through Friday: While the timing remains uncertain, H7
shortwave activity will continue to bring thunderstorm chances into
the area Wednesday through at least Friday. A slow moving, but
somewhat strong, upper low forms off the Pacific NW coast, drifting
gradually onshore, then into the Northern Rockies heading toward
next weekend. This will serve to tilt the flow more southwesterly,
thus increasing moisture flow into the Central and Northern Plains.
As this system draws closer to the Northern Plains, shortwaves will
have increased moisture and instability to work with, keeping the
mention of strong to severe thunderstorms in the forecast through
the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Confidence has gone up that fog will remaining primarily a FAR
problem though due tot he patchy nature have opted to prevail
6sm with BR and will allow for amendments should it become a
consistent problem in area. Elsewhere MVFR still expected in
DVL, FAR, BJI with a chance for brief IFR in the near sunrise
hours 10-15z at those sites. GFK and TVF staying VFR through the
period though seeing cigs drop below 6kft in the morning
tomorrow.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...TT