981
FXUS63 KFGF 272102
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
402 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to slightly above average temperatures are expected with
  highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s through Labor Day weekend.
  There is a low chance for strong thunderstorms next Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

...Synopsis...

Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a low amplitude shortwave
trough propagating out of southeast MB/western ON into northern
MN amid broader northerly/northwesterly flow aloft. This is is
providing a source of lift into northern MN, harnessing
available moisture to spark widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms west of the Highway 59 corridor.
Thunderstorms will be weak, with main hazard being periodic
lightning. This activity ends by early evening.

Tonight, guidance agrees in weak surface flow given col-like
surface pattern over the eastern Dakotas and MN. High likelihood
in mostly clear skies tonight through Thursday morning will
promote efficient radiational cooling, allowing potential for
areas of fog to develop, despite general lacking of Low level
moisture. Some fog may be dense at times. High resolution
ensemble guidance suggests relatively best potential exists
within Minnesota, as well as into portions of the Red River
Valley.

Through the weekend, ensemble guidance continues to agree in
general weak flow aloft as upper ridging transitions west
through interior Canada into eastern Canada, sliding across the
northern fringes of weak upper troughing over the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic. This promotes generally dry conditions (outside
of isolated to widely scattered daytime showers) as well as
average to slightly above average temperatures with daytime
highs into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Ensemble guidance also
continues to agree in a weak, cutoff low sliding eastward
through South Dakota into southern MN. The vast majority of
ensemble members keep this low`s precipitation shield south of
the ND/SD state line, however, there is a small subset of
guidance that brushes light rain into southeast ND and west-
central MN Saturday into Sunday.

Upper ridging is replaced with troughing early to mid next
week as a shortwave trough digs into the Upper Midwest. This
brings a cold front and next appreciable chance for
thunderstorms around Tuesday.


...Low chance for strong storms next Tuesday...

Ensemble guidance largely agrees in a shortwave trough digging
into the Upper Midwest early to mid next week, bringing with it
a cold front sweeping through the region in a generally north
to south fashion. This should provide sufficient forcing for
ascent to generate thunderstorms should moisture and instabilty
be present.

With the incoming shortwave trough, it is reasonable to believe
increased kinematics will aid in increasing overall shear,
however specifics in this area remains in question.
Additionally, the degree of moisture return to fuel potential
thunderstorms remains in question as well. This will have a
direct influence in the amount of instability to sustained
robust convection. ML/AI guidance like FengWu and Pangu severe
probabilities outline the Dakotas into Minnesota both Monday and
Tuesday, but below 5%. GEFS probability for SCP greater than 1
and CAPE greater than 1000 J/kg is around 30% for these days as
well.

These aspects lower confidence in evolution and severity of
storms. Despite this lowered confidence, there is very little
support to think this potential will feature significant severe
weather hazards.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

VFR conditions are forecast throughout the TAF period. Winds
will be generally light, less than 10kt, with no ceilings
forecast.

There is, however, a 30% chance for fog to develop between
09Z-14Z for sites like KBJI, KFAR, KGFK, and KTVF. Fog may be
dense, less than half a mile, introducing potential for IFR/LIFR
conditions. Confidence is low enough in this occurring that is
was left out of TAFs. Should confidence increase, it will be
added, perhaps as late as a few hours before its development.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ