415
FXUS63 KFGF 241252
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
652 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter impacts are expected across portions of the region
  Tuesday into early Wednesday. A winter storm watch remains in
  effect, with an 80 percent chance for advisory impacts and a
  40 percent chance for warning impacts.

- Much colder temperatures are expected from Wednesday onward
  into the Weekend as part of a more active winter pattern.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Clear skies this morning, so no major updates are needed in the
immediate short term. Temperatures are mild, on either side of
30 degrees. This sets the stage for one last warm afternoon,
with high temperatures in the 40s area wide, warmest in west
central MN where a few 50 degree readings are forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 422 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...Synopsis...

An active winter pattern takes shape this week as a deep trough
moves southeastward out of Canada and into the Northern Plains. At
the same time, an upper low, located in the Central Plains,
continues to slowly drift to the northeast. Model guidance is a bit
slower than what satellite images suggest this morning, with the low
expected to become ingested into the aforementioned H5 trough. This
will be the source of winter impacts Tuesday into Wednesday across
the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Following this system, there
will be a surge of much colder air working into the area that will
remain in place through the weekend. Highs today will be in the 40s,
with low 30s on Tuesday; however, highs through the remainder of the
week will struggle to reach 20 degrees.

...Winter Storm Watch...

There remains an 80 percent chance for advisory impacts across parts
of the area Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The highest chances at
this time look to be along and south of Highway 200, where heavier
snowfall totals are more probable. There is a 90 percent chance for
2 or more inches of snow between the HWY 200 and I-94 corridors,
with lower chances to the north. WSSI-P has increased the
probability for moderate impacts across the same area, with about a
40 percent chance for warning level impacts. Looking at the expected
snowfall totals, the 25th and 75th percentiles are roughly 3-7
inches respectively, with a 10th and 90th range of 2-9 inches.
Further north, the gradient of expected snowfall drops sharply to
the north of HWY 200, with 25th and 75th percentile values of 1-4
inches. Winds are expected to increase as the system progresses
east, with north winds ranging from 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph
for many locations along and west of the Red River Valley. This will
lead to areas of visibility reductions where heavier snowfall totals
exist.

...Much Colder from Wednesday Onward...

Temperatures become much colder from Wednesday onward into the
weekend. North to northwest flow prevails Wednesday through Friday,
with afternoon high temps only reaching the upper teens to low 20s.
Additional surges of cold air will keep temps quite cold heading
into the weekend, with occasional shortwaves bringing chances for
light snow. Upper flow then becomes more northerly with strong
ensemble support for a surge of arctic air along cross-polar flow
heading into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR conditions prevail this morning with clear skies across the
area along with light winds. Look for increasing cloud cover
this afternoon and evening, with VFR ceilings through late
evening. MVFR to IFR conditions begin to enter the region
overnight, first at KDVL, then KFAR as we approach sunrise. A
system will be bringing snow into the vicinity of most of the
TAF locations, with KFAR likely seeing the highest chances for
impacts to aviation during the day Tuesday. IFR to LIFR
visibility is possible during periods of heavier snow.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Tuesday
     night for NDZ016-027>030-038-039-049-052-053.
     Winter Storm Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Tuesday
     afternoon for NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-054.
MN...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Tuesday
     night for MNZ001>003-006>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch