897
FXUS63 KFGF 051739
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1139 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow accumulations of 1-3 inches are likely in eastern North
  Dakota towards with 3-5 inches in parts of north central
  Minnesota this afternoon thru tonight.

- West winds 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts over eastern ND may
  bring blowing snow and hazardous travel Thursday. Impacts
  depends on how much actual snow falls.

- For Friday night and Saturday...60% chance for minor
  (advisory) impacts for southeast North Dakota into west
  central Minnesota due to snow.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

The forecast remains mostly on track with only minimal changes
made to PoPs to reflect the latest trends in Mesoscale guidance.
SREF, HREF, and several CAMs now show slightly better
consistency regarding the potential for bands of heavy snow to
develop across portions of the area. Within these bands, higher
accumulation potential exists; however, spatial confidence
remains low to moderate at best. Synoptic support for 1-3 inches
remains strong, with higher totals in Mesoscale bands upwards of
4+ inches. Best chances for higher amounts will be from the Red
River Valley and points east.

UPDATE
Issued at 619 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

All quiet over the forecast area at 12z. 06z model data suggests
forecast on track so no changes were necessary to current fcst.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...Synopsis...

Two systems coming up. One this afternoon and tonight, mainly
affecting NE ND into MN, and the other affecting areas along the
SD border into central MN Friday night/Saturday.

500 mb flow is essentially westerly along the northern tier of
states with embedded short waves moving thru with rather weak
surface features.

Today-Tonight...

One 500 mb wave moves thru southern SK and eastern Montana and
into southern Manitoba and North Dakota tonight with location of
this wave in NW MN by 12z Thu. Warm advection is the main
driver for precipitation development along with transient
frontogenetical forcing. One area of snow looks to go thru SE
Saskatchewan into southern Manitoba more tied to the 500 mb
upper wave center, while GFS in particular shows transient 700
mb frontogenetical areas developing in warm advection zone into
west central and northwest/north central MN 22z-04z period.
Would anticipate snow to develop in this warm advection zone
first from northern SD into southeast ND after 20z and then
increase in coverage with better forcing over west central into
northwest MN in that 20-01z period and then into north central
MN 01-04z period. Brief heavy snowfall rates but fast moving
zones of forcing will limit time of heavy snowfall rates.
Therefore forecast snowfall from this system for this
aftn/tonight are highest in MN 2-4 inches just east of the Red
River with 3-5 inches Park Rapids to Baudette. In this 3-5 inch
area an advisory will be issued.

After midnight into Thursday west winds will increase as the
system moves east. Forecast soundings show rather shallow mixed
layer due to lack of cold advection with peak gusts 35 kts or so
E ND with sustained values 20-25 kts. Enough for blowing
snow...and would rule out advisory impacts from blowing snow.
But this highly depends on snowfall from this system. Will re-
fresh the SPS for blowing snow for E ND/RRV this early morning.

...Friday night-Saturday...

West to east moving 500 mb wave will bring snow, possibly heavy,
as moisture source for this is more from the Gulf. Little
surface reflection but looks like good frontogenetical forcing
in bands that may linger of an area for a time. NBM probs for 6
inches or more are 60-80 percent in far SE ND, NE SD into
central MN. WPC chat was mentioning potential for watch
coordination to be done later today for this event. Right now
target area of heaviest snow is in between Fargo and Brookings
and east into MN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites heading into the early
afternoon. Look for increasing cloud cover this afternoon into
the evening with the chance for snow overspreading the area late
this evening into the overnight hours. Bands of heavier snow are
possible, with snowfall rates potentially around or just over 1
inch per hour, thus impacting visibility. These bands are
expected to be transient, but still impactful, with the best
chances of occurrence at KFAR, KGFK, and KTVF between 00Z and
06Z. Winds will be out of the southeast initially this afternoon
before shifting to the west late in the TAF period. BLSN is
expected as winds increase early Thursday morning with gusts
upwards of 30 to 35 knots.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Thursday for MNZ006-009-016-017-023-024.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Lynch