973
FXUS63 KFGF 191138
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
638 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms in eastern North Dakota into Minnesota
  Wednesday overnight into Thursday. No severe weather
  anticipated.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Weak high pressure over the area early this Wednesday morning
giving a clear to partly cloudy sky with patches of cirrus.
Light winds allowing temps to drop into the 40s to low 50s.
Patchy ground may well make its appearance as we get toward
sunrise but anticipate it to be patchy and low lying like what
we saw on the past few mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...Synopsis...

A classic August pattern is in place over the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest. As of this afternoon, we are sandwiched between
ridging over the western US, and troughing over the Great Lakes.
This leaves us in northwesterly flow aloft through the next several
days. This upper level flow will propagate a few shortwaves through
the region. The first shortwave late Wednesday brings the
potential for showers and a few thunderstorms. A few showers and
thunderstorms may linger into Thursday. Another wave arrives
during the second half of the weekend. Neither of these systems
look to bring heavy, widespread rainfall, but rather more
localized shower/thunderstorm type activity. Therefore, the
probability for widespread precipitation over the next seven
days remains low. Temperatures will remain seasonal most days
(highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s). As western US ridging
tries to translate eastward early next week, temperatures do
look to warm a few degrees, into the mid 80s or so.

...Showers and Storms Wednesday into Thursday...

As a shortwave tracks southeastward out of Canada on Wednesday,
showers and a few thunderstorms will develop Wednesday west of
this FA, tracking into southeastern ND during the evening.
Instability is meager (up to about 500 J/Kg of MUCAPE), which
looks to be the major limiting factor for severe storms. The
latest SPC day 2 convective outlook has removed this FA from the
level 1 out 5 marginal risk, which conceptually makes sense
based the poor instability parameter space. Showers and storms
will translate eastward Wednesday night. A few more storms may
develop Thursday afternoon in MN, but again instability looks to
be lacking. Lightning will be the primary threat with any storm
that develops.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Today will see a light and variable wind. I left VRB as I
couldnt pick on main direction. Speeds 5 kts or less
predominate. Cirrus scattered to broken with some higher level
CU or AC thrown in today. BKN sky cover tonight of mid clouds.
Predominate southeast wind tonight less than 10 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Lynch