849
FXUS63 KFGF 292341
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
541 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow gradually ends this evening from northwest to southeast.

- Below average temperatures continue into next week as Arctic
  air pushes southward into the Northern Plains and Upper
  Midwest. There is a low chance for minor winter impacts
  towards the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 541 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Still getting reports of flurries at times across northwestern
counties where it is clouding in again. Expanded flurry mention
and tweaked cloud cover to match current satellite trends.
Should see the clear area from the northern Red River Valley
down towards Valley City disappear in the next few hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...Synopsis...

North to northwest H5 flow will bring a surge of Arctic air into the
region tonight, with reinforcing cold air by mid week. Temperatures
are expected to be well below average through the forecast period,
with several chances to fall below zero. The best chances will be
where we have the deepest snow pack, generally in southeast North
Dakota and west central Minnesota. A shortwave brings precipitation
chances back into the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday, with
some uncertainty regarding the availability of moisture. Most
ensemble guidance is hinting at generally low QPF and snow
potential. Temps at 850mb have good support down into the -25C to -
20C range heading into Thursday, following the cold front. A second
system approaches toward the end of the week, with slightly better
moisture potential; however, ensemble spread at this time is too
high to support any single solution.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 541 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings with scattered light
snow/flurries bringing vis down to 3-5SM at times. A bit of a
clearing area from KGFK southwestward currently, but plenty of
MVFR to even IFR clouds upstream so will not last long. Should
see all stations drop to MVFR later tonight. Scattered flurries
are also possible, but not certain enough to include in the TAFs
beyond the short term. Should be some recovery to VFR towards
the end of the period. Winds will be north to northwesterly at
5 to 10 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...JR