893
FXUS63 KFGF 110312
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1012 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for strong to severe storms tonight and Tuesday night
  in southeast North Dakota.

- Seasonable weather with daily highs in the 70s and low 80s
  this week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

There is still a low to medium chance for scattered showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms overnight tonight south of US Hwy 2.
Rain under current lighter radar returns are struggling to reach
the ground due to lingering relatively dry air in the lower
levels.

While not likely, should a thunderstorm become robust, it would
be capable of producing hail up to size of golf balls.

Otherwise, expecting partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight and
light winds. Cloud cover and just enough wind should limit the
chance for fog tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...Synopsis...

Currently a very elongated ridge exists across the southern
CONUS with zonal to WNW mid level flow in the northern CONUS. As
we progress through the week ridging over the four corners into
Texas panhandle will amplify at the same time PNW troughing
begins to turn flow more zonal over us as the ridge gets pushed
east. By Thursday SW flow looks to dominate the western CONUS
bringing pacific moisture over the Rockies with embedded
shortwaves. Certainly still differences remaining across
clusters but the potential for a wet late week/weekend looks to
be increasing. The current placement of synoptic features would
more heavily favor southern areas for a soaking rain but even
then it looks to only be a quarter to half inch (locally 1"
perhaps) from Friday through Saturday.

- Severe threat today

While parts of southeast North Dakota are outlooked for this
evening the main risk looks to stay well south of the area into
South Dakota as a potential MCS develops amid a seasonably moist
and unstable airmass with dewpoints in the low 70s across much
of the Missouri river corridor in South Dakota. Further north
towards Bismarck dewpoints should still manage to climb into the
mid to upper 60s though this will only allow for 2000-2500
MUCAPE compared to the 3000-3500 further south with shear
relatively equal across the warm sector. Given cloud layer shear
approaching or even exceeding 70kts and DCAPE in excess of 1300
j/kg upscale growth seems to be the likely storm mode with an
initial window for large hail and a few tornadoes possible in
South Dakota. Should storms clip our area the thought is upscale
growth would already be underway and winds up to 60mph would be
the primary threat.

- Severe threat Tuesday

On Tuesday parts of southeast North Dakota are once again
outlooked in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for large hail
and damaging wind gusts. The primary initiating boundary looks
to be more so in South Dakota as a cold front moves southeast
with no defined waves aloft for large scale forcing. This will
increase the uncertainty in location of storms due to the subtle
nature of the forcing but with around 2000 MLCAPE along and
south of I-94 and eff shear of 40- 50kts, rotating storms are
certainly possible. Perhaps we simply reach convective Ts in the
mid 80s for some places in southeast North Dakota but lingering
smoke aloft could chop a few degrees off our heating potential
preventing that as well. Overall marginal seems to be the right
call here with an equal risk for hail to the size of ping pongs
(1.5") and wind gusts to 60 mph with any storms that do form.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 926 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. While partly
to mostly cloudy skies are forecast, the lowest forecast ceiling
is around 7kft. Scattered light rain showers may also be present
in southeast ND into west-central MN before 10Z. Winds will
generally be light and variable less than 6kt before 16Z;
thereafter, winds will generally be out of the northeast/east
around 7kt.

There is a chance of widely scattered thunderstorms after 00Z,
although at this time left this out due to chance at any
particular TAF site less than 30 percent.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...CJ