596
FXUS63 KFGF 022053
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
253 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain continues today through early Wednesday.
  Highest rainfall amounts range from 1-3 inches, with the
  highest values in west central Minnesota.

- Breezy north winds are expected Tuesday, with sustained values
  of 15-25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph. Highest winds will be in
  the Red River Valley and adjacent locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper low continues to move northeast this afternoon and evening,
with widespread rain observed across much of eastern North Dakota,
west central Minnesota, and northwest Minnesota. Winds have started
to shift to the northeast, and will continue to become more
northerly through the evening hours and overnight. The upper low
slowly exits the area late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, with
breezy north winds expected through much of Tuesday. Much cooler air
pours into the Northern Plains, with temperatures close to average
values Tuesday through Friday. Our next chance for precipitation
will be late Saturday into Sunday as a fast moving trough moves
across the area.

...Heavy Rain Through Wednesday...

Moderate to heavy rain will continue through the remainder of the
afternoon and evening across much of eastern North Dakota, northwest
Minnesota, and west central Minnesota. An upper low is slowly moving
to the northeast, but is expected to occlude and briefly become cut
off from the upper flow as we go through the day Tuesday. As this
happens, there could be a slight westward shift of the system. This
could keep light rain in the forecast through much of Tuesday and
into early Wednesday morning, especially east of the Red River
Valley. At this time, there is about a 75 percent chance to see an
additional 0.25-0.50 inch in the central Red River Valley, with
higher chances further east. Some locales could see upwards of 3
inches by Wednesday morning, with the best chances being in west
central Minnesota (25 percent chance).

...Breezy North Winds Tuesday...

North winds fill into the area as the H5 low moves slowly eastward.
These winds will increase this evening and overnight, with 15-25 mph
sustained winds expected by early Tuesday morning. Gusts up to 40
mph are possible, especially in the central and southern Red River
Valley. Pressure rises are expected to be sufficient to favor a few
higher gusts; however, with 700-850mb winds in the 35-45 knot range,
and generally weak cold air advection, there is minimal support for
anything more than occasional advisory level gusts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

LIFR to IFR ceilings and visibility are expected to continue
through most of the afternoon and evening. Slow improvement will
occur overnight from west to east as rain transitions eastward
with the upper low. Winds will pick up out of the northeast,
then north, increasing to around 15-20 knots. Gusts up to 40
knots will be possible starting late Tuesday morning, especially
at KFAR, and KGFK. Ceilings should be approaching MVFR by mid
morning on Tuesday; however, trends have been a bit slower in
recent model runs. For this TAF issuance, will hold onto MVFR
ceilings in the Red River Valley locations.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch