608
FXUS63 KFGF 030400
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1000 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty north winds and patchy blowing snow could lead to
  visibility reductions late this evening and overnight, with
  the highest chances in the southern Red River Valley.

- Intervals of below average temperatures through the rest of
  the week, along with snow chances from Thursday into the
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

After the initial period of stronger wind gusts as 925MB CAA
moved down the valley, winds have somewhat leveled off in our
north, though stronger 925MB winds (30kt) are still in place
overnight and with falling temperatures snow pack may become
easier to drift/blow (particularly south), so we`ll have to
continue to monitor trends through the overnight/early morning
hours. Most current visibility impacts in the near term are
driven by lingering light snow shower that are developing due
to the steeper low level lapse rates in place and low level
shear leading to some HCR type shower activity. Adjustments
were made to linger mention of snow and to adjust for potential
stratocumulus lingering longer Wednesday.

UPDATE Issued at 703 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Winds have picked up in northeast ND as CAA and northerly BL
flow is aligned with our valley, with flurries lingering behind
the main area of light snow (ahead of the cold front). There is
a small window in southeast ND/west central MN for freezing
drizzle right ahead of the cold front before wetbulb temps
rapidly drop behind the cold front as ice aloft is limited. That
window may already be closing as temperatures at the surface are
-10C (14F) and falling (north to south). Visibility reductions
 (3-6sm) appear to be related to flurries and limited blowing
 snow where winds are picking up. This will be monitored, but it
 appears impacts may be limited in our CWA from icing.

The impacts from blowing snow and any potential for localized
whiteout conditions will continue to be dependent on the nature
of snow pack in the southern RRV as the stronger winds arrive
and temperatures drop closer to 10 or less later tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...Synopsis...

A cold front continues to move southward out of Manitoba this
afternoon, bringing light snow and gusty north winds into the
region. Look for the potential for blowing snow in areas that have
deeper snow pack, especially areas south of Highway 200. Cold high
pressure settles into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on
Wednesday, with high temps only expected to reach the single digits.
Lows Wednesday night into Thursday morning are likely to fall well
below zero for most areas, with the coldest spots being
collocated with the deeper snow pack in southeast North Dakota
and west central Minnesota. Heading into Thursday afternoon, a
weak shortwave brings a chance of light snow to the area along
the baroclinic zone. Probability for greater than 1 inch is
rather low, around 40 percent in northwest Minnesota, with lower
probs elsewhere. Several additional troughs move through the
area late Friday onward into the weekend and early next week.
Confidence is low in snowfall potential at this time; however,
there is good consensus supporting an active pattern through at
least the middle of next week.

...Gusty Winds and Patchy Blowing Snow Tonight...

North winds prevail following today`s cold front. The combination of
these winds, along with light snow, and a favorable wind direction,
could bring periods of low visibility overnight. Upstream
observations in Pembina County, as well as webcams in southern
Manitoba, show visibility as low as 1-2 miles this afternoon over a
relatively low snow pack. As the front passes through the southern
Red River Valley this evening, over the deeper snow pack, we could
see sharply reduced visibility, especially in open areas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

A cold front is moving through eastern ND and northwest MN, with
winds shifting to the north and increasing behind the front,
while MVFR stratus overspreads the region. Light snow is causing
brief vis reductions generally in the 3-6sm range (a few spots
below 3sm) but most of the snow should end as the upper wave
transitions south. The strongest winds from the north-northest
will arrive later this evening and may bring additional
visibility impacts due to blowing snow, with a 20% chance for
IFR visibilities over parts of the southern Red River Valley
(including KFAR). Any blowing snow impacts should end as the
strongest winds decrease Wednesday morning.

Ceilings are more uncertain however, as the mid level pattern
and presence of a cold pool aloft may support additional
MVFR stratocumulus development Wednesday morning/afternoon as
the initial area of stratus clears. All current guidance favors
VFR eventually prevailing by mid morning Wednesday in most of
eastern ND and northwest MN, but considering the pattern I was
more pessimistic with the timing of improvement west to east.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR