058
FXUS63 KFGF 282323
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
623 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering light rain showers this afternoon, mainly within
  Minnesota.

- Above average temperatures are forecast this weekend into next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...Synopsis...

Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a mid level shortwave
trough moving east-northeast through the Dakotas and Minnesota
amid quasi- southwesterly to zonal flow aloft. At the surface,
an occluded front is working its way west to east. Seasonably
rich moisture and even some instability resides east of the
surface front ahead of the shortwave trough. This is driving
scattered light showers within the Red River Valley and
Minnesota this afternoon. The window for additional
thunderstorms in west- central MN has closed with instability
already being shunted away to the east.

Tonight, a reinforcing cold front will reintroduce low stratus
to areas along and north of US Highway 2, with mostly clear
skies elsewhere. This along with increasing surface high
pressure nosing into the region and lightening winds may allow
temperatures to drop into the mid 20s within portions of eastern
ND.

Thursday will be seasonably cool with highs in the 40s and dry
amid the post-frontal air mass. Starting Friday, ensemble
guidance all points toward upper ridging building into the
Northern Plains. This will trend temperatures toward above
average, particularly by Saturday. The way this upper ridging
builds may also promote low stratus, fog/drizzle - this lowers
confidence in exactly how warm temperatures get. Should low
clouds/fog/drizzle linger, temperatures may be just slightly
above average with high temperatures in the 50s. However, if
skies clear, temperatures could soar well into the 60s -
especially on Sunday into Monday.

Getting into early to mid next week, ensemble guidance also
hints at an upper shortwave trough in the Southwest to either
translate or cut off eastward into the Southern and/or Central
Plains. While most of this forcing looks to remain south of our
area, there could be enough influence from this feature to bring
the next round of light rain into the forecast. With how warm
antecedent temperatures will be ahead of this feature, as well
as lack of colder air advecting behind it, rain would be the
favored precipitation type.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

For the time being MVFR conditions have largely cleared the
region. Clouds sag south across the intl border from the north
overnight bringing likley MVFR CIGS back to TVF and BJI starting
after 06z and through about 18z. Winds will be occasionally
over 12 kts with periodic gusts to 20kts through the night but
largely only the next 6 hours. Clearer skies likely for Friday
for a day of sun finally.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...TT