397
FXUS63 KFGF 290525
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1125 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow tonight into Saturday across far southeast North
  Dakota and parts of west central Minnesota. 35 percent chance
  of more than 3 inches in areas near the South Dakota border.

- Below average temperatures for the weekend and into next
  week, with low chances for some minor winter impacts towards
  the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

The main band of accumulating snow is continue to slowly work
to the west-southwest and is still in line to primarily miss
our CWA outside of far southeast ND, with trends matching
earlier forecast/adjustments. Minor adjustments once again were
made during this update, with the forecast on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 630 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Light radar returns in eastern ND and a few parts of northwest
MN have yet to result in more than virga or a few flurries, with
drier air aloft still in place below the stratus layer. Short
range/high resolution guidance still shows the northeast fringe
of this eventually brining accumulating snow to our far
southwest (near SD border) around midnight into the early
morning hours, which is in line with previous update/thoughts.
Only minor adjustments to general forecast were made during this
update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...Synopsis...

Large, positively tilted trough continues to dig down over the
Rockies, coming out into the Plains tonight. The main embedded
shortwave energy will be to the south across the Central Plains
into IA/IL. Main low will be well to the south, but inverted
trough will extend into our southern counties for a while
tonight and tomorrow. The surface high nudges in for Saturday
night, with northwesterly flow aloft. The northwesterly flow
continues into next week, with several weak reinforcing
shortwaves dropping heights and bringing cold air. The weak
shortwaves also could bring some periodic light snow, although
confidence is low on any impacts.

...Accumulating snow tonight and Saturday in the south...

Already starting to get some very light radar returns over our
far southwestern counties, but web cams show nothing reaching
the ground yet. There is decent agreement with the CAMs on
better radar returns entering after midnight. The HREF
probabilities of an inch or more are above 50 percent for most
of southeastern North Dakota into far west central MN, mainly
southwest of a Valley City to Kindred line. Think accumulating
snow is likely. Probabilities of 3 or more inches, drop down to
a small area of around 35 percent near the SD border, with
probabilities of over 4 inches around 20 percent. At this point,
best chances look to be in the 1 to 3 inch range, with just a
slight chance for advisory criteria. Still not certain enough
for headlines at this point as best chances for getting up to 3
or 4 inches are fairly limited in area. Winds will also not be
an issue, remaining under 10 mph.

...Cold temperatures and low chances for snow into next week...

ECMWF EFI has a pretty good signal for colder than average
temperatures as we move into next week, and this fits the mean
synoptic pattern. Not as strong of a signal for precipitation,
although the ensemble members do show various shortwaves moving
through, particularly towards the end of the period. Cold is
certain, any winter impacts from snow less so.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

MVFR stratus is already in place over much of northeast ND and
west central/northwest MN, with a few smaller areas of VFR. A
lot of guidance still does not have a good handle on the extent
of stratus based on obs and leaning towards the pessimistic (but
more representative) guidance shows MVFR eventually
filling in at all TAF sites in eastern ND/northwest MN early in
the TAF period. This would then prevail through much of the
evening, with clearing arriving in north central ND towards
northeast ND as much drier (and colder) air moves in with
northwest BL flow behind the departing mid level system.

This system is already brining lighter snow to parts of central
ND that is spreading southeast along a line from KDVL to
locations southwest of KFAR. The track will favor the best
chances for accumulating snow in far southeast ND, though
lighter accumulations (to 1") and brief vis reductions may still
occur at KFAR Saturday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR