868
FXUS63 KFGF 191942
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
142 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A more active and cooler pattern arrives next week, but the
  predictability of specific impacts is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...Synopsis...

Currently, surface low pressure is traveling across southern Canada.
To its south, a broad area of isentropic lift has sparked off
showers/light rain. Rain should end from southwest to northeast this
afternoon/evening. Stratus will remain, and with the
atmospheric column saturated from the surface to 800 mb, pockets
of drizzle will develop tonight on the MN side of the FA.
Thereafter, we will remain drier into the weekend as northwest
flow takes a firm hold over the region. There are hints of a
very subtle/weak shortwave Friday night into Saturday, but any
precipitation would be extremely light with no impacts.
Temperatures through the weekend will remain anywhere from a few
degrees above average to nearly 20 degrees above average. For
reference, average high temperatures are in the lower 30s pretty
much area wide by this time of November.

...Active and Cooler Next Week...

A pattern shift arrives early next week, with a trough digging over
the northwestern and eventually north central US. In turn, this will
bring a major cool down in temperatures. High temperatures from
Monday to Wednesday are forecasted to drop from the 40s to the
20s.

While there is high confidence in temperatures cooling down
substantially, the signal for snow is less clear. Ensembles are in
good agreement that the first period of interest for snow is Tuesday
into Tuesday night, as a surface low tracks somewhere along the
International Border. A track such as this has major implications as
for how much snow we receive, as our FA remains on the edge.
Therefore, a track just a bit more to the south would increase
snow in our northern FA. Being nearly a week out, there is
plenty of time to watch how this feature evolves.

As the low departs, drier weather will build in for Wednesday
into the Thanksgiving holiday. Even though it will be dry,
conditions will be breezy and cool. Confidence in the synoptic
pattern from Thanksgiving onwards is low, as ensembles show a
wide variety of scenarios.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Low stratus will remain the biggest aviation impact throughout
the TAF period. Stratus will bring IFR to at times LIFR to all
TAF sites except KFAR this afternoon. Very slowly, ceilings will
rise this evening into tonight as a drier northwesterly wind
behind a cold front develops. IFR ceilings will linger longest
at KTVF and KBJI, where the front will take the greatest amount
of time to reach. IFR ceilings will likely persist for most if
not the entire TAF period for those two terminals. Other then
ceilings, rain is pushing from southwest to northeast,
occasionally impacting terminals. Rain chances taper off this
afternoon in KDVL, taking until this evening at further east
terminals such as KTVF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Rafferty