360
FXUS63 KFGF 211208
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
708 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for near critical fire weather several days this
  week.

- Warming up this weekend with potential for heat impacts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Clearing is progressing nicely southward over the fcst area with
partly cloudy, mainly clear sky NE ND and NW MN upstream.
Soundings indicate likely CU today with daytime heating as there
is enough moisture near the 800 mb layer. Winds today look
breezy with gusts mid 20 kt range as we mix up to 780-800 mb
level. Coordination in regards to fire weather headlines, MIFC
would like one more day of SPS for near critical fire weather
due to winds today and still dry fuels, regardless of RH values.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper ridge that has been driving our region`s weather for the
past week or two has flattened some with the approach of a
seasonably strong upper shortwave trough moving through ON into
the northern Great Lakes region. This is allowing cooler,
relatively drier air into the region from the north behind a
series of cold fronts.

Behind these fronts today and tonight will allow temperatures
to be closer to average, as well as bringing gusty northwest /
north winds today, tonight, and Tuesday. Relatively cooler and
drier air aloft atop of seasonable low level moisture combined
with forcing aloft from the passing shortwave trough will allow
widely scattered showers and storms to encroach upon our area
from north to south, generally after 5 PM into this evening.
Increased momentum in the lower to mid level portions of the
cloud-bearing layer will allow gusty downdrafts resultant from
storms - some of which may be in the 40 to 50 mph range.

Winds will stay gusty overnight behind a reinforcing cold front
coincident with moderately strengthen surface pressure rises.
Winds reinvigorate out of the north Tuesday afternoon with the
help of daytime mixing and increased flow aloft lingering within
the region.

Daytime RH values starting tomorrow and lasting into mid to
late week are forecast in the 30-50% range. This combined with
gusty winds tomorrow, and potentially more gusty winds late in
the week combined with warming temperatures, will drive
potential to see fire weather concerns. This is also driven by
rapidly drying fuels within the region after recent spell of hot
and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 706 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

I do think scattered CU will develop today as we warm.
Sufficient moisture at 850 mb and convective temps low enough
upper 60s/low 70s. Better chance for BKN coverage CU is east of
the Red River, with potentially borderline VFR/MVFR ceilings for
a time at TVF and BJI. North winds 10-20 kt sustained gusts
25kts or so. Winds go calm tonight and sky mainly clear.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Riddle