864
FXUS63 KFGF 310432
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1132 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast
  today into tonight.

- Several periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected
  Monday through Friday, with better chances for wetting
  rainfall over more of the region. There is a low chance for
  severe thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Regional radar reveals some lingering pockets of light rain,
mainly within North Dakota. Dry air in the lower levels still is
helping most rain evaporate before reaching the ground, although
some higher returns have resulted in light rain/sprinkles thus
far this afternoon/early evening.

A complex of thunderstorms in South Dakota is forecast to push
into portions of central North Dakota and eastern South Dakota.
However, instability and forcing feeding this convection is
expected to sharply diminish as it pushes into southeast North
Dakota Sunday morning. This leads to the expectation of light
rain showers without lightning.

There is an additional chance for showers and general
thunderstorms Sunday late afternoon into evening. This activity
is not expected to be strong/severe, with main hazard being low
lightning activity.

Issued a Special Weather Statement for portions of north-central
Minnesota (namely Lake of the Woods and northern Beltrami
counties) due to the forecast of low relative humidity values
around 20 percent concurrent with southeast winds 10-15 mph.
Despite recent green-up of vegetation, latest reports on fuels
reveal variable susceptibility to fuels conducive for rapid
spread of fires.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

...Synopsis...

Strong ridging continues to influence the overall synoptic flow
pattern as a pronounced axis extends from the Upper Midwest,
northward into the northern Canadian Provinces. Weak shortwave
activity is traversing the western flank of the ridge, bringing
showers and isolated thunderstorms into the Northern Plains today
and Sunday. Looking slightly further west, H5 troughing is nearly
stationary today through Monday, but will begin to move slowly to
the east and northeast by mid week. This, along with slow weakening
of the H5 ridge, will allow southwest flow to develop, thus
encouraging the development of stronger shortwaves along the flow.
Ensembles show a range of potential solutions; however, there is
good agreement that a more active pattern is likely to develop
heading into the second half of next week. Zonal to northwest flow
develops next weekend, with a return to more seasonal temperatures.

...Showers and Thunderstorms Today Through Next Week...

Today: There is very little in the way of instability for
thunderstorm development. Areas with higher MUCAPE are situated too
far under the ridge to have access to any meaningful lift. The best
chance for isolated development will be in northeast North Dakota
and the northern Red River Valley, where low level lapse rates are a
bit higher.

Sunday: Western flank of the upper ridge remains in place just west
of the CWA. Isolated thunderstorm development could occur in
southeast North Dakota and the southern Red River Valley, mainly
during the late afternoon. Mid level lapse rates could support small
hail; however, lightning will be the main risk.

Monday-Friday: Upper ridging gradually weakens through the week,
with upper flow turning nearly zonal by mid week. Shortwave activity
will allow for a mention of thunderstorms nearly each day, with the
possibility for strong storms by Tuesday. ML products show a 5-15
percent chance for strong storms Tuesday and Wednesday. It is worth
noting, however, that shortwave timing is uncertain due to current
ensemble spread.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Overall, VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with
the exception of MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings in portions of
North Dakota Sunday morning. This includes KDVL where MVFR
ceilings are in the forecast after 15Z. There is also a 20%
chance for thunderstorms after 00Z Sunday afternoon/evening,
although confidence was not high enough to include in the TAFs
at this time. Additional chances for weak thunderstorms exists
just beyond the TAF period through Sunday overnight. Winds will
generally be out of the southeast 10-15kt, with the exception of
gustier winds 25kt in eastern ND, including KDVL, between
10Z-20Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...CJ