783
FXUS63 KFGF 290433
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1133 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance for fog tonight then quiet weather through the
  weekend.

&&


UPDATE
Issued at 1006 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A few showers remain in Wadena county but otherwise nothing
notable weatherwise ongoing. Some higher clouds are moving in
via shortwave forcing back in the western Dakotas and Montana
which limit radiational cooling and thus fog potential but will
wait and see.

UPDATE
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Scattered thunderstorms across west central Minnesota currently
though lightning is the only present hazard. Expecting these to
persist through the evening ending around midnight. Appears to
still be a chance for some localized fog tonight though
confidence in where is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...Synopsis...

Water vapor imagery shows broad upper ridging in the Northern
High Plains into interior Canada, with eastern Dakotas into
Minnesota under subsident, weak northwest flow aloft. At the
surface, a weak boundary can be seen via surface obs and radar.
This will provide low level convergence to help ignite showers
and weak storms this afternoon into early evening along the I-94
corridor into lakes country of west-central Minnesota.

Through the weekend, ensemble guidance continues to agree in
general weak flow aloft as upper ridging transitions west
through interior Canada into eastern Canada, sliding across the
northern fringes of weak upper troughing over the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic. The lingering boundary and sufficient low level
moisture will continue chance for scattered afternoon showers
and weak thunderstorms, generally south of the US Highway 2
corridor. This also promotes average to slightly above average
temperatures with daytime highs into the upper 70s to near 80.
Ensemble guidance also continues to agree in a weak mid level
wave sliding eastward through South Dakota into southern MN. The
vast majority of ensemble members keep this low`s precipitation
shield south of the ND/SD state line, however, there continues
to be a small subset of guidance that brushes light rain into
southeast ND and west- central MN Saturday into Sunday.

Upper ridging is replaced with troughing early to mid next
week as a shortwave trough digs into the Upper Midwest. This
brings a cold front and the next appreciable chance for
thunderstorms around Tuesday.


...Low chance for strong storms next Tuesday...

Ensemble guidance continues to agree in a shortwave trough
digging into the Upper Midwest early to mid next week, bringing
with it a cold front sweeping through the region in a generally
north to south fashion. This should provide sufficient forcing
for ascent to generate thunderstorms should moisture and
instabilty be present.

With the incoming shortwave trough, it is reasonable to believe
increased winds aloft will aid in increasing overall shear,
however specifics in this area remains in question.
The degree of moisture return to fuel potential thunderstorms
also continues to remain in question. This will have a direct
influence in the amount of instability to sustained robust
convection. Also, timing of the front is in question. A frontal
passage during peak heating of the day would better support
chance for stronger storms, compared to passage overnight or
early morning.

ML/AI guidance like FengWu and Pangu severe probabilities
outline the Dakotas into Minnesota both Monday and Tuesday, now
featuring a 5% contour stretching into our area. However, GEFS
probability for SCP greater than 1 and CAPE greater than 1000
J/kg have trended lower compared to yesterday, now around 10%.
This underscores uncertainties regarding instability and shear
spacing, in addition to timing of the front.

These aspects lower confidence in evolution and severity of
storms. With this lowered confidence, there continues to be
very little support to think this potential will feature
significant severe weather hazards.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

VFR conditions prevail tonight with a chance for patchy fog,
mainly at KGFK. Light and variable winds persist through much of
the overnight period and into Friday. Cloud cover will increase
as sunrise approaches, possibly bringing ceilings down into MVFR
territory through around mid morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Lynch