558
FXUS63 KFGF 270437
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1137 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a threat for isolated thunderstorms across north
  central MN near Lake of the Woods, with the primary threat for
  hail up to the size of golf balls.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

The Extreme Heat Warning was expired as scheduled.

Through the early morning hours there is still a lingering
threat for a severe thunderstorm to develop within the Lake of
the Woods region as a goo elevated instability and deep layer
shear are in place as a mid level shortwave passes. Elevated
supercells would support primarily a large hail threat, with any
severe threat in our northeast ending by 3 AM as this wave
pushes east-southeast of our area.

UPDATE
Issued at 849 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Hot temperatures around 90 with higher Tds in the low to middle
70s are resulting in heat index values 100-110 lingering over
parts of the Red River Valley and west central MN this evening.
Other locations are seeing gradual improvement. Where the
Extreme Heat Warning is in place represents the locations where
impacts are likely to linger and the warning was extended
through 11 PM CDT, while the advisories are being allowed to
expire as scheduled at the top of the hour.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

...Synopsis...

Expansive ridging remains dominate over the western/central
CONUS this Sunday afternoon. Our region is under its
northeastern most influence. Over the top of the ridge, a ridge
riding wave is passing to our north and east. This brings a
highly conditional threat for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening over portions of northwestern MN.
Persistent heat will continue into this week as ridging
remains present in some form.

...Heat Continues...

Today is another hot day. Temperatures have climbed into the
mid/upper 90s in the central and southern Red River Valley, and are
not far behind across much of the rest of the FA. Heat
headlines are in effect this afternoon, with the hottest
conditions expected in the central/southern Red River Valley.
As we go through the work week, ridging will remain in control
over the western/central US, although there are some
disagreements in its magnitude and exactly how far eastward its
axis sets up. Therefore, temperatures will remain above average,
with afternoon highs in the 90s across much of the FA until at
least midweek. Thereafter, depending on the ridges
amplitude/placement, temperatures will either slightly cool into
the 80s, or remain elevated into the 90s. It is during this
late week period NBM temperature spreads start to increase,
showcasing well ensemble model disagreement surrounding the
ridge.

...Severe Storms Today...

A persistent WAA regime has been in place over northwestern MN this
morning, allowing for storms to develop earlier today. However,
low level flow has been weakening into the early afternoon.
There is indication within some model guidance that flow will
increase slightly again later today during the evening hours as
a shortwave rounds the ridge. This may be enough forcing to get
a storm or two to develop. If a storm can form, effective shear
of over 40 knots and ample instability will help organize
storms, with supercells capable of severe hail being the primary
threat. It will be very difficult to get a storm to form
further south in west central MN, as this area is far from any
forcing and fighting a stout cap.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period, though
there is still a chance that brief visibility reductions could
occur due to wildfire smoke (most smoke should remain off the
surface). Current smoke layer is likely in the 10-25 kft range
based on latest data. Winds are variably currently as surface
low pressure and several fronts move through the region, with
west-northwest winds eventually prevailing. Winds do increase to
12-15kt during the daytime period Monday, with occasional gusts
to 20kt.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...DJR