020
FXUS63 KFGF 141221
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
721 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms this
  evening into tonight and for west central Minnesota Tuesday
  afternoon. The main hazards will be gusty winds, hail, and
  flash flooding.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025


Mid level showers continue to develop over northeast ND and far
northwest in developing 850 mb warm advection pattern. Also due
to presence of 50-60 kt 500 mb jet along the border. These
showers will probably be scattered much of the day mainly north
of Hwy 2. Will have to see where surface temp gradient and wind
direction gradient sets up. Looks to be very close to DVL-GFK-
BJI today. Do expect a partly cloudy/mostly sunny day south of
Hwy 2 after any morning mid clouds. It looks like sfc based
t-storm development may be inhibited in the warm sector, close
call though as capping may go away right near the frontal zone.
Otherwise will have to depend on 850 mb warm advection with
SSW 35 kts over a northeast wind sfc layer to be the focus for
t-storm development overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...Synopsis...

At 500 mb we have a 50-60 kt 500 mb jet that is moving west to
east along the International border this early morning and
progged to drop gradually south over time tonight into Tuesday.
This is as a short wave in northern Alberta movfes south the
next 24-36 hours.

A few rain showers from mid cloud will be over northeast ND into
far northwest MN this morning, very light, in an area of 850 mb
warm advection which is situated along the Intl border.

..Severe Storm Risk late today/night and again Tuesday...

A frontal zone separating much warmer air to the south vs cooler
air north will be over northern ND into far northern MN today.
The surface boundary is ill-defined to start today, but will
become better established as southerly flow sfc to 850 mb
strengthens this aftn. Expect high temps upper 80s to around 90
south of Hwy 2, with the likely frontal zone boundary setting up
near Highway 2 this aftn. Showers will remain possible north of
this developing boundary this morning, with scattered showers
and t-storms north of the boundary this aftn.

South of the boundary in the very warm airmass, look for dew pts
to climb well into the 60s with MUCAPE over 2000 j/kg. Soundings
do show a warm layer just above 850 mb, and this warm layer does
likely keep any convection at bay until very late afternoon and
evening when depending on temps cap may break. CAMs indicate
this to be in central or east central ND. The front will
continue to sag south tonight with a good chance of showers and
t-storms most areas as it does so. Severe risk is most likely
tied to very late aftn and evening when instability is maxed
out. 0-6 km shear is 35-45 kts near the boundary. Near or just
south of the frontal zone brief supercells may form, but will be
isolated in coverage due to warm layer. Expectation is t-storms
will grow into tonight with a modest 850 mb jet of 25-30 kts
advecting in moisture near and just north of the frontal zone as
it sags south. Would think that any supercell development is
short lived before more clusters of t-storms form. Severe
potential may continue past 06z.

Tuesday will see the frontal zone sag southeast into west
central MN in the aftn. South of the frontal zone instability
will develop but this time more focused in northeast, central
into southwest MN into eastern SD in the aftn. Frontal zone may
be close enough to west central MN so that an isolated severe
storm is possible mid afternoon but overall majority of the
instability and storm action is likely south/southeast of fcst
area.

PWATs do approach 2 inches tonight with 850 mb front and south
winds farther north than the sfc boundary. Thus some overruning
occurring and most model data suggests that far northern MN may
see heaviest rainfall tonight with a 30 pct chance of 1 inch or
more from NBM.

Wendesday will see continued shower in the cooler airmass well
north of the front as a short wave moves east thru the area.

Late week into the weekend shows that the 500 mb will remain
westerly with short waves continuing to pass thru the area every
couple of days bringing rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 712 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Mid cloud showers and mid cloud bases thru the day Hwy 2
corridor. Scattered clouds south of Hwy 2. Risk of a t-storm
increases overnight esp GFK and south. Winds near DVL, GFK, BJI
right near a front today may be variable at times in
direction...but in general thinking light south-southeast
turning northeast this aftn. South winds Fargo into the
evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle