066
FXUS63 KFGF 110426
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1126 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms late Friday
  afternoon into the evening for portions of west central into
  north central Minnesota and far southeast North Dakota.
  Storms will be capable of producing all hazards.

- There is a high chance for soaking rainfall Sunday night into
  Monday night across the region which could impact outdoor
  activities.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

A warm afternoon is ongoing, with temperatures ranging from the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Responsible for this warmth is an upper
level ridge, but it will not last long. A deepening trough and
area of low pressure to our northwest will drive a strong cold
front through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Friday. High
temperatures will vary considerably across the FA, ranging from
the 60s in the Devils Lake Basin, to near 90 in the southern
Red River Valley, where the front will not propagate through
until mid or even late afternoon. Along the front, forcing
should be sufficient for thunderstorm development, some of which
may become strong to severe. Thereafter, temperatures will
remain seasonably cool into the weekend. Moisture will advect
northward late Sunday into Monday ahead of a strong upper level
low to our west that will bring widespread rainfall to end the
weekend and start the work week. Temperatures will remain
seasonal to just a few degrees cooler than seasonal into next
week.

...Near Critical Fire Weather this Afternoon...

For areas experiencing the most severe impacts from drought in
southeastern ND, fuels have dried considerably. RH values this
afternoon have dropped as low as 20 percent. Combine these
factors with a steady 10 to 20 mph southerly breeze and near
critical fire weather conditions are ongoing, and will continue
through sunset.

...Severe Storms Friday...

Ahead of a strong cold front, an axis of instability (2000+
J/Kg of MUCAPE) will be in place over far southeastern ND into
much of west central and northwestern MN. Overhead, increasing
midlevel west to southwest winds will improve shear profiles,
promoting 40 knots or so of effective shear. Shear profiles will
likely vary across the FA. Hodographs show this well, with
southern areas containing low level curvature, while northern
areas (approximately US Highway 2 north) feature straighter
hodographs. This will play into hazard type, with SPC
probabilities highlighting a 5% tornado risk extending from
southern Beltrami County southward throughout the Lakes Country,
within the area of better low level shear. With shear
orientation off the initiating front, supercells at least
initially are expected, but the strength of forcing and
splitting storms in the north may result in a messier cluster
mode within a few hours of convective initiation.

While the environment in west central MN certainly has a higher
ceiling due to the shear profiles and richer instability, there
are questions on if storms will form. This concern is two fold.
First, if the front pushes through a bit faster (some latest
CAMs are showing this, especially within the REFS), storms may
not form in our area, but rather our eastern border into
DLH/MPX`s areas. Second, soundings indicate that capping will be
present, with capping becoming stronger the further south you
go within the FA. Therefore, if a combination of a faster
front/stronger capping comes into play, the severe risk will
become more limited in west central MN, leaving more of a
hail/wind risk in the north.

...Soaking Rainfall Early Next Week...

A large upper low over the Pacific Northwest will propagate
eastward towards the Northern Plains late Sunday into Monday.
There is some uncertainty in where the deformation band will set
up, with NBM probabilities in the 50 to 70 percent range across
the entire FA. Instability while present, will not be
sufficient for any severe weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR skies through the morning with a cold front slowly working
into the area shift winds N/NW for all sites by 00z.
Thunderstorms will be expected the front after 4pm but
positioning of the front is still uncertain. Put a tempo in
KBJI as confidence has increased with timing now looking to keep
storms east of KFAR. CIGS remain VFR through the period but
could drop into MVFR with strong cells if they pass over KBJI.
Winds 10-15kts tomorrow with gusts 20-25kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...TT