546
FXUS63 KFGF 112356
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
656 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds gusting to 55 mph are expected Tuesday, and a
  Wind Advisory is in effect. There is a chance for strong wind
  gusts greater than 45 mph again Thursday as another front
  passes through region during the daytime and evening periods.

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected through early
  evening across eastern North Dakota, and a Red Flag Warning is
  in effect. Near critical fire weather conditions are
  occurring across northwest and west central Minnesota.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected
  over parts of the region each afternoon Tuesday through
  Saturday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect Tuesday afternoon
  and early evening for parts of eastern North Dakota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

A few quick updates to the forecast. The first is that the Red
Flag Warning was expanded into the Red River Valley on the MN
side through 8 PM. Winds and RH values have both reached the
threshold for critical fire weather, with RH values as low as
the mid teens. Conditions will improve after sunset as RH
values recover.

Secondly, a narrow corridor of MUCAPE of up to 500 J/kg
stretches northward across central ND, about two counties wide
from west to east. With a cold front passing through providing
forcing and just enough moisture to work with, the environment
supports a thunderstorm or two to form. Over an hour ago, one
such cell developed near the KMBX radar northeast of Minot.
Rainfall amounts are meager under this storm (an NDAWN recorded
0.06" in McHenry County), but erratic/elevated winds due to
inverted V soundings and lightning are supported as this cell
propagates eastward. There are signs of some CI attempts further
north in Bottineau County, and across the border into Manitoba,
CA as well. Throughout this evening, this activity will push
into the Devils Lake Basin, eventually reaching the northern Red
River Valley after sunset, where waning instability should
limit lightning/thunder potential in time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...Synopsis...

Large scale pattern features strong ridging across the southwest
US, shortwave ridging over the Northern Plains ahead of a
shortwave trough in west-northwest flow. A progressive quasi-
zonal pattern will remain in place through early next week, with
warmer/above average temperatures through Saturday. Shortwave
trough passages within this pattern will be fast moving, and
deeper moisture return will tend to remain cutoff to the south
of our region, lowering the potential for soaking rains or
organized convection. Temperatures do begin to cool back to the
60s after the warmer temperatures (70s/80s) late week. This is
still within the lower bound of seasonal ranges. The main
impacts will be related to the frontal passages with these
shortwave this week and periods of dry/windy conditions (fire
weather concerns and strong wind impacts).

...Strong winds this week...

A Wind Advisory is in effect from 9am CDT to 7pm CDT Tuesday.
Unidirectional flow within the increasing mixed layer in the post
frontal air mass Tuesday will support strong wind gusts (45-55
mph) across much of the Red River Valley and locations west.
ECMWF EFI is 0.8 along the Red River Valley into west central MN
(good indication of near Warning gust potential) and NBM 24hr
gust probs show a signal for gusts 58mph+, though it is not a
widespread signal. Stratus exiting/clearing west to east could
complicate mixing for parts of northwest/west central MN. Based
on current mixed layer winds/peak winds near the top of the
mixed layer most locations should remain below warning criteria
(58mph+), however a few gusts around that value could be
expected. Uncertainty though regarding the areal extent,
frequency, and location of those gusts lowered confidence in
warning issuance.

Thursday is another day to watch for potential strong wind impacts
with another frontal passage as a trough moves into the region.
ECMWF EFI once again shows values 0.8 or higher and model mixed
layer winds support at least gusts in the 45-55 mph range once
again.

...Fire weather impacts this week...

Today: RH values from the upper teens to mid 20s are being
reported over much of the region this afternoon, with winds
gusting 30 to 40 mph across eastern ND. Winds have been slower
to increase in MN as expected but less frequent/localized gusts
to 25 mph can be expected along the Red River Valley in MN (15
to 20 mph east of the valley) before RH values recover this
evening. Red Flag Conditions are expected to continue through
early evening in ND and near critical conditions in
northwest/west central MN.

Tuesday: Low cloud cover will initially delay the increase in
temperatures and where it lingers limit potential daytime heating
mixing in northwest MN. In central ND and parts of eastern ND
clearing skies are expected and deeper mixing will support Tds
falling below 40F. Where temperatures reach the upper 60s/lower
70s in ND RH values are likely to fall below 30%, and
considering the stronger winds critical fire weather would be
expected. This is most likely from parts of the Devils Lake
basin to southeast ND, where a Red Flag Warning has been issued
for the afternoon/early evening period. There is much less
confidence in the northern Red River Valley of ND. RH values are
more likely to remain above 30% in our MN based on current
data, however due to the strong winds near critical fire weather
conditions are still likely within the Red River Valley of MN
and parts of west central MN as skies clear/temperatures
increase.

The rest of the week: Warm temperatures and low RH values 30% or
lower are expected over at least parts of the region through
Saturday. The lowest RH values of the week may be Wednesday,
however that day features the lightest winds. Thursday carries
the next best chance for Red Flag Conditions dependent on
mixing heights (better chances may be in ND than in northwest
MN).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

A very complicated TAF period as showers, thunderstorms, MVFR
ceilings, and high winds all bring aviation impacts throughout
the next 24 hours. First, a thunderstorm west of KDVL looks to
remain DSTN over the next couple of hours as it tracks eastward.
However, additional shower activity is expected to develop over
the next hour or two, which will impact northern terminals this
evening into tonight. Southerly winds will decrease initially
overnight, then increase rapidly out of the northwest later
tonight into Tuesday morning as a cold front swings through.
Wind gusts of well over 30 knots are forecasted from mid Tuesday
morning throughout Tuesday afternoon. Additionally, KGFK, KTVF
and KBJI will have to deal with MVFR ceilings for varying
lengths of time from late tonight into Tuesday. MVFR ceilings
should burn off at KGFK by early afternoon and linger at KBJI
throughout the afternoon. There is considerable uncertainty in
if ceilings will break up at KTVF or not, as the terminal will
likely ride the line much of the afternoon of persistent
ceilings to the northeast and clearer skies to the south and
west.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006-014-
     015-024-026-028-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ001>004-007-
     027-029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...Rafferty