041
FXUS63 KFGF 161225
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
725 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon in
  parts of west central Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Remaining clouds have mostly cleared out of NE ND, and will
gradually clear out of NW MN as well thru the early to mid
morning. 850 mb moisture and soundings indicate probably some
high based CU development with daytime heating today in NW MN,
perhaps in parts of northeast ND. Outside of this a mostly sunny
day. Will need to watch for patchy fog forming in areas that
clear out as winds though not calm are very light as high
pressure builds in. HRRR remains not aggressive with fog
development except for a rew random patches in NW MN.

Monday frontal system looks to move through quickly from
northwest to southeast entering NE ND in the morning and exiting
WC MN by late afternoon. Thus chances for showers and a few
t-storms will be more morning/midday in E ND and far NW MN and
afternoon in WC MN and it is in parts of west central MN where
MU CAPES of 1500-2000 j/kg develop by mid afternoon and may
result in a chance for strong or locally severe storms. This
area is Fergus Falls to Park Rapids and south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...Synopsis...

The large scale pattern features broad ridging across the
southern CONUS, which has flattened in response to a trough
moving over Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Surface low pressure and
a cold front are moving over our region currently with scattered
showers over northwest MN. There is a narrow corridor of
elevated instability that could support a few strong storms,
however marginal shear and skinny/elevated CAPE profiles will
limit the strength of updrafts. Another mid level trough moves
across Canada Monday into Tuesday, and eventually deepens near
the Hudson Bay region, resulting in a shift to more northwest
flow and cooler temperatures (70s for highs). By late next week
ridging is shown by ensembles to begin to build back into the
Northern plains though the strongest height rises remain south.
This should bring above average temperatures back to the region
and on the backside of the ridge either a west or southwesterly
flow aloft. That could support additional progressive waves and
rebuilding instability towards our region, though there remains
higher spread in details.

...Severe Thunderstorm Risk Monday...

The strongest part of the upper trough remains north of our
region, and there is still quite a bit of spread regarding the
timing of PVA/forcing along the base of the upper low in Canada.
There is at leas a signal for showers and thunderstorms with
40-60% probabilities for wetting rain (0.1"+). However, the
potential for severe thunderstorm impacts will depend on the
timing of both the larger scale forcing and surface
features/mesoscale details which are still carrying lower
predictability/higher spread with multiple scenarios on
location, timing, coverage of severe coverage. Machine learning
and AI based systems still highlight a 5%+ potential for severe
storms Monday afternoon into Monday night in southeast ND
towards parts of west central and northwest MN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 723 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The big question today is clearing of lower clouds over NW MN.
This affects TVF TAF site with this area on the west edge of low
clouds moving from north to south. BJI as well as there are
holes in the clouds upstream. So those two sites will be the
main forecast challenges this TAF period. Rest of the area will
have some scattered CU today. Increasing clouds late tonight of
the mid cloud variety. Winds northwest 8 to 14 kts today then
light/variable by 00z as high moves in.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch/Riddle
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...Riddle