564
FXUS63 KFGF 111142
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
642 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat index values are expected this weekend. Air
  temps in the mid to upper 90s are expected Saturday, with heat
  indices ranging from 95-105 degrees. For Sunday and Monday,
  hotter temperatures are expected, with air temps in the upper
  90s to low 100s and heat index values of 105-110 degrees.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 409 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Only change was to add heat advisory for the remaining west
central MN counties. Heat indices will be 93 to 100 Fergus
Falls, Wadena and Elbow Lake and with WBGT temps 80-83 and heat
risk level 2 and 3 made sense to expand heat advisory into these
areas as similar conditions farther north in MN where heat
advisory was issued is the same. A few mid level showers
developed around Minot prior to 2 am and a couple remain but are
weakening in central ND and DVL area where some low pops thru
11z were added. Blended in a bit lower temps from strict NBM
values this weekend as HI of 118 in Hallock seemed a bit high.
But it didnt change messaging of dangerous heat. Dayshift will
look at headlines for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...Synopsis...

Today, afternoon temps continue to build into mid 80s to low 90s
under mostly sunny skies and light winds. The warmest temps this
afternoon will be in the Red River Valley. Overnight lows fall into
the 60s tonight into Saturday morning, which will represent the
coolest temperatures most will see through at least the middle of
next week.

A strong H5 ridge builds into the Central Plains tonight into
Saturday, then into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday
into Monday. Anomalies in the 3-4 sigma range (H5 heights of 597-
600dm) are expected by Monday morning, centered over eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota. Temperatures are expected to respond
accordingly, with highs in the middle to upper 90s on Saturday and
upper 90s to low 100s on Sunday and Monday. Heat index values will
approach or exceed the 100 degree mark each day through at least
Monday. Heading into Tuesday, the ridge is expected to weaken
slightly, with zonal flow continuing into mid week. Cooler temps are
possible Tuesday across most of the area, with the southern Red
River Valley still seeing the potential for heat index values of 100
degrees or higher. Wednesday through Friday, temps return to the
upper end of the standard deviation for July, generally in the upper
80s to near 90 degrees.

...Dangerous Heat This Weekend into Monday...

Saturday: Air temperatures on Saturday will reach the middle to
upper 90s, with dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s. This will
allow heat index values to reach the upper 90s to low 100s Saturday
afternoon and early evening, with wet bulb globe temps in the middle
to upper 80s. This represents High to Extreme heat risk Saturday
afternoon. Overnight low temps Saturday night into Sunday morning
are expected to remain in the low 70s across most of the area.

Sunday and Monday: Air temperatures Sunday and Monday will be
hotter, with most locations seeing upper 90s to low 100s, and dew
points in the upper 60s to low 70s. Heat index values are expected
to be in the 105-110 degree range, with some locations in the
northern Red River Valley seeing a tangible risk of 110-115 degree
heat indices. Looking at wet bulb globe temps, widespread upper 80s
are expected, representing Extreme heat risk for most of eastern
North Dakota, northwest Minnesota, and parts of west-central
Minnesota. Additionally, low temps will remain quite warm overnight,
with some spots only cooling into the upper 70s Sunday night into
Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Patchy ground fog at a few sites. Otherwise will be VFR today
into tonight and with more wind tonight shouldnt be any ground
fog. Few to scattered mid level CU. Winds consistent south-
southeast increasing to 10-20 kts most areas, a few higher gusts
in E ND this aftn.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday morning through late Monday
     night for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
     052>054.
MN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday morning through late Monday
     night for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Riddle