267
FXUS63 KFGF 131856
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
156 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a high chance for wetting rainfall Monday across the
  region which could impact outdoor activities.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Surface high pressure dominates the region this afternoon,
offering ample sunshine, lights winds, and temperatures in the
60s. These conditions extend through tonight, with a slight
increase in winds from the south. This will help temperatures
from tanking into the 30s, with low temperatures forecast into
the 40s. This should also help limit the chance for frost,
however, there may be some localized spots in northwest MN near
Lake of the Woods to Red Lakes area should winds stay calm with
the help of denser tree cover.

Still on track for widespread rainfall and gusty winds Monday
morning, generally after 8 AM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...Synopsis...

Fall-like pattern is firmly entrenched into the region behind
yesterday`s cold front and today`s continued weak cold air
advection. Aloft, a zonal jet moves through offering some weak
forcing for ascent in southeast ND, bringing a low chance for a
band of light rain to this area. However, there is dry air it
will need to overcome, and thus expecting not much rainfall from
this - less than two tenths of an inch.

Surface high pressure into the region Sunday will keep
conditions pleasant and fall-like with high temperatures again
in the 60s, along with ample sunshine and light winds.

A stronger upper shortwave trough turning closed low moves
through the northern High Plains into south-central Canada on
Monday. This will bring a plume of moisture and forcing as it
approaches the region to the majority of the Dakotas and
Minnesota. This will also bring gusty winds both ahead and
behind the wave - highest at least 40 mph likely within eastern
ND into the Red River Valley.

Looking into mid to late next week, ensemble`s evolution of the
upper pattern shows signs of upper ridging, indicating at
temperature trend that may gradually increase. However, the lack
of more robust upper ridging means we should not see a drastic
increased trend in temperatures, likely keeping them closer to
average to slightly above average.

...High chance for wetting rainfall...

All guidance agrees in a leading plume of moisture and lift
overspreading our entire region on Monday, lending toward the
thought of widespread stratiform rainfall for majority of the
area. Within this plume will also likely be weak instability,
offering convective elements to percolate within the widespread
stratiform rainfall. This should bring at least a wetting
rainfall to majority of the region (at least a couple of tenths
of an inch).

However, a recent trend in the heart of synoptic forcing via
the deformation zone/center of vorticity to keep it within
Canada means this may be the only opportunity for widespread
rainfall, while also limiting higher end amounts. While there is
a scenario that offers rainfall amounts more than 1 inch, they
will likely be more spotty/isolated due to convective elements
needed, if it occurs in our area at all.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Aviation impacts are forecast from LLWS, gusty winds, ceilings
MVFR to IFR, and widespread rainfall. There is medium to high
confidence in this occurring after 12Z Monday morning. LLWS at
2kft of 50 kt is forecast for sites like KFAR, KGFK, and KTVF.
While not mentioned in the TAF, there is a low chance for
lightning to occur after 15Z Monday, accompanying SHRAs.

Prior to 12Z, VFR conditions with light winds under 10kt are
forecast through at least 12Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006-
     007-014-015-024-026-028-054.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...CJ