886
FXUS63 KFGF 011311
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
711 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below average temperatures continue this week as arctic air
  pushes southward into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest,
  with periodic light snow and flurry chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 711 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

The stratus deck over MN has produced flurries on and of at
observation sites the past couple of hours. In addition, the
Devils Lake area has been getting flurries on the north and east
shores, as southwest winds are promoting a little lake effect.
Therefore, added a mention of flurries into the forecast for
both of these regions. Otherwise, the forecast remains on
track, with temperatures in the single digits on either side of
zero to start the day off.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...Synopsis...

Overall, the upper air pattern changes very little throughout this
week, with northwest flow remaining predominate throughout the
forecast period. Several system riding this flow will pass
through, the strongest appearing to be late week. Each system
will bring a reinforcing shot of arctic air on the backside,
keeping temperatures below average.

...Below Average Temperatures and Light Snow...

There are a couple of players driving the weather over the Northern
Plains early this morning. First is an area of high pressure
situated over over southwestern MN, pushing to the south and east.
This high resulted in very cold overnight minimum temperatures
around midnight. The coldest values occurred in southeastern ND,
where the closer proximity to the high, clear skies and a deep
snowpack resulted in values as low as -16F degrees. As the high
departs, water vapor indicates a very weak shortwave to our
northwest that will pass through today. While this wave will not
bring any meaningful precipitation, it will likely keep cloud cover
(a mix of cirrus and stratus) a bit more prevalent.

Our first real weather maker in the seven day period arrives on
Tuesday. A weak low pressure system/clipper looks to track through
the region, initially ushering in slightly warmer temperatures,
albeit its important to note values will still be a couple of
degrees below average for early December. As the clipper passes
through, light snow will break out, but limited moisture will keep
snowfall totals on the light side (under 2 inches). As the cold
front swings through Tuesday evening, temperatures will plummet,
resulting in high temperature values in the single digits for
Wednesday. Northerly winds will also be breezy to windy, lasting
into Wednesday afternoon.

Thereafter, we remain stuck in northwest flow, so its a rinse and
repeat pattern to end the week. High pressure meanders east
Wednesday night into the Thursday, resulting in our FA seeing
warming out ahead of another system developing in the lee of the
Montana Rockies. Model guidance disagrees on the exact track this
late week system will take, but this one looks to have more moisture
to work with. Plenty to monitor as this system nears. And of course,
as the low departs, yet another arctic high works down,
resulting again in a significant cooldown for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 558 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

MVFR cloud deck is pushing through KFAR and KBJI this morning,
with KTVF teetering on the edge. These MVFR ceilings will hang
on throughout the TAF period at KBJI, but we should see some
improvement at KFAR as we work through the morning hours. VFR
at all other terminals. KDVL has been experiencing a few lake
effect flurries all night due to the southeast wind. Added a
PROB30 of -SN to account for this over the next several hours.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Rafferty