928
FXUS63 KFGF 010430
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1130 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief period of mostly dry conditions before daily chances for
  showers and storms starting Thursday into the Fourth of July
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...Synopsis...

Well established upper low lingers in central MB, with subsident
southwesterly flow over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Much drier air mass at the surface compared to yesterday will
keep conditions mostly dry (save some light showers in northeast
ND and northwest MN closer to the upper low) today and Wednesday.
Breezy winds will also be present, along with temperatures near
average in the 70s and 80s.

Ensemble guidance doesn`t migrate the MB upper low eastward
until around Thursday. This is when ensemble guidance strongly
suggests one or more low amplitude shortwave trough/s move out
of the Rockies into the Northern Plains amid broad upper
troughing/southwesterly flow. This will allow for gradual return
of low level moisture back into the Dakotas, leading to medium
to high chance for showers and storms late Thursday. At this
time, there is a low chance for storms to be strong to severe,
particularly if they organize and move eastward out of central
Dakotas; however, predictability is low in exactly how much
moisture, instability, and wind shear will be available to
sustain organized convection as it enters into eastern ND and
northwest/west-central MN.

Ensemble guidance agrees in generally meager southwesterly flow
aloft late this week turning more zonal by the end of the
weekend as upper ridging attempts to establish itself in the
Great Basin/Southwest. This will continue daily chances for
showers and storms into the Fourth of July holiday weekend as
moisture and warmer temperatures gradually increase into our
area. There continues to be a chance that some storms during
this period could be strong to severe, although a lack of more
robust instability and wind shear limits the upper end of
potential severe. Of course, important mesoscale features and
subsequently uncertain convective evolution markedly lowers
predictability when assessing potential hazards at this time.

Previous messaging of potential heat impacts during the Fourth
of July has trended downward. However, there is still a chance
for minor heat-related impacts driven by a chance for temperatures
into the 90s and dew points into the mid 60s to perhaps 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period across
eastern ND and northwest MN. Elevated light showers or weakening
thunderstorms may move into far southeast ND and west central
MN in the 10-15Z period Wednesday morning, however chances at
TAF sites are all under 20%. South to southwest winds 10kt or
less should increase above 12kt by late morning during daytime
heating as low pressure lingers over southern Manitoba,
decreasing with standard diurnal timing in the early evening.
Wind gusts are not expected to reach 30kt during the afternoon
Wednesday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...DJR