301
FXUS63 KFGF 112106
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
406 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather continues this afternoon into the
  early evening across portions of west central and northwest
  Minnesota.

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected tonight
  through Sunday night with potential impacts to outdoor
  activities.

- Gusty winds are expected across much of eastern North Dakota
  and parts of northwest Minnesota. There is a 60 percent chance
  for wind gusts of 40mph or higher.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...Synopsis...

Ridging moves off to the east this afternoon and evening, with H5
troughing taking shape across Montana. An upper low is expected to
close off later this evening in southern Saskatchewan, then move
east into Manitoba through the day Sunday. Strong warm air and
moisture advection prevails ahead of the upper low along southwest
flow. Wind gusts could exceed 45 mph out of the south Sunday morning
into midday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through
much of the day and into Sunday evening before moving east on
Monday. Strong cold air advection will combine with sharp pressure
rises and good mixing Sunday afternoon, leading to gusty west to
northwest winds as the low continues eastward. Overall a windy day
with showers and isolated storms through much of Sunday. Much cooler
temperatures prevail in the wake of the cold front passage on
Monday, with highs on Tuesday in the 40s to low 50s after morning
lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Slightly warmer temperatures
return for Wednesday and Thursday, along with a return to a more
active and wetter pattern.

...Gusty Winds Through Late Sunday Evening...

Strong pressure gradients prevail today ahead of an approaching
upper low. Look for south to southeast winds ranging from 15-25 mph
with gusts to 35 mph this afternoon. These winds remain elevated
overnight, then increase further heading into Sunday morning. Wind
gusts on Sunday could reach upwards of 50 mph, with a 60 percent
chance of 40 mph or higher. It is worth noting that R-Climate is
near maximum values for wind and near minimums for pressure. This is
in line with strong support for good momentum transfer potential,
with max winds possibly reaching to near warning thresholds.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites this afternoon, with
MVFR ceilings working into the area from west to east this
evening. Scattered showers are possible during the late evening
period with more widespread rain during the remainder of the
overnight hours. Ceilings could approach IFR during this time.
Winds are expected to remain elevated through much of the
period, with gusts up to 30 knots possible for most areas. LLWS
will be present starting late this afternoon, which is likely
to persist into Sunday morning due to a 45-50 knot low level
jet.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-053-054.
MN...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-022-027-029-030.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch