458
FXUS63 KFGF 241215
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
715 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions all of eastern North
  Dakota and northwest and west central Minnesota today with
  lowest RH values 20 to 28 percent and fuels remain dry.

- Soaking rain a possibility in many areas late Sunday thru
  Monday. 48 hour probability of 1 inch of more of rain is
  greater than 50 percent southeast North Dakota into much of
  Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 714 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Updated for 12z Aviation discussion.

UPDATE
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Winds today much less, but dry airmass in place just off the
surface so despite cooler temperatures thinking is widespread
afternoon RH values this afternoon in the 20-28 percent range.
Went a bit lower on Td than NBM. HRRR is lower with RH and
Td, with mid teens percent in parts of the valley.

Left in a chance of a few showers late this afternoon and
evening in eastern ND, but support seems weak.

Main weather ahead is a good chance for a widespread significant
rainfall event late Sunday into early Tuesday over the forecast
area. Chance of 1 inch or more of rain is in the 50-70 percent
range south of a Baudette-Grand Forks-Cooperstown line.


UPDATE
Issued at 947 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Winds will continue to diminish this evening with colder
temperatures working their way into the region. Severe storm
potential has ended as well as instability has shifted west.
Quiet weather will continue through the overnight hours.

UPDATE
Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A line of showers/storms has developed over Beltrami/Lake of the
Woods County and may be periodically producing pea size hail.
The instability axis continues to slide eastward this afternoon
and is almost clear of our area. A marginal risk of severe
storms remains as effective bulk shear remains 35-45 knots,
however CAPE profiles are very skinny and thin updrafts are
getting sheared away, so the probability at this time is fairly
limited.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...Synopsis...

Currently a surface low pressure system is sitting on the North
Dakota and Canadian Border. Two cold fronts are extending off
it, one moving east through the Red River Valley, and the other
one surging through western and central ND. Aloft the low is
tilted to the west over the colder air. Winds will continue to
increase this afternoon and into the overnight, so the fire
weather concerns remain across the forecast area. Current
relative humidities are around 30 percent, with winds now
gusting near 30mph. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect
through 7pm. Winds behind the first cold front are turning to
the west, while winds ahead of the front are from the south. The
Wind Advisory also remains in effect until 9pm with diurnal
heating dying and the cold front passing.

Along this cold front there still remains a level 1 out of 5
risk for severe storms this evening in northwestern and north
central MN. Expected hazards are 1 inch hail and 60mph winds.
With the mean wind mostly parallel with the cold front, the
expected storm mode will mostly be linear if storms get going.
CAPE values will only be around 700 J/kg, with bulk shear around
40kts. Most of the CAMs have the line of storms firing just
west of Bemidji sometime between 3pm and 5pm, then moving east
with the front.

This weekend will be much cooler with on and off rain. The
upper level low is forecast to just sit and spin in southern
Canada through Monday morning. This will keeps us in the active
cyclonic flow, along with cooler temperatures being pulled in
from Canada. Expect daytime highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s
with breezy winds. Most of the weekend will include at least a
slight (20 percent) chance of rain. Sunday a large trough digs
south through the West Coast, leading to southwest flow over the
Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi River Valley. This will
also form a Colorado Low that will bring widespread rain to the
area. Most model outcomes have the timing being across ND and
MN Sunday afternoon through Monday evening.

Looking at next week, the earlier low pressure system could
linger in central Canada, possibly leading to more cyclonic
flow, and cooler temperatures. A shortwave and collocated cold
front could spin off of the low mid week, and move in from the
north. This could create more chances of rain and breezy winds.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 714 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

VFR conditions thru tonight. Cloud bases look to be mostly at or
above 10k feet agl with a mix of high clouds and mid clouds.
Brief cloud layer down to 6000 ft agl possible. West winds 8-15
kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux/Riddle
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DJR