966
FXUS63 KFGF 181725
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 40 percent chance for 0.25 inch of rain across
  portions of northwest Minnesota Sunday night through Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Skies have been clearing all morning, with temperatures
currently in the 50s area wide. We will likely see some clouds
fill back in diurnally this afternoon. Very few changes were
made to the going forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 931 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Winds are slowly picking up, and are still on track to gust to
35 mph in northeastern ND this afternoon. Otherwise the few
very localized patches of fog that developed in Lakes Country
around sunrise seem to be burning off quickly. No major changes
to the forecast at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 634 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

The forecast remains on track this morning with temperatures in
the 40s and winds beginning to increase across the Devils Lake
Basin. Look for a continuation of northwest winds through the
day, with gusts expected to reach as high as 35 mph in northeast
North Dakota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...Synopsis...

Westerly flow becomes more northwesterly today across the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest as low pressure continues to depart the
region. Winds are expected to increase by late this morning,
with gusts up to 35 mph across portions of northeastern North
Dakota, mainly west of the Red River Valley. Shortwave ridging
then fills into eastern North Dakota heading into Sunday,
followed by the approach of a relatively strong H5 low. This
will bring rain chances back into the area starting Sunday
evening, then persisting through Tuesday morning. Precipitation
values are expected to be generally light, with a 40 percent
chance to see 0.25 inch of rain through Tuesday morning. Amounts
will be highest in northwest Minnesota and the northern Red
River Valley, with an upper bound on precip values of just under
1 inch. There is a low chance for a rain/snow mix as the system
departs late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Ridging
fills into the area once more heading into the middle of next
week, which is likely to persist through at least Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

VFR throughout the TAF period. This afternoon, winds will become
gusty out of the west at all terminals, strongest at KGFK, KDVL
and KFAR. Thinking that daytime heating may drive some cloud
cover from early afternoon through the early evening, so I added
in FEW050 at all terminals to account for their development.
There is a low probability this deck forms a ceiling, but if it
does ceilings would remain VFR. Skies clear overnight, leaving
SKC for Sunday. Winds will also be lighter on Sunday then today.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch/Rafferty
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Rafferty