343
FXUS63 KFGF 251938
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
238 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of rain are expected to overspread the region late
  Monday afternoon through Tuesday.

- Seasonable high temperatures in the 40s and 50s will be common
  through early next week, with slightly above average highs by
  late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

...Synopsis...

A deep trough is in place across the Great Basin, with southeast
flow building across the central High Plains. Our CWA is still
under the influence of westerly flow aloft, with an embedded
shortwave in SW flow to the south of the region. Surface ridging
is in place and drier north and eventually northeast BL flow is
undercutting the northern edge of this initial precipitation
and while a few sprinkles may sneak into the south tonight, most
locations are expected to remain dry through midday Monday.
After the more organized system moves through the region Monday
afternoon through Tuesday, southwest flow develops and persists
at least through the end of the week and potentially beyond the
weekend (some variance in clusters between ridging and SW by
this weekend). The general trend should be for seasonal
temperatures to warm slightly from seasonal highs in the
40s/lower 50s to slightly above average highs in the mid
50s/near 60. SW flow aloft inherently brings the potential for
additional chances for precipitation, however due to the weak
nature of the upper flow in the Plains and variance in guidance
resolving any embedded waves confidence in measurable
precipitation/impacts is low beyond Tuesday.


...Rain Monday into Tuesday...

A stronger mid level wave organizes into a hybrid type system
Monday  with large scale ascent increasing across our CWA south
to north late Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Initially drier
air in northeast BL flow may delay measurable rainfall, however
the surge of deeper moisture with WAA and at least some 700MB
deformation banding will help saturate the low levels and
periods of moderate (locally heavy) rainfall would be expected.
As is usually the case with dominant WAA patterns, stronger
areas of frontogenesis will tend to be more transient making
coverage of higher totals 1"+ harder to anticipate. Better
coverage of rain will tend to initially be along and south of US
Highway 2, though the track of the mid/upper low will
eventually allow rain to overspread northwest/north central MN.
High 24hr probabilities (60-80%) for 0.25" or more rainfall are
shown by NBM across southeast ND and west central MN, with a
30-50% chance in similar areas for greater than 1" of rainfall.

Regarding snowfall: As with previous rounds of guidance the
temperature profiles may at times be cold enough to support a
mix or change over to snow, particularly in higher terrain
areas west of the Red River Valley late Monday night/early
Tuesday morning. However, as HREF/REFS/NBM all show a very weak
signal, with lighter rates the chance for any snow to accumulate
will be diminished due to warmer ground temperatures. Still, a
few novelty snowflakes or a light dusting on grassy/elevated
surfaces may occur (best chance west of the Red River Valley
(no impacts).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period across
eastern ND and northwest MN, with very dry low levels in place.
Rain chances in southeast ND/west central MN associated with the
approaching system should hold off until late Monday afternoon
(after the current TAF period). Northwest winds eventually shift
to the northeast this evening through Monday morning as low
pressure approaches from the south, with most locations
remaining 10kt or less during this TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR