054
FXUS63 KFGF 302335
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
635 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms this
  afternoon, with the main hazard wind gusts to 60 mph and hail
  up to 1 inch. Locally heavy rainfall may also lead to minor
  flooding.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Adjusted POPs for current radar trends, with additional
convection developing near the frontal boundary currently
stretching from northwestern MN down into the Valley City area.
While still plenty of instability to work with, shear remains
pretty weak, and most of our reports so far have been flooding
from heavy rain rather than hail or damaging winds. Will
continue to keep an eye on flooding threat as additional showers
and storms move through this evening, but should be settling
down around midnight.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...Synopsis...

Large scale ridging continues to dominate the upper air pattern
over the CONUS. The greatest chances for precipitation through
this weekend will be today where a moist airmass intersects
weak synoptic forcing. Severe storms and flash flooding are
possible with these storms through this afternoon and evening.

As we progress into the weekend, 500mb flow increases in the
Pacific Northwest, which will allow for the ridge axis to become
much more angled and shift the axis eastward. Height rises and
thermal ridging will allow temperatures to rise back into the
90s by Sunday, continuing into Monday. More southwesterly flow
leads to higher shear potential on Monday and Tuesday, however
moisture flux is very limited in the lowest levels. As a result,
instability is fairly weak and the signal for organized severe
convection is limited. As a front comes through the area
Tuesday, cooler temperatures prevail through the end of the week
with highs in the 80s.

...SEVERE STORMS TODAY...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
afternoon and evening hours, with likely expansion in some
areas. Precipitable water is fairly high, between 1.5-1.9", and
flow is extremely weak aloft. Shear within the lowest 6km is at
best 5-15 knots and the bulk of shear is above 300mb. DCAPE is
fairly high and above 1000 J/kg, especially the further south
and east you go. As a result, downburst winds are likely at
times this afternoon, but should be a fairly sporadic nature and
unlikely to be widespread. With the very slow forward
propagation of convection however, flash flooding may develop
this afternoon/evening if storms stay over one area long enough.
With the antecedent dry conditions though, it will likely be
difficult to get much more than urban flooding. While not
impossible to see rural flash flooding, the ongoing drought
makes the probability low. Storms will continue through the
evening, but with near surface stabilization as time goes on,
downburst winds will likely become less widespread (or as
widespread as now).

Finally, the sad truth with this is the scattered convection
will make some get decent rain amounts, but not everyone. Don`t
expect a widespread heavy rainfall event. Some will get quite a
bit but others may not see much.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Some lingering thunderstorms at our more northern TAF sites,
with mostly VFR conditions other than when a convective cell
moves right over the airport. The front that is generating the
storms will sag south into the KBJI and KFAR areas later this
evening, so have VCSH or prob30 mentions for a few hours. Most
of the showers and storms should push south and east of the TAF
sites before 06Z. VFR conditions after that, with light and
variable winds winds picking up out of the north and gusting to
around 20 kts Friday afternoon at the Red River airports.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...JR