491
FXUS63 KFGF 171205
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
605 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for hazardous weather is low through next
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 602 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Much of the cloud cover in the north valley and far NW MN has
dissipated. Few bands of mid clouds remain though, with thicker
band southern MN into SE ND. Suspect this will be the theme
today with areas of mid clouds, clear sky....with the clearer
sky more in NW MN and cloudier sky in SE ND. No changes to pops
or temps needed.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...Synopsis...

500 mb split flow over the area from this past weekend into
early this week. Upper level ridging over Saskatchewan into
North Dakota with an eastward moving 500 mb low moving from
Utah/Colorado into Nebraska tonight and into Iowa Tuesday. Sharp
cutoff to the main moisture to the north, with main rain chances
well south of the fcst area across southern/central SD into
southern MN. Overall trend continues to be taking the higher
rain chances south. However, NAM 12k and a couple of the NSSL
cams indicate a small zone of potential light rain/sprinkles
developing this aftn from southeast ND into central ND. This
seems to be tied to an area of 700 mb convergence noted in the
wind field from Jamestown to Garrison ND. Pops not showing up in
the NBM, WFO BIS added some low pops for this scenario this
aftn/eve and did blend with them for the most part indicating a
low chance for -ra far SE ND to Valley City area then west.
Overnight tonight it appears chance of any precip does drift
into north central ND west of DVL. Sharp cutoff in mid level
moisture tdoay and tonight with a sunnier day today in northwest
MN with clouds increasing elsewhere.  East wind 10 kts today.
Surface temps shows highs today upper 30s to mid 40s and evening
temps in the 30s so if any precip occurs it would be light rain.

Split flow becomes more zonal flow after this wave for mid to
late week with main jet in Canada. 500 mb low drops well south
into southwest Arizona and northwest Mexico mid week. With the
main jet north of the border there will be a stronger short
wave Wednesday thru central Saskatchewan into central Manitoba
with a weak surface trough moving thru the forecast area Wed
evening. Chance of light rain is forecast with this, very light
amounts if any. Again temperatures warm enough for liquid rain.

500 mb zonal flow sags a bit south to along the International
border Friday into the weekend. At this time other than periodic
high and mid clouds, a dry period is expected with contdinued
above normal temps.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 602 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

East wind today into tonight 5 to 13 kts across the area. Areas
of cloud cover, more broken in SE ND vs more scattered in NW MN.
Should be mid clouds mostly in the 5000 to 12k ft agl range.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle