499
FXUS63 KFGF 280410
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1110 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected mainly
  across northwest Minnesota through this evening. Near
  critical fire weather conditions may occur Friday into this
  weekend.

- Well above normal temperatures are expected through early next
  week, with near record highs into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

...Synopsis...

Large scale omega block remains in place into the weekend, with the
amplified ridge axis centered across our region. This continues to
amplifying through Saturday and ensemble mean heights impressively
show 582DM heights extending to the arctic circle in Canada. This
pattern keeps well above average temperatures and near record highs
daily through Saturday. By Sunday the ridge axis begins to weaken
and there is a transition to more of a progressive zonal flow
by early next week. Due to high variation in the evolution of
that pattern actual precipitation chances are generally low,
however this time of year that pattern shift would support
progressive waves and rain/thunderstorm chances. Machine
learning systems do not highlight any one period for severe
potential, however just with the patter shift and ensembles
showing the potential for modest instability pooling into our
region there is at least a low risk for severe weather somewhere
in the region during that pattern.

There is a surface feature/frontal zone that could provide just
enough weak forcing from low level convergence and instability
before sunset to support a few thunderstorms in far southeast
ND and west central MN. Significant amounts of dry air aloft and
weak shear (under 20kt) would likely lead to a lot of
skinny/pulse type updrafts due to dry air entrainment if storms
were to develop. I won`t rule out a strong storm or two, but the
threat is minimal and the vast majority of CAMs keeps
conditions dry through this evening and with high based and
DCAPE over 1000 J/KG gusty winds would be a threat.

...Fire weather concerns into the weekend...

RH is highly variable across the region due to low level moist flow
from the southeast along the frontal zone in our south and to the
west and drier air aloft in the north and east. Winds are
periodically gusting around 20 mph along/north of Highway 2,
otherwise they are generally around or less than 10 mph. Near
critical fire weather conditions are ongoing at locations that have
had more widespread 25% or lower RH values this afternoon (mainly in
the northern Red River Valley). The orientation of the surface
gradient aligns that low level southeast flow across the entire
region Thursday, so while winds would be a bit higher mixed layer
Tds would also be higher limiting the coverage of potential 25% or
lower RH values.

Friday and Saturday there is a much drier air mass expected to be in
place off the surface with a strong signal for sub 25% RH region-
wide. The question will come down to winds and increasing surface
gradient over the central and western Dakotas does supporting at
least breezy conditions (strongest west lightest east), and there is
a chance (30%) for RFW conditions to develop over parts of our CWA
during those periods. At very least we are looking at near critical
fire weather conditions where fuels are supportive of rapid
spread.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Steady state conditions are expected for the TAF period with
very high ceilings exceeding 5000 feet should any cloud cover
arise. Other than that, expect winds to become more southerly
through the day, with the greatest winds expected along the
North Dakota/Minnesota State line and points west. No other
aviation impacts are expected to develop.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...Perroux