489
FXUS63 KFGF 051946
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
246 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered showers and storms are forecast across
  eastern North Dakota, Red River Valley, into west-central
  Minnesota. Northern storms are expected to not be severe, but
  there is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms south of
  the I-94/Highway 10 corridor.

- More chances for showers and storms Sunday night, as well as
  mid to late next week. Some storms could be severe.

- Potential for heat-related impacts Sunday, and mid to late
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...Synopsis...

The main upper trough continues to swing through Ontario, but
several weak vort maxes/shortwaves are still coming down the
backside of it. One main vort is moving through the southern Red
River Valley and another is headed towards the Devils Lake
Basin. Discussion of thunderstorm risk this afternoon and
evening continued in the next section below. Upper ridging moves
quickly into the Plains and Upper Midwest tomorrow, then pushes
towards the Great Lake by Sunday. Pretty amplified southwesterly
flow aloft sets up Sunday and continues into the upcoming week.
One lead shortwave starts to move through late Sunday into
Monday. Timing of such minor shortwaves always uncertain, but
ensemble members in pretty decent agreement on bringing another
shortwave out sometime mid-week. Upper troughing moves out into
the Northern Plains by the end of the week either phased or as a
weak cut off low, keeping active pattern going with perhaps some
slightly cooler temperatures.

...Marginal severe risk this afternoon and evening...

Vort max over the southern Red River Valley will be the one to
watch this afternoon, with ML CAPE up around 1000-1500 J/kg
while the more northern weak shortwave just has around 500 J/kg
to work with. Effective shear is also higher in west central MN,
with around 30 kts vs 20 kts. Storms that have been going up in
Wilkin/western Otter Tail counties have been pretty disorganized
so far, but can`t completely rule out a few cells getting high
enough to produce some 1 inch hail or gusts up to 60 mph. WoFS
run has the best chances for strong updraft helicities just to
the southeast of our CWA during the next few hours, but with
continued weak upper forcing and some instability to work with
don`t want to rule out development further northwest.

...Severe threat late Sunday into next week...

With an extended period of southwesterly flow aloft, there
should be plenty of time for moist, unstable air to build over
the Northern Plains. A lot of variation in the ensemble members
in exactly how much instability, but even the lower percentiles
for CAPE at KDVL have over 1500 J/kg with the higher end of the
ensemble approaching 4000 J/kg. With the pretty amplified flow
on Sunday, best chances for severe will be for our northwestern
counties before storms move off into Canada. After that system
pulls off to the east, surface winds quickly return to the south
ahead of the next system. By Wednesday, spread for the CAPE
values narrows a bit, with most of the ensemble members showing
over 1700 J/kg and many between 2000-3000 J/kg. for several days
next week, severe chances will be above 15 percent, so will have
to keep a close eye on the more active pattern.

...Heat Sunday and again later in the week...

ECMWF EFI shows a strong signal for warmer than average
temperatures for the entire seven day period, with particularly
high values on Sunday and Wednesday. With southeasterly winds
the dew points will be on the rise. Probabilistic heat risk is
around 20 to 30 percent chance for major impacts (excessive heat
warning criteria) Sunday in the Red River Valley, and even
higher values in west central MN for Wednesday. Will have to
keep a close eye on heat impacts as we head into the day 3-7
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR conditions with mainly some scattered to broken mid and high
clouds at all sites. Biggest question will be scattered showers
and thunderstorms moving through. Some showers will impact the
KFAR area in the next couple of hours, so have some VCSH and
prevailing rain for a short period. Less certainty with showers
and thunderstorms just starting to develop. Have prob30s during
the afternoon and early evening indicating convection for all
but KDVL as cells are mostly firing to the south of that
airport. Most activity will be to the south and west of our TAF
sites by 00Z. Winds that are light and variable should steady
out of the southeast by tomorrow morning, staying mostly below
12 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR