480
FXUS63 KFGF 122331
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
631 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Rain continues today, along with a few thunderstorms.

-Dry and windy conditions prevail later this week, which could
 lead to enhanced fire weather.

-Scattered frost and freeze conditions are likely late this
 week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

...Synopsis...

Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving across the
area this afternoon. Generally light rain is expected to continue
through this evening before tapering off from west to east. H5
troughing will gradually fill in today through Wednesday across the
western CONUS; however, cloud cover looks to remain quite persistent
as mid level moisture remains in place today into Tuesday. Look for
slow clearing on Wednesday, with cloud cover on the increase once
more Thursday. A weak system brings rain chances and breezy
northwest winds to much of the area late Thursday into early Friday
morning. Later on friday, cooler and drier air move into the area
along northwest flow, bringing low relative humidity and breezy
northwest winds.

...Enhanced Fire Weather Possible Friday...

Relative humidity on Friday is expected to fall into the 25-35
percent range, along with breezy northwest winds at 20-40 mph. Some
uncertainty still exists regarding the condition of fuels; however,
ensemble support is relatively strong regarding winds and low dew
points.

...Temperatures Near Freezing Friday and Saturday Night...

Overnight low temperatures are expected to fall into the lower 30s
Friday night across much of the area, with colder temps in the upper
20s to low 30s Saturday night. Widespread frost conditions are
likely, with conditional freeze conditions depending on wind
speeds.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Rain continue to move across parts of eastern ND and much of
northwest MN, with a few embedded thunderstorms over north
central MN (VCTS carried at KBJI). THe trend should be for rain
to end this evening southwest to northeast, though widespread
stratus (IFR and some areas of LIFR) is likely to prevail into
the morning hours Tuesday. Lighter fog may also persist (3-6sm
vis) at some locations, however due to the lack of radiational
conditions dense fog impacts are unlikely tonight/Tuesday
morning. VFR ceilings are unlikely to arrive during this TAF
period due to the lingering moist layer in northwest flow,
though improvement from IFR to MVFR is expected by the
afternoon Tuesday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR