276
FXUS63 KFGF 290848
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
348 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms across mainly west central
  Minnesota could bring lightning and brief downpours this
  afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...Synopsis...

Water vapor loop shows fairly weak upper flow across most of the
Plains and Rockies with several weak embedded shortwaves under
upper ridging. The most prominent of these is near the WY/SD
border but another weak ripple near the ND/SD border is
producing some cells just west of our CWA. Surface front stalled
near the Red River will also cause some showers and
thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon. The stronger
upper vort to our west looks at this point like it will wobble
down into SD and then Neb, but will keep an eye on it in case
some shift happens in our direction. Better chances for one of
the weak embedded shortwaves to come over our CWA will be on
Monday as ensembles are in decent agreement bringing one down
from Canada. Upper flow becomes stronger Tuesday and into mid-
week as a more robust trough digs down through southern Canada
and into the north central CONUS. Can`t completely rule out some
strong to severe storms developing as deep layer shear improves,
but instability will be in question depending on timing of the
cold front. ECMWF EFI doesn`t show any strong signals for CAPE,
and CIPS analogs are not really favorable, but some of the GEFS
machine learning has a 0.5 to 5 percent probability for severe in
our south for Tuesday. Not really enough to start messaging but
will keep an eye on how things develop. Northwesterly flow on
the backside of the upper low setting up over the Great Lakes
should bring fairly quiet and cooler weather for the end of next
work week.

...Thunderstorm chances today...

With weak upper flow the 0-6km bulk shear will remain around 20
to 25 kts this afternoon, even as there is a 70 percent
probability of 1000 J/kg of CAPE by this afternoon south of the
I-94 corridor. Joint probability of at least 500 J/kg of CAPE
and shear getting up to 30 kts is around 10 to 20 percent in
portions of west central MN this afternoon. Not enough for
organized severe, but think some stronger storms could pulse up
at times this afternoon and evening. A few blotches of decent
updraft helicity pop up in the HREF and some of the CAMs are
showing some decent cells. Chances for severe are low but will
have to watch for lightning at outdoor events to start the Labor
Day weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

VFR conditions prevail tonight with a chance for patchy fog,
mainly at KGFK. Light and variable winds persist through much of
the overnight period and into Friday. Cloud cover will increase
as sunrise approaches, possibly bringing ceilings down into MVFR
territory through around mid morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Lynch