155
FXUS63 KFGF 172320
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
620 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop over parts of
  southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota this
  afternoon and early evening. Hail to 1 inch and wind gusts to
  70 mph would be the main threats.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Thunderstorms continue to move to the east and southeast this
afternoon in west central Minnesota. These storms could become
strong to severe at times over the next several hours. Hazards
could include large hail and gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...Synopsis...

Typical late summer pattern with western ridging and great lakes
troughing bringing WNW upper level flow across the northern
plains. Strongest instability remains south of the area but will
still see enough for thunder chance with the wave Wednesday
night late or Thursday. Then again with a wave at the end of the
weekend. Will see seasonal temps with highs in the 70s and lows
in the 50s for most of the period a couple warmer days Thursday
and next Monday where temps will climb solidly into the 80s but
again minimal impacts wrt to hazardous weather.

...Severe Thunderstorm Risk this afternoon and evening...

There continues to be a signal within the CAM guidance and some
cumulus development ahead of fropa in the central and some accas
southern valley suggesting convection develops in lakes region
this afternoon and early evening. Timing of this front seems on
track from previous forecasts and when this lift or forcing is
combined with peak heating and advection of better instability
storms are expected to develop in that 5 to 7pm time frame. The
strongest of these storms will be marginally severe capable of
hail to an inch and winds at most to 70mph, given the dry
soundings. Coverage of the severe threat is expected to be
isolated at best and limited to just the lakes country and then
points to the south and east.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites.
Thunderstorm activity is expected to remain south and east of
the area this evening and overnight. Cloud cover is variable,
but VFR this evening, with more cloud cover to the southeast of
KFAR in association with thunderstorm activity. Winds will be
out of the north to northwest through the evening, then become
light and variable overnight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK/Lynch
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...Lynch