220
FXUS63 KFGF 121535
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
935 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No impactful weather is expected through the end of this week.
  Continued above average temperatures through Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Hardly a cloud in the sky as of mid morning. Very minor changes
made to the forecast at this time. We are still on track to
have high temperatures reach the mid 40s to low 50s across the
FA, warmest in southeastern ND into the Red River Valley.

UPDATE
Issued at 553 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

The band of high clouds that were from NW into south central ND
has dissipated. Skies are clear over the area to start the day
as we approach 12z. No forecast issues noted.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

...Synopsis...

Very quiet on the weather front early this morning and will
remain so today. High pressure ridge axis today moves slowly
east into western ND and will be over the forecast area this
evening. Look for a northwest wind today 15-20 kts gusts 25 kts,
so still a bit breezy as 850 mb winds remain 25-30 kts...but
overall not as strong as Tuesday. Some cirrus patches around
today mainly associated with upper level jet axis which
gradually move eastward. Temps on Tuesday outperformed the fcst
and did add 1-2 degrees to NBM temps for today. Light south to
southeast wind develops Thursday and some cirrus around as well
and highs similar to today.

Friday will see sfc gradient tighten up as low pressure moves
from northern Alberta into northern Saskatchewan and upper
trough moves east and with that a cold front that will be
located south of the surface low. Moisture is mostly all mid or
high level and fast moving front so limited moisture and precip
chances as it moves thru Friday night. Temps warm enough for
some brief light rain/sprinkles as likely mid clouds along the
front move through. Friday daytime will see south winds 15-25
kts. Will need to watch RH values in case NBM has poor handle on
dew pts (too moist) but winds from due south direction often
not a dry wind in terms of RH. Highs Friday mid 50s to low
60s....well above the normal highs which will be mid 30s.

Breezy northwest winds behind the cold front Saturday...and a
bit cooler but still above normal with 40 north to low 50s
south. High pressure at the sfc moves in over the area Sunday
night. 850 mb moisture increases thru southern Manitoba and into
NW MN Saturday afternoon and lingers into Sunday for Lake of the
Woods signaling some clouds may drop into those areas. Rest of
the forecast looks mostly sunny Saturday and Sunday.

The Mon-Wed period is showing differences from what it looked
like 24 hours ago. NBM, which may be picking up on more of the
ECMWF and its ensembles is considerably more north with 500 mb
low now as it moves out of the US southwest into the central and
even northern Plains. Thus it has increased chc of precipitation
Monday-Wed period with much farther north broad upper low. GFS
and GEFS and Canadian global maintain a much more southern 500
mb moving out into Kansas and a drier but colder pattern into
our area with sfc high in Manitoba. No confidence at this stage
which solution will win out. The ECMWF is a departure from 24
hours ago. The German ICON model does have a weaker version of
ECMWF with upper low and some light precip into the area Mon-
Tue. Temps from ECMWF/ICON suggest majority liquid rain if
precip occurs vs if blending in some colder GFS/GEM data it
favors a mix or light snow. Interesting though NBM and WPC QPF
mainly dry over the area Mon-Tue period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 553 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR thru the pd. Gusty WNW winds today 12-25 kts, a bit lower in
the trees in MN. Winds diminishing mid to late afternoon and
becoming 5 kts or so this evening and gradually turning west or
southwest late tonight. Skies clear to start today, then some
cirrus increase later today and tonight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle