277
FXUS63 KFGF 181111
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
611 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of
  southeast North Dakota Wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Remaining few showers are exiting Grant county MN into Douglas
county. A few mid level showers in northwest ND near Watford
City moving east-southeast. Otherwise skies generally clear
north to mostly cloudy south due to high and mid clouds. No
weather impacts today. Did update key messaging to include SPC
day 2 marginal risk for parts of southeast ND Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Confidence on enough instability
returning northward is quite low at this time.


UPDATE
Issued at 953 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Thunderstorm risk has ended across most of the area this
evening, with only scattered activity along the I-94 and Hwy 10
corridors in west central Minnesota. Temperatures are in the
lower 60s along the International Border with low 70s in the
southern Red River Valley.

UPDATE
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Thunderstorms continue to move to the east and southeast this
afternoon in west central Minnesota. These storms could become
strong to severe at times over the next several hours. Hazards
could include large hail and gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...Synopsis...

Typical late summer pattern with western ridging and great lakes
troughing bringing WNW upper level flow across the northern
plains. Strongest instability remains south of the area but will
still see enough for thunder chance with the wave Wednesday
night late or Thursday. Then again with a wave at the end of the
weekend. Will see seasonal temps with highs in the 70s and lows
in the 50s for most of the period a couple warmer days Thursday
and next Monday where temps will climb solidly into the 80s but
again minimal impacts wrt to hazardous weather.

...Severe Thunderstorm Risk this afternoon and evening...

There continues to be a signal within the CAM guidance and some
cumulus development ahead of fropa in the central and some accas
southern valley suggesting convection develops in lakes region
this afternoon and early evening. Timing of this front seems on
track from previous forecasts and when this lift or forcing is
combined with peak heating and advection of better instability
storms are expected to develop in that 5 to 7pm time frame. The
strongest of these storms will be marginally severe capable of
hail to an inch and winds at most to 70mph, given the dry
soundings. Coverage of the severe threat is expected to be
isolated at best and limited to just the lakes country and then
points to the south and east.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Relatively good flying conditions today. Some CU or stratocu
around NW MN in the 5000 ft agl range near GFK east to BJI.
Otherwise some cirrus in the far south today and scattered
cirrus or mid clouds north. Winds today after a light and
variable start will be northwest around 10 kts then calm this
evening and tonight.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch/Riddle
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...Riddle