Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
367 FXUS63 KFGF 111136 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 636 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for strong to severe storms tonight in southeast North Dakota. - Seasonable weather with daily highs in the 70s and low 80s this week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 The severe storm complex never did form in South Dakota. Starting off with patches of mid clouds or stratocu around the area with light northeast winds. For today not looking at much and will need to see what happens to southwest or south central ND late this afternoon and evening. If storms do fire in those areas there is a chance that a few of these strong or severe storms may clip far southeast ND overnight. But instability wise will still favor that zone from SW ND thru SD into Iowa tonight. So the threat for any strong or severe storms in SE ND overnight is conditional and they wouldnt just form over the area but need to move in from the west. UPDATE Issued at 926 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 There is still a low to medium chance for scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms overnight tonight south of US Hwy 2. Rain under current lighter radar returns are struggling to reach the ground due to lingering relatively dry air in the lower levels. While not likely, should a thunderstorm become robust, it would be capable of producing hail up to size of golf balls. Otherwise, expecting partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight and light winds. Cloud cover and just enough wind should limit the chance for fog tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 ...Synopsis... Currently a very elongated ridge exists across the southern CONUS with zonal to WNW mid level flow in the northern CONUS. As we progress through the week ridging over the four corners into Texas panhandle will amplify at the same time PNW troughing begins to turn flow more zonal over us as the ridge gets pushed east. By Thursday SW flow looks to dominate the western CONUS bringing pacific moisture over the Rockies with embedded shortwaves. Certainly still differences remaining across clusters but the potential for a wet late week/weekend looks to be increasing. The current placement of synoptic features would more heavily favor southern areas for a soaking rain but even then it looks to only be a quarter to half inch (locally 1" perhaps) from Friday through Saturday. - Severe threat today While parts of southeast North Dakota are outlooked for this evening the main risk looks to stay well south of the area into South Dakota as a potential MCS develops amid a seasonably moist and unstable airmass with dewpoints in the low 70s across much of the Missouri river corridor in South Dakota. Further north towards Bismarck dewpoints should still manage to climb into the mid to upper 60s though this will only allow for 2000-2500 MUCAPE compared to the 3000-3500 further south with shear relatively equal across the warm sector. Given cloud layer shear approaching or even exceeding 70kts and DCAPE in excess of 1300 j/kg upscale growth seems to be the likely storm mode with an initial window for large hail and a few tornadoes possible in South Dakota. Should storms clip our area the thought is upscale growth would already be underway and winds up to 60mph would be the primary threat. - Severe threat Tuesday On Tuesday parts of southeast North Dakota are once again outlooked in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The primary initiating boundary looks to be more so in South Dakota as a cold front moves southeast with no defined waves aloft for large scale forcing. This will increase the uncertainty in location of storms due to the subtle nature of the forcing but with around 2000 MLCAPE along and south of I-94 and eff shear of 40- 50kts, rotating storms are certainly possible. Perhaps we simply reach convective Ts in the mid 80s for some places in southeast North Dakota but lingering smoke aloft could chop a few degrees off our heating potential preventing that as well. Overall marginal seems to be the right call here with an equal risk for hail to the size of ping pongs (1.5") and wind gusts to 60 mph with any storms that do form. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Will scattered to broken sky coverage today with mid and high level clouds. Though to start today some cloud bases are running near 4000 to 5000 ft agl. Light winds again all day mainly northeast 4-8 kts. Similar conditions into tonight. Chance for a shower or t-storm is there after dark, but too far away to have any confidence to put in any mention in TAFs. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJ/Riddle DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...Riddle