938
FXUS63 KFGF 262335
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
635 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain moves out of the region by this evening.

- A stronger weather system moves in for Monday/Tuesday. A
  widespread soaking rain is expected with most locations having
  a 50-80% chance for greater than 1 inch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Rain showers move into Northeastern Minnesota by this evening
bringing dry conditions back to the region. A weak cold front
tonight will bring some clearing to areas west of the Red River
Valley allowing temperatures to cool into the 40s F with low to
mid 50s F everywhere else Sunday morning. Surface high pressure
moves in Sunday pushing out the clouds and bringing
high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s F. High pressure
(1020 mb) Sunday night will bring cooler temperatures in the 40s
F across the region Monday morning.

Monday, a 500 mb wave begins to track across the Northern
Plains bringing our next chance for precipitation. Southerly
winds will advect in anomalously high moisture with PWAT values
being >200% of normal. Southerly winds advecting in warmer air,
high pressure to the north setting up a baroclinic zone, and
potentially a deformation zone will provide the forcing for this
precipitation. The weak low pressure system is expected to
track generally along a line from Jamestown to Roseau, aligning
well with the areas that can expect the heaviest rainfall.
Eastern North Dakota and Northwest Minnesota currently have a
50-80% chance for getting greater than 1 inch of rain.
Probabilities fall into the 10-30% range for 2 inches of rain,
with those values being closer to the heaviest axis.
Precipitation chances are expected to gradually decrease
throughout the day Tuesday.

This rain is expected to bring drought relief but could cause
issues as well. Slow moving showers with embedded thunderstorms
in such a moist environment have the potential to cause
isolated flooding. Due to this, the Weather Prediction Center
has issued a level 1 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall. Severe
storms are not expected. Heavy rain during harvest time will
also impact agricultural activities.

The weather pattern for the middle to late week period is less
certain but looks to be more benign with seasonable temperatures
and limited precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

The main area of rain is transitioning east over north central
MN early in the TAF period, however light scattered
showers/drizzle may linger into the evening hours across eastern
ND and northwest MN. Widespread IFR stratus remains in place
with some improvement in central ND as a cold front slowly moves
east and much drier westerly BL flow arrives behind this front.
The front will tend to move slower or event stall for part of
the night as it moves east which may keep lower ceilings and the
potential for fog development at KGFK and KFAR with the best
chance for IFR (or lower) vis in northwest MN during the 09-13Z
period. The front is expected to finally push east across the
entire region through the morning hours and prevailing VFR
conditions are expected across the region (finally) by midday
Sunday continuing into Sunday night (much drier west-northwest
flow).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LT
AVIATION...DJR