078
FXUS63 KFGF 180039
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
639 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread weather impacts are not expected through this
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Tweaked POPs a bit for current radar trends. Main activity
continues to be well to our south with the upper low, although
there has been some light returns developing in central ND with
a weak northern branch vort. HREF still shows some low
probabilities for mixed precip mainly in our southwest tonight.
Not thinking much will reach the ground or bring impacts, but
will continue to monitor.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...Synopsis...

Split flow continues across the Central and Northern Plains today,
with an upper low traversing northern Nebraska and southern South
Dakota. The northern portions of this low will bring a slight chance
for light rain into southeast North Dakota tonight; however, with
dry air in place, much of this precipitation will struggle to reach
the surface. The remainder of Tuesday looks quiet, with minimal
chances for precip and highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. The next
chance for precipitation will be late Wednesday afternoon through
early Thursday morning. This will precede another H5 trough and cold
front, with the upper low moving across northern Manitoba and into
the Hudson Bay Region. Northwest flow follows the frontal passage,
then prevails into the weekend, with ridging filling in slowly by
early next week. There remains a bit of uncertainty regarding a
larger scale pattern shift as we approach the weekend; however,
confidence is quite low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions at all TAF sites as high and mid clouds increase
from south to north. Winds from the east at 5 to 10 kts will
slowly become more southeasterly later tonight and remain so
through most of the day tomorrow.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...JR