187
FXUS63 KFGF 111209
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
609 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No impactful weather is expected through the end of this
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 601 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Sfc trough with a wind shift to the west-northwest was located
from about Roseau to near Crookston to just west of Fargo at
12z moving steadilyl east. Temps rise a bit behind the front.
Area of stratocu moving quickly southeast associated with 500 mb
wave in NW Ontario and affecting far northern MN. Then clearing
then there is another batch of stratocu upstream in the Manitoba
Interlake region that should affect parts of NW MN this
afternoon. Otherwise clearing will work east into E ND and west
central MN today as high clouds move out.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...Synopsis...

With the low clouds cleared out....starting off the early
morning with scattered cirrus over the area. There is a short
wave moving quickly southeast and just moving into northwest
Ontario north of the town of Red Lake. This upper level short
wave is quite far north and will move southeast. Precipitation
with this (light snow) will remain well to our northeast, though
as stratocu moves southeast into parts of NW MN today some very
light sprinkles or fluries possible around Lake of the Woods.
But model blends look to keep any measurable precip out of our
area. With the short wave moving southeast and accompanied
surface low in far NW Ontario moving southeast, winds will
switch to the west-northwest early today behind a surface
trough that is moving thru currently. Soundings show no cold
advection behind this trough today and thus low level lapse
rates are pretty weak btwn sfc and 850 mb of 4C/km via BUFKIT
soundings from NAM for GFK from sfc to 900 mb. So would not
anticipate winds to gust higher than winds at 900 mb which run
25-33 kts over the area, strongest DVL region. After some
morning clouds, increasing sun is likely E ND and west central
MN while clouds more prevelent HCO-FSE-PKD and east/north.

Partly cloudy sky tonight into Wednesday with patches of cirrus.

Warmer today than on Monday despite a WNW wind as temps in the
sfc-900 mb warm over Monday. Similar temps on Wednesday as for
today with a diminishing west-northwest wind.

High pressure at the sfc moves overherad Wed night-Thu AM then
turn southerly and increase Friday ahead of 500 mb trough to our
west. Best warm advection Friday as well and should see highs
well into the 50s in nearly all areas, some low 60s possible in
SE ND.

For Saturday rain chances...overall trends suggest a weaker 500
mb trough with main energy well north and a simple cold front
moving thru with a chance of showers along it. This is compared
to a more low pressure moving northeast system which was
prevelent a few days ago for this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 601 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Will need to watch stratocu coverage as MVFR cigs may affect
TVF/BJI at times today. Gusty WNW winds most areas, strongest in
E ND/RRV with gusts esp at DVL near 30 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle