530
FXUS63 KFGF 072028
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
328 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms today. The
  main impacts for any storms that become severe will be golf
  ball sized hail and winds to 60 mph, with a lower risk for a
  tornado in the Devils Lake Basin.

- Heavy rainfall with any slower moving thunderstorms may lead
  to localized flooding in poor drainage areas this afternoon
  into the overnight.

- Windy conditions develop Tuesday with wind gusts to 50 mph
  across parts of northeast North Dakota and the northern Red
  River Valley in Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...Synopsis...

SW Flow is in place across the Northern Plains head of a
stronger mid/upper trough/upper level low located over the
Northern Rockies. This upper low tracks east and deepens over
the Canadian Prairies and passes north of our region through
Tuesday. There is more variation in details beyond Tuesday
regarding any shortwave trough passages and rain
coverage/chances, though we still remain on the warmer side of
temperatures despite a shift towards west-northwest flow on the
back side of this trough. The general trend is for a much more
substantial shift in flow aloft favoring decreasing heights and
temperatures by the end of next week and next weekend (highs in
the 60s). The most likely periods of impactful weather will be
associated with the trough passage tonight and Tuesday
(thunderstorms then wind).

...Severe Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain Risk...

Ongoing showers and embedded thunderstorms have remain weaker in
a much more elevated airmass featuring skinny CAPE profiles
but strong effective shear. Current activity developed with the
nose of a LLJ and elevated WAA in the 850-700 MB layer and
besides heavy rain/lighting it may only feature a marginal hail
threat. Expansive cloud cover is also lingering, which may lower
our window for surface based thunderstorms during the afternoon
and evening.

Surface pattern indicates surface troughing over western ND, with
several fronts intersecting near Dickinson. The deepening of this
surface low and position/timing of these fronts before sunset
will be critical for any potential supercell development to
our west that may track into the Devils Lake Basin/eastern ND
during the evening hours. Forcing is much more diffuse before
the main trough starts shifting east later this
evening/overnight, so coverage/initiation carries more
uncertain. Still, within the warm sector where clearing develops
decent instability profiles may coincide with strongly veered
hodographs/strong shear favorable of supercells and a
conditional risk for hail around the size of golf balls and a
conditions risk for tornado development. Some CAMs (mainly runs
of the HRRR) have supported supercell developing to our west and
potentially tracking east into our west. The farther east and
the later activity lingers/tracks activity will tend to become
weaker with more of a marginal hail risk.

Higher PWATs in place raises potential for heavy rain rates with
thunderstorm activity once again as with previous days, and any
slower moving/training clusters could lead to localized
flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Highly variable flight conditions are expected through this
evening and overnight as lingering MVFR (pockets of IFR)
stratus slowly break up through the early afternoon becoming
VFR, while clusters of showers and thunderstorms track west to
east through the afternoon and evening. Coverage of
thunderstorms will also vary, with the potential for a lull
before redevelopment occurs. Brief MVFR or IFR may occur with
thunderstorm activity, with some potential for severe storms
mainly during the evening hours in ND. Tendency should be for
prevailing VFR after the thunderstorm activity ends in ND,
however parts of MN remain in the moist air mass ahead of a
frontal zone and MVFR or IFR stratus is more likely to redevelop
there Sunday morning before clearing with daytime mixing.

Southeast winds periodically gusting around 25kt are expected
into the early evening before decreasing and shifting as a front
moves through the region. Winds increase from the southwest
then west Sunday, and wind gusts 30kt or greater become likely
by the afternoon in ND and parts of northwest MN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.
MN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ001-004-
     007.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR