131
FXUS63 KFGF 122325
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
625 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms mainly in southern North Dakota into
  parts of west central Minnesota today into tonight. Isolated
  severe impacts with hail and wind hazards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...Synopsis...

West to northwest flow aloft continues over the Northern Plains,
with several weak shortwaves moving through our area on top of
the south central CONUS ridge. Model performance of the timing
of these small features has been poor, but one shortwave coming
up through the Rockies could bring some showers and
thunderstorms this evening. Upper heights build up a bit
tomorrow and most model solutions keep our CWA dry, but can`t
completely rule out another weak ridge rider. A bit better
signal for a shortwave coming through Friday night into
Saturday, and the NBM has the highest probabilities for
precipitation over 0.10" during this time period, mainly along
and north of I-94. After that shortwave moves by and high
pressure brings dry conditions for Sunday, the west to
northwesterly flow aloft continues. Minor shortwaves that could
bring some precipitation is not resolvable at this point, but
temps look fairly seasonable through the first part of next
week.

...Thunderstorm chances and severe potential tonight...

The upper forcing is still well off to our southwest, but with
ML CAPE around 2500 J/kg in south central ND some convective
towers have already started to develop. Many of the CAMs bring
most of the activity into southeastern ND later this evening
well after 00Z as thunderstorms come east off the High Plains.
But as stated above the CAMs have not been doing well lately.
Any showers and thunderstorms that do develop have severe
potential with deep layer shear around 50 kts, but there is
also some displacement from the main forcing. HREF has the best
probabilities of strong updraft helicity values mostly in SD
with just some 10 to 20 percent chances in our far southwestern
counties. Machine learning models also have severe chances
around 5 to 15 percent in portions of our southern counties.
Will continue to keep an eye on how storms develop, but for now
the marginal risk for hail up to quarters and 60 mph seems
reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR TAFs prevail through the period at all TAF sites. Maintained
the PROB30 group for KFAR through late evening, however,
thunderstorm chances remain quite uncertain in the current
weather pattern. Overall, impact potential is minimal, but worth
watching in the next several hours. Mid to high level smoke
continues across much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
this evening, with guidance slowly pushing the heavier smoke
further south late in the TAF period. Winds are expected to
remain light and variable tonight, with slightly higher values
Thursday morning, generally 5-10 knots.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Lynch