296
FXUS63 KFGF 142030
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
330 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms this  evening
into tonight. The main hazards will be damaging wind gusts, hail,
and flash flooding.

- There is a level 1 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms for
  portions of west central Minnesota Tuesday afternoon. Hazards
  could include damaging wind gusts and hail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...Synopsis...

Zonal H5 flow prevails through the next several days, with ridging
supported in the southeast CONUS and a deep H5 trough over the
Hudson Bay. Several shortwaves traverse the flow this week, with the
first bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area this afternoon
through around Wednesday morning. Very warm temperatures today fall
towards normal values heading into the middle part of this week. The
active shortwave pattern prevails into the end of the week and into
the weekend; however, the best chances for precipitation will be
this afternoon into Tuesday.

...Severe Thunderstorms Possible Today and Tuesday...

MUCAPE values this afternoon and evening continue to climb into the
1500 to 2000 J/Kg range. Cooler air at the surface and very warm
850mb temps are ensuring strong capping for most locations. A
frontal boundary continues to lift north, however, which will
provide an axis of development in the 850mb layer and up, with
favorable conditions for elevated clusters of storms. The primary
risk will be hail and flash flooding; however, damaging wind gusts
could be a risk as well, mainly during the mid to late afternoon.
With PW in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range, and a slow-moving boundary, we
need to consider the possibility of flash flooding.

The front moves slowly southward on Tuesday as the shortwave pushes
across the area. Similar expectations exist for the environment
Tuesday afternoon and evening, with the risk area shifting slightly
to the southeast. There remains about a 30 to 40 percent chance
of 1 inch or more precipitation this evening and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all sites this afternoon, with MVFR
and intermittent IFR conditions possible later this evening and
overnight. Showers and isolated thunderstorms early this
afternoon will diminish, with additional thunderstorms expected
later this afternoon, evening, and overnight. A few of these
storms could become severe. Winds remain out of the east to
northeast through the period, with an increase in gusts heading
into Tuesday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Lynch