168
FXUS63 KFGF 021733
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1133 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain is expected across the region through
  Wednesday AM. Best chances for 2+ inch of rain will be in
  southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota.

- Breezy north winds are likely late Monday night into Tuesday,
  with gusts upwards of 40 mph at times.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Light to moderate rain continues across a large portion of the
area heading into the midday and afternoon hours. The heaviest
rainfall rates are currently being observed in west central
Minnesota, with the lightest rain in the northern Red River
Valley. Temperatures are in the mid 50s, with the forecast
remaining on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 616 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Water vapor loop showing multiple 500 mb short waves embedded
within the larger upper trough over the Rockies. One lead wave
not into north central Colorado will move northeast with
associated sfc low progged to be near the ND/SD/MN border by 00z
Tues. Rain ahead of this will be over the entire forecast area
today so 100 pops. For Tuesday into Wed AM differences exist on
track of a second short wave and surface low with GFS/ECMWF 00
and 06z runs indicating a bit farther east with main rains east
of the Red River valley as the 500 mb low slows down over Iowa
into western Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota. Solid area of 1-2+
inch rain for most areas from the first system 12z Mon to 12z
Tues. Gusty north winds develop in eastern ND into the RRV late
today and tonight, with gusts 40 mph. Foresee winds remaining
below wind advisory range however.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...Synopsis...

Widespread cloud cover remains in place across much of the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest. Temperatures this afternoon are in the 60s
where broken cloud cover is observed, with temps otherwise in the
50s. Ridging continues to exit the area this evening with satellite
imagery showing the development of a deep H5 trough moving into the
southwestern CONUS. This trough will continue to the northeast,
eventually combining with an upper low moving southward out of
Canada. This will be the source of widespread rain Monday through
Wednesday across a large part of the area. Cooler temps and breezy
winds are expected Tuesday into Wednesday, with another surge of
cooler temps also late Wednesday into Thursday.

...Heavy Rain Monday through Wednesday...

Warm air and moisture advection ahead our next system support the
continued mention of rainfall totals exceeding 1 inch across a large
portion of the area. Best chances of seeing over 1 inch remain
consistently in southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota;
however, recent RRFS and ensemble analysis are hinting at a slight
shift to the north. In either case, rainfall totals of 2-3 inches
are possible where deformation bands form as the low inflects and
moves northeastward Monday through Wednesday.

...Breezy North Winds Tuesday...

Much cooler advects into eastern North Dakota and northwest
Minnesota late Monday into Tuesday as winds shift to the north on
the western side of the upper low. At this time, wind gusts look to
remain just on the lower end of advisory level, ranging from 35-40
mph on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

LIFR to IFR ceilings and visibility are expected to continue
through most of the afternoon and evening. Slow improvement will
occur overnight from west to east as rain transitions eastward
with the upper low. Winds will pick up out of the northeast,
then north, increasing to around 15-20 knots. Gusts up to 40
knots will be possible starting late Tuesday morning, especially
at KFAR, and KGFK. Ceilings should be approaching MVFR by mid
morning on Tuesday; however, trends have been a bit slower in
recent model runs. For this TAF issuance, will hold onto MVFR
ceilings in the Red River Valley locations.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch