327
FXUS63 KFGF 311201
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
701 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind advisory in effect for strong winds across northeast
 North Dakota Monday afternoon.

- Scattered but low confidence chances for strong to severe
  through Thursday into parts of the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 459 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Rain has moved out of the forecast area. Low clouds have filled
in over parts of NW/WC MN along with patchy fog. Did add patchy
fog to areas east of the Red River thru 13z. Skies are clearing
and drier air making its way slowly eastward though. Kept wind
advisory area as is as southern edge from near DVL to GFK is on
the advisory borderline it would appear based on soundings with
gusts 40-45 mph and sustatined around 30 mph. Bit higher wind
speeds along ND/MB border.


UPDATE
Issued at 157 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Area of showers and t-storms continue to progress northeast and
area will be rain free (or almost) by 11z.



UPDATE Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Several thunderstorms in east central ND have developed out
ahead of the main line, which is still near or even west of the
Missouri River. There have been a few breaks in the clouds
across the southern Red River Valley, and ML CAPE in that area
has jumped up to the 2500-3000 J/kg range. Should see a decrease
in instability as the line to the west approaches around the 9
pm to midnight time frame, but will continue to keep an eye on
the more southerly cells as they continue to track east.
Overall, most of the ensemble updraft helicity trends have a
decrease in severe potential as we head into the overnight, but
our Devils Lake Basin and possibly parts of the western Red
River Valley could see some 60 to 70 mph wind gusts if the line
of storms is stronger than CAM guidance suggests and maintains
itself into our area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

...Synopsis...

Troughing is now dominating the high plains with a well defined
upper low moving through MT/Alberta this afternoon. With this wave
will come severe weather this evening/overnight in eastern North
Dakota and strong winds along the south side of the low tomorrow
along the intl border. Beyond these threats the 0.25-0.5" rains
north of HWY 200 tonight will certainly be welcome and beneficial to
easing the worsening drought. It may even put a short stop to the
ongoing wheat/sugar beet harvest. More thunderstorm chances through
the later half of the week, some of which may be severe.

- Today

The strong forcing of the 500mb in MT is already proving to be
enough to initiate storms across eastern MT despite modest MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg out there. As storms continue to deepen and grow
upscale they will work into a more buoyant airmass west of the US-83
corridor with sig wind potential across the western/South central
portion of the state. Given decreasing MUCAPE and instability with
time and eastward extent the storms are expected to be on a
weakening trend by the time they arrive in our area around 8-10pm
and midnight in the RRV. This comes with a caveat however, many CAMS
are depicting a bubble of MUCAPE exceeding 3000 j/kg in the southern
RRV that should storms enter it with sufficient organization they
may intensify supporting 60-70mph gusts along and south of HWY 200
through the early morning hours and into west central Minnesota.
This scenario is low confidence but higher impact and worth
mentioning. Overall given weak low level lapse rates and minimal low
level cape (0-3km) QLCS tornados seem unlikely but cannot be ruled
out if storms remain more organized with a balanced UDCZ. Overall as
long as a linear mode prevails hail is a low threat.

- Monday Wind

As the upper low lifts northeast into Lake Manitoba and Lake
Winnipeg strong W/SW winds will wrap around the southern periphery
of the low. EFI does pick up on this nicely with some shading over
the 0.9 threshold for wind gusts which seems to correspond nicely
with high wind warning criteria for us historically, anecdotally
speaking. Given a modest BL depth to around 800mb and flow within
that layer of 30-40kts only moderate cold air advection at the
onset of peak diurnal mixing thinking that getting gusts from
higher aloft to the surface will be more difficult. The result is to
expect gusts of 30-40kts in the afternoon across northeast north
Dakota and especially the Langdon bowl but the peak potential with
gusts nearing 45-50kts seems unrealistic. A few scenarios do bring
bring much drier dewpoints that being shown by the NBM with
resulting MinRH in the 25-30% range overlapping with gusts of 20-
25kts (mainly in southeast North Dakota) with MinRH closer to 35%
overlapping with gusts of 30-35kts in the northern RRV. Overall the
state of the fuels seems unlikely support fast fire spread but near
critical fire weather seems on the table. True Red Flag conditions
seem unattainable at this time.

- Work Week

Near zonal to southwesterly flow aloft continues into next week.
Temps look to be above average with several chances for
precipitation as weak shortwaves come through. Machine learning does
indicate increased chances for severe weather but with a large
spatial spread day to day lowering the confidence at the this time
in impacts. Overall seasonal moisture and increased shear from the
passing shortwaves amid SW flow do conceptually support the risk for
strong to severe storms through the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 658 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

IFR ceilings ROX-TVF-DTL-FFM and east. They will clear out here
mid morning as the low levels mix out more. Quite dry airmass
moving in though so minimal CU anticipated with todays sunshine.
Main thing will be wind gusts esp in NE ND with DVL region
windiest spot seeing some gusts in the 40kt range, and likely a
period of wind gusts right around 30kts mid afternoon. Highest
anticipated is 30-35kt and for brief periods.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     NDZ006>008-014>016-026-027-054.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle/JR
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...Riddle