967
FXUS63 KFGF 151732
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1232 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected today, and a
  few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon.
  Hazards could include hail up to 1 inch in diameter and wind
  gusts to 60 mph, especially in southeast North Dakota,
  southern Red River Valley, and west central Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...Synopsis...

Northwest flow prevails through the upcoming week across the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Anomalously low H5 heights remain
in place from the Hudson Bay southward into the Great Lakes region.
Shortwaves traverse the flow on the west and southwest side of the
low, bringing regular rain chances to our area. The first shortwave
pushes across the area this evening and overnight, with showers and
thunderstorms preceding the H7 wave. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday as a boundary lifts northward
ahead of another shortwave. This axis of development remains in the
area overnight and is expected to slowly traverse the region through
much of Wednesday, keeping showers and storms in the forecast
through the evening. Heading into the late week period, timing is
less certain, with continued chances for precipitation. Thursday
looks dry for most locations; however, there are several ensemble
scenarios that bring rain chances to eastern North Dakota. Friday
brings some uncertainty, but seems to carry a bit more consensus
between ensemble members regarding the likelihood to see
additional showers and thunderstorms.

...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Today...

Instability across southeast North Dakota, the southern Red River
Valley, and west central Minnesota will be supportive of a few
strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Soundings
confirm the presence of surface CAPE values generally just below
1000 J/Kg, but with very little shear. Dry air is in place at the
surface, which supports a mention of wind gusts; however, with weak
CAPE and shear, updrafts are expected to be somewhat short lived.
With the taller storms, we could see just enough moisture loading to
support 1 inch hail and wind gusts to 60 mph. Many storms, however,
will struggle to reach severe strength.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Look for a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening at all TAF sites. MVFR conditions are
expected during periodic thunderstorm activity, with otherwise
VFR conditions through the period. Winds this afternoon increase out
of the northwest at 15-20 knots, with periodic gusts to 25
knots.

A few storms today could become strong to severe, with hazards
including 1 inch hail and wind gusts to 60 mph. Most
thunderstorm activity will struggle to maintain strength;
however, coverage should be sufficient to hold onto PROB30
groups through around 02Z.

Winds will shift to the northwest late this evening, then
diminish during the overnight hours. Heading into Tuesday
morning, winds shift back to the west, then increase to around
10-15 knots.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch