773
FXUS63 KFGF 312054
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
354 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light rain showers and drizzle are expected through
  this evening, with damp conditions during the main Trick-or-Treat
  period.

- Widespread rain is expected across the region Monday into
  Tuesday, with high chances for at least 1" of rainfall across
  southeast North Dakota into west central Minnesota.

- Warmer than normal temperatures continue, particularly Sunday
  and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...Synopsis...

Ridging continues to move eastward with southwest flow filling in
from the west. Warm air and moisture is advecting into the 925mb to
700mb layer, thus sustaining a low cloud deck and occasional mist
and light rain. Visibility could be impacted this evening and
overnight, with a chance for 1 to 3 mile visibility during peak
trick or treat hours due to mist and/or patchy fog. Warm
temperatures are expected Sunday into Monday, with afternoon highs
possibly approaching the 60s. This will be dependent on cloud cover,
which could be very slow to clear Sunday morning.

...Rain Event Monday/Tuesday...

A slow moving H5 trough is expected to deepen as we head into Sunday
and Monday. This will bring widespread rain chances into the area
through Tuesday, with around an 80 percent chance of at least a half
inch of rain across southeast North Dakota and west central
Minnesota. Chances decrease further north and west. The heaviest
rain will occur in response to a deformation zone that forms as the
upper low moves off to the northeast. As such, the track of the low
will ultimately determine where the heaviest amounts fall, which
could be upwards of 2 inches to 3 inches inside the deformation
band. Outside this band, the range will be lower, likely in the 0.5
inch to 1 inch range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

IFR to MVFR ceilings prevail across most locations heading into
the afternoon. KTVF remains VFR for now, but will become MVFR by
mid afternoon. Looking into the evening and overnight, ceilings
continue to fall, becoming IFR to LIFR as mist and/or fog forms
late this evening. Light rain and drizzle is possible, with the
best chances at KFAR and KBJI. Heading into Sunday morning,
conditions will slowly improve, however, cloud cover is expected
to remain IFR to MVFR through at least the first half of the
day.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch