443
FXUS63 KFGF 062324
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
624 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms this
  afternoon and evening, mainly in Minnesota. Main hazard is
  lightning, although couldn`t rule out small hail and gusty
  winds to 50 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...Synopsis...

Fairly strong shortwave moving through Manitoba will help push a
surface trough and cold front down into ND and MN tonight. The
front should be past all but our far southeastern counties by
tomorrow morning, with weak surface high pressure building in
behind the boundary for Friday. Northwesterly flow aloft for
Saturday, with a few of the ensemble members bringing a weak
embedded shortwave and breaking out some precipitation. CAPE
values from the ensemble average out to around 600 J/kg so if
anything does develop severe impacts are not expected.
Northwesterly flow aloft with some additional weak embedded
shortwaves moving through continues into the upcoming work week.
Currently the best probabilities for precipitation over a tenth
of an inch is Sunday night/Monday, but timing and placement could
change with such minor shortwaves.

...Shower and thunderstorm chances this afternoon and night...

Models continue to show a narrow band of instability out ahead
of the cold front this afternoon across southeastern ND into
western MN. SPC meso analysis has about 500 J/kg, and with a few
more hours of heating ML CAPE could get into the quadruple
digits. Shear is around 30 kts, but a weak shortwave could get a
few cells going that could produce some lightning, brief
downpours, and even a bit of small hail or gusts to 50 mph. The
cold front will drop through later tonight, with some additional
elevated thunderstorms possible but most of the CAMs keep
precipitation post frontal and unimpressive.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Winds are slowly decreasing this evening. There will be a wind
shift to the north as a cold front slides southeastward late
this evening into the overnight hours. The north to northwest
winds will persist throughout the remainder of the TAF period,
increasing Friday morning, with a couple of terminals acquiring
gusts by afternoon. Ahead of this wind shift, there is a brief
window for LLWS at KFAR and KBJI during the late evening and
early overnight hours. Ceilings will remain VFR throughout the
TAF period. Afternoon cumulus may develop Friday afternoon,
therefore added in SCT050 at all terminals.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Rafferty