342
FXUS63 KFGF 052321
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
621 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well below average temperatures continue unseasonably cool
  conditions through Wednesday.

- Near critical or critical fire weather conditions may develop
  Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

...Synopsis...

Expansive and stalled upper low continues to reside near the
Hudson Bay/ON region. This places our region under northerly and
northwesterly flow aloft, with a continual feed of relatively
cold air mass from north-interior Canada into our region. This
is driving our well below average temperatures, as well as
keeping low chance for rain and/or snow showers today and
Wednesday.

Warmer and much drier air will encroach into the Dakotas from
the west Thursday and Friday. There is potential for breezy
winds on both of these days as well. The combination of very dry
air, potential for elevated winds, and presently dry fuels will
drive potential for near critical or critical fire weather
conditions these days.

A shortwave trough and attendant surface cold front is forecast
to move through our region out of Canada in a clipper-like
fashion. This brings a low chance for light rain into our
region, while keeping temperatures near average behind it.

Next week, the influence of the stalled Hudson Bay upper low
over our region begins to lessen as upper ridging from the West
attempts to build eastward into the Norther Plains and Upper
Midwest. Uncertainty exists in how much ridging will occur over
our area, which will dictate temperatures. On one hand, ridging
may be weak into our area keeping temperatures near average. On
the other hand, ridging may be strong, pushing temperatures
above average. Both scenarios keep quasi-northwesterly flow
aloft, keeping the potential for additional progressive
shortwave trough and surface frontal passages and accompanying
progressive bouts of precipitation.

...Fire weather concerns late this week...

Vast majority of guidance indicates a very dry air mass moving
into the Dakotas and Minnesota from the west starting Thursday.
This will push RH values into the 20s Thursday and Friday,
perhaps even into the teens if deeper mixing occurs. This is
very dry for our area. Deeper mixing will likely ensue if we
stay mostly sunny on either of these days, which still remains a
possibility, but is low in confidence.

While confidence is high in very dry conditions developing
these days, confidence is low on winds. This is again stemming
from potential to mix deeper than currently advertised. While
winds currently forecast are under 25 mph, if even a slight push
of deeper mixing occurs, gusts could reach into the 30s mph.
This would result in critical fire weather conditions if this
occurs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Widespread stratus in the VFR ranges (4000-6000ft agl) are in
place across eastern ND and northwest MN, and should continue
through the evening and early overnight. There is still a signal
for a period of MVFR (1900-3000ft agl) after 09Z developing out
of Canada, with the most likely impacts at KDVL, KTVF, and KBJI.
Impacts at KGFK may be shorter in duration. This is shown to
improve back to the 4000-6000ft agl range by later morning.

Northwest winds should creasing below 12kt this evening,
increasing again to the 12-15kt range during the daytime period
Wednesday (chance for gusts around 20kt).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...DJR