433
FXUS63 KFGF 150107
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
707 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a signal for precipitation chances heading into next
  week. At this time, the chance for minor winter impacts is
  around 10 percent.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Cold front is moving through eastern ND and the Red River
Valley. Trailing behind the front is a swath of light rain.
While there is dry air in the low levels, enough moisture and
forcing behind the front/aloft is allowing light rain to reach
the ground.

Temperatures behind the front will remain warm enough before
precipitation ends to keep the type as rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...Synopsis...

Southwesterly flow at the surface has aided in solid warm air
advection across the region this morning. This has facilitated
warming temperatures and combined with diurnal trends in heating
will allow for areas with mostly clear skies to approach
records. Cloud cover may hamper some heating in the northern
tier of the CWA, so it may be more of a struggle to hit daily
highs.

Water vapor satellite shows an upper low currently attempting to
dig southeastward. Attached to this is a frontal boundary that
will sweep through this evening and overnight. Forcing is very
weak with limited synoptic support, so impacts will be minimal.
Additionally, with the warmth of the column, precipitation types
should remain primarily rain, although a few flakes may make it
in.

This weekend will be cooler with drier conditions prevailing.
Ensemble spread increases as we progress into next week with
split-flow.

...WINTER IMPACTS NEXT WEEK...

Split flow across the CONUS has created wide ensemble spread for
potential winter impacts next week. There remains high
confidence in at least some system impacting the CONUS, but to
what degree this means for our area is the question. At this
time, it appears more and more likely that impacts should remain
away from our area, however if we do receive impacts it will
more likely than not trend towards advisory level impacts.
Cluster maxes indicate reasonable ceilings at advisory level
impacts due to accumulating snow, however these represent the
absolute most extreme circumstances. Given high uncertainty in
temperatures through the timeframe of this system and where max
forcing lies, WSSI-P values remain around 10% for minor impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 656 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through 00Z Sunday. Cold front moves
through the region shifting winds from southerly to north-
northwest, while still maintaining around 10-15 kt. After 16Z,
wind gusts between 20-25kt begin, gradually tapering off toward
late afternoon. An area of light rain will follow closely behind
the cold front for 2 or so hours. No visibility or ceiling
degradation will accompany this cold front or light rain.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...CJ