887
FXUS63 KFGF 151135
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
535 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy blowing and drifting snow today may lead to slick
  spots and minor travel impacts.

- Hazardous wind chills are possible once more heading into the
  weekend. Wind chills of -40 or lower are possible this weekend
  through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

...Synopsis...

A layer of very warm air at 850mb is advecting into the area this
morning along a rather strong thermal ridge. Along the leading edge
of the ridge axis, there are scattered snow showers showing up on
radar; however, little ground truth exist, with minimal reports of
anything reaching the ground thus far. CAMs and HREF show the
potential for continued light snow as the ridge brings moisture into
the low to mid levels. Looking at soundings there is a low chance
that we see saturation in the slightly warmer layers, which could
support patchy freezing drizzle. At this time, however, the vast
majority of guidance keeps most saturated layers at or below -10C.
As such, most precip reaching the ground today should be snow. At
the surface, winds are shifting to the southwest as the ridge
approaches, with WAA bringing temps up through the morning. As a
result high temperatures are likely to climb well into the 20s
and low 30s, with perhaps some upper 30s possible west of the
Red River Valley.

A warmer air mass will remain in place heading into
Thursday, allowing another day of well above average high temps in
the middle 20s to middle 30s; the warmest temperatures will once
more be near Devils Lake. Heading into Friday, a surge of warm air
precedes a cold front that will usher in much colder air later in
the day and into the weekend. Look for high temps in the 20s to low
30s early in the day before falling sharply Friday afternoon and
evening. Another round of generally light snow is possible with this
frontal passage. Much colder temperatures return this weekend, with
perhaps the coldest air of the season thus far.

...Patchy Blowing and Drifting Snow Today...

A thermal ridge will move through the area today, with pressure
rises following the ridge passage late this morning. Winds are
expected to be gusty out of the southwest across much of the area,
and especially west of the Red River. As winds increase this
morning, blowing and drifting snow are possible, which could lead to
minor travel impacts due to slick spots as temperatures increase.
The window for this looks to be somewhat narrow as snow will become
less blowable as we approach the freezing mark heading into the
afternoon.

...Hazardous Wind Chills This Weekend...

A strong cold front remains on track to traverse the Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest starting Friday afternoon, bringing what could be
the coldest air of the season to the region. Ensemble guidance is in
strong agreement regarding the likelihood of seeing hazardous wind
chills Saturday night into Sunday morning, with continued chances
into the early part of next week. Early ensemble probabilities show
a near 100 percent chance for wind chills of less than 30 below zero
Sunday morning, with nearly an 80 percent chance for wind chills of
less than 40 below zero. Much is the same for Monday morning,
with a 70 percent chance to see wind chills at or below 40 below
zero.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

IFR conditions prevail this morning at KTVF and KBJI as blowing
snow is impacting visibility and ceilings at times. A wind
shift is expected today as southerly winds become more westerly,
and then northwesterly through the afternoon and evening. This
wind shift may take a bit longer at KGFK and KFAR. Light snow is
possible at times due to additional moisture moving into the
area in the low to mid levels, which will also lead to stratus
development. As such, Conditions could vary between MVFR and
IFR, especially this afternoon and early evening. LLWS is a
concern today as well as a low level jet brings near-surface winds
upwards of 45 knots. As noted earlier, KGFK and KFAR will see
more resistance to the westerly wind shift (due to persistent
valley drainage winds), which could make LLWS more impactful at
these locations. This will become less of an issue once winds
shift to the northwest later this evening.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch