810
FXUS63 KFGF 140440
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1140 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for a few strong storms Sunday evening through Monday
  morning. Additional signals for potential severe storms Monday
  afternoon.

- Active pattern keeps daily thunderstorm chances in the
  forecast nearly each day next week. Strong to severe storms
  are possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Stratus has slowly started to fill back in from the south, with
mostly clear skies persisting in our northeast. General trends
are on track, so only minor near term adjustments were made
since last update.

UPDATE
Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

There is a bit more clearing in our northeast (closer to the
surface ridge center, however the stratus is holding on across
our south and west. WIth the moist east-southeast flow in place
through the night into Saturday there is a signal for fog
development in the southern RRV and west central MN. The lack of
clearing limits (dense fog unlikely without breaks in stratus).
I added patchy fog mention to our south for the 10-15Z
climatologically favored period to cover this signal.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...Synopsis...

Zonal progressive H5 flow continues into the weekend and the early
part of next week. Transient H7 shortwaves are expected nearly each
day from Sunday onward through the end of the week, with a trend
towards southwest flow at the low to mid levels by Tuesday morning.
This will be ahead of a surface low working it`s way across the
Northern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible, with some support for strong to severe
thunderstorms. Uncertainty still remains in the timing of the
shortwave as diurnal heating will influence the potential severity
of any thunderstorm activity. A surface ridge sets up late next
week, followed by a return to southwest flow heading into next
weekend.

...Active Pattern Starting Sunday...

A progressive H7 shortwave traverses the flow Sunday into Monday,
bringing our next chance for showers and thunderstorms. While a few
strong storms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening, the better
instability looks to stay just south of the area. Current timing
brings the best rain chances across the southern portions of the Red
River Valley during the overnight period into Monday morning.
Additional strong and perhaps even a few severe storms are possible
Monday, with timing still a bit uncertain at this time. Run to run
variation has increased over the last 24 hours, thus lowering
overall confidence in a single solution.

A much larger and slow moving system moves across the area late
Monday through Wednesday, with a closed H7 low expected to form over
the northern portions of the Intermountain West, then move east into
the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The chance for strong
thunderstorms looks uncertain once more, as instability is pushed
southward.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

MVFR stratus is expected to overspread eastern ND and parts of
northwest MN, and there is a low chance for IFR ceilings
Saturday morning (better chances in far southeast ND). The
pattern remains locked in place, and while a consensus of
guidance is showing improvement to VFR at most terminals
Saturday afternoon I could see a few sites remaining MVFR longer
than currently shown (KFAR has best chance). Weak gradient
remains in place with limited winds aloft, so 5-10kt southeast
to easterly winds are expected to persist through the TAF
period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR