418
FXUS63 KFGF 071750
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1250 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms today. The
  main impacts for any storms that become severe will be ping
  pong ball sized hail and winds to 60 mph. Flash Flooding is
  also possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Cloud cover continues to increase this morning across the area.
Winds will start to increase out of the south by mid morning,
with sustained south to southeast winds of 10-15 mph, with gusts
up to 25 mph heading into the afternoon. Thunderstorm timing is
slightly more resolved in recent guidance, with chances
increasing around midday and persisting into the late afternoon
to early evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...Synopsis...

Several weak shortwaves under the main upper ridge currently
bringing some thunderstorms to central ND and eastern SD.
The main surface low and inverted trough is still over the
western Dakotas, and should begin to move eastward tomorrow as
the flow turns southwesterly and a lead shortwave moves out. The
main upper trough starts to move into Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Monday night, pushing the surface trough and associated cold
front east into the Red River Valley by early Tuesday. West to
northwest surface winds will pick up Tuesday and Wednesday
behind the surface front with decent cold air advection and
pressure gradient, possibly meeting advisory criteria. Near
zonal flow sets up late week and into next weekend, although a
cluster of 34 percent of ensemble members tries to dig a trough
into the Northern Plains. There is a signal in the ECMWF EFI for
a break in the above normal temperatures by next weekend.

...Severe chances this afternoon and evening...

Water vapor loop has the main shortwaves to our south or west,
but there is a small vort currently moving through central ND
that could provide support for more convection as it moves into
our forecast area. ML CAPE is around 3000 J/kg, and while deep
layer shear is not super strong it is around 30 to 35 kts which
should be enough to keep some updrafts going. The low level
lapse rates are not too impressive given the stratus we have
seen much of the day, but there is a decent amount of
instability thanks to dew points in the 70s and temps in the
80s. CAMs continue to be very unreliable and enough ensemble
members of the HREF were showing good probability of updraft
helicity tracks over the southern Red River Valley this morning,
which have not developed. Some of the machine learning runs show
some low to moderate chances for severe impacts, while other
runs do not. Can`t completely rule out more convection
developing as the central ND vort moves east, but uncertainty is
high as to what actually develops. If severe storms do develop,
the main threat will be large hail.

...Marginal risk for severe Monday...

The ridge axis shifts east tomorrow and the flow aloft becomes
southwesterly. Deep layer shear will be increasing up into the
40 to 50 kt range by tomorrow afternoon. But the instability
becomes more uncertain. Some of the ensemble members don`t have
any surface based CAPE at all, but enough do that the mean CAPE
into eastern ND is around 1500 J/kg. Much will depend on what
exactly happens this evening and into the overnight. HREF and
REFS updraft helicity probabilities have some chance, but not
super impressive. At this point with all the unknowns the level
1 risk seems reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Highly variable flight conditions are expected through this
evening and overnight as lingering MVFR (pockets of IFR)
stratus slowly break up through the early afternoon becoming
VFR, while clusters of showers and thunderstorms track west to
east through the afternoon and evening. Coverage of
thunderstorms will also vary, with the potential for a lull
before redevelopment occurs. Brief MVFR or IFR may occur with
thunderstorm activity, with some potential for severe storms
mainly during the evening hours in ND. Tendency should be for
prevailing VFR after the thunderstorm activity ends in ND,
however parts of MN remain in the moist air mass ahead of a
frontal zone and MVFR or IFR stratus is more likely to redevelop
there Sunday morning before clearing with daytime mixing.

Southeast winds periodically gusting around 25kt are expected
into the early evening before decreasing and shifting as a front
moves through the region. Winds increase from the southwest
then west Sunday, and wind gusts 30kt or greater become likely
by the afternoon in ND and parts of northwest MN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR