219
FXUS63 KFGF 031216
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
616 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional round of rain tonight into Wednesday affecting
  mainly far southeast North Dakota and west central into north
  central Minnesota. Additional rainfall less than 1 inch.

- Breezy north winds are expected today into Wednesday, with
  sustained values of 15-25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph. Highest
  winds will be in the Red River Valley and adjacent locations.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 446 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

The first 500 mb wave and surface low is moving northeast and at
09z was locdated near Thunder Bay Ontario. Rain with this wave
exists the local area by dawn, leaving behind low clouds and
areas of drizzle and very light rain thru much of the day.
Tonight into Wednesday the upper low in eastern Kansas lifts
north-northeast into central Iowa with surfaced low by 12z Wed
near the Twin Cities, though Canadian global has low farther
west and thus higher rainfall farther west into our region vs
the other models which keep heaviest rainfall just clipping our
southeast fcst area (Wadena) where near 1 inch of additional
rain anticipated. Winds will continue northerly 15-25 mph
sustained with gusts 35-40 mph into Wednesday, strongest within
the Red River valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper low continues to move northeast this afternoon and
evening, with widespread rain observed across much of eastern
North Dakota, west central Minnesota, and northwest Minnesota.
Winds have started to shift to the northeast, and will continue
to become more northerly through the evening hours and
overnight. The upper low slowly exits the area late Tuesday into
Wednesday morning, with breezy north winds expected through
much of Tuesday. Much cooler air pours into the Northern Plains,
with temperatures close to average values Tuesday through
Friday. Our next chance for precipitation will be late Saturday
into Sunday as a fast moving trough moves across the area.

...Heavy Rain Through Wednesday...

Moderate to heavy rain will continue through the remainder of
the afternoon and evening across much of eastern North Dakota,
northwest Minnesota, and west central Minnesota. An upper low is
slowly moving to the northeast, but is expected to occlude and
briefly become cut off from the upper flow as we go through the
day Tuesday. As this happens, there could be a slight westward
shift of the system. This could keep light rain in the forecast
through much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday morning,
especially east of the Red River Valley. At this time, there is
about a 75 percent chance to see an additional 0.25-0.50 inch in
the central Red River Valley, with higher chances further east.
Some locales could see upwards of 3 inches by Wednesday
morning, with the best chances being in west central Minnesota
(25 percent chance).

...Breezy North Winds Tuesday...

North winds fill into the area as the H5 low moves slowly
eastward. These winds will increase this evening and overnight,
with 15-25 mph sustained winds expected by early Tuesday
morning. Gusts up to 40 mph are possible, especially in the
central and southern Red River Valley. Pressure rises are
expected to be sufficient to favor a few higher gusts; however,
with 700-850mb winds in the 35-45 knot range, and generally weak
cold air advection, there is minimal support for anything more
than occasional advisory level gusts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 613 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

IFR or LIFR is the predominate aviation category thru the day
into tonight. Exception is KDVL which may rise in ceilings to
above 1000 ft agl and after 00z may rise into VFR range
depending on how far east any clearing of low clouds get. Could
have brief increase in ceiling just above 1000 ft agl at KFAR
and KGFK today as well, but expect that to be brief. North wind
gusts 28-34 kts KGFK and KFAR and slightly less other locations.
North wind gusts to diminish a little tonight to under 30 kts.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Riddle