703
FXUS63 KFGF 231534
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
934 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Impacts to holiday travel are possible Tuesday and Wednesday
  with a 70% chance of minor (advisory type) winter impacts.

- Below average temperatures arrive after Wednesday, with a more
  active precipitation pattern possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Pretty tranquil weather out there this morning with some light
echos in northwest Minnesota but 5-8k ft of dry air between the
echos and ground are proving far to much for anything to reach
the ground. On a different note we will be on record watch in
Fargo as the daily high record is 54 set in 1984. A current
forecast high of 56 will be the thing to watch weatherwise
today... never mind all the chatter about the winter weather in
a few days ;)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 443 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...Synopsis...

H5 ridging prevails today into Monday across the area, with warmer
than average high temperatures in the upper 40s to upper 50s today.
A weak cold front brings temps down slightly on Monday, with highs
generally in the 40s. A much stronger system is set to move through
the region Tuesday and Wednesday as a strong H5 trough combines with
an upper low. This will bring widespread precipitation starting late
Monday as rain, then into Tuesday as a rain/snow mix, then all snow.
North to northwest winds are also expected, ranging from 15-20 mph
with gusts as high as 35 mph Tuesday afternoon. These conditions
should start to diminish during the overnight hours and into
Wednesday morning. Much colder air follows this system as afternoon
highs Wednesday only reach the lower to middle 20s. Reinforcing cold
air brings temps down further as we head into Thursday and Friday,
with another chance for precipitation heading into the weekend.

...Winter Impacts Tuesday into Wednesday...

Confidence is increasing in regards to winter impacts heading into
Tuesday. A strong H5 trough will be moving southeast into the
Northern Plains, while H5 low pressure moves northeast along
southwest flow. The two features are expected to combine late Monday
night into Tuesday morning, with the trough possibly closing off
into a closed low by midday Tuesday. At this time, ensemble guidance
seems to be coming into better agreement, both spatially and
temporally. Although there is good agreement synoptically, the
heaviest bands of snow will be located along mesoscale features that
form as the low pivots to the northeast on Tuesday. As such, there
is still some uncertainty surrounding the exact amounts expected an
any given location. At this time, the heaviest snowfall looks to
favor areas south of Highway 2 and north of I-94 in west central and
northwest Minnesota. Given the distribution of possible solutions,
there is still quite a range of accumulation potential, with the
10th and 90th percentiles showing 1 inch and 8 inches respectively.
The median and mean are in the 2-4 inch range. Areas where
accumulations are heavier will also face the concern of blowing snow
as winds increase out of the north Tuesday afternoon, potentially
leading to visibility reductions. At this time, the WSSI-P shows a
70 percent chance for minor impacts and a 20 percent chance for
moderate impacts across parts of the area. It is worth noting that
if we see the 75th to 90th percentile snowfall in a given area, very
difficult travel conditions are likely, especially when considering
the higher wind gusts.

...Active Winter Weather Remains Possible Next Week...

Looking into Thursday and Friday, much colder temperatures are
expected as highs struggle to reach the low 20s on Thursday. Several
reinforcing surges of cold air are expected through the end of the
week, along with a chance for additional snowfall as we head into
the weekend. At this time, guidance is showing a large range of
potential solutions, with generally low confidence in a single
scenario.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites. SCT
to BKN clouds are expected through much of the day, with bases
generally greater than 8000 feet. Winds gradually shift to the
west, then increase by midday, with gusts ranging from 18-25
knots everywhere except KBJI. Overall, the probability for
aviation impacts is minimal.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 934 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Record High Temperatures:

November 23:
KFAR: 54/1984
KPKD: 52/1908

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch
CLIMATE... TT