442
FXUS63 KFGF 110432
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1132 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler, windier weather Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...Synopsis...

A lead shortwave will come off of the main upper trough
currently over the northern Rockies/Plains, lifting through our
CWA this afternoon and off into southern Canada tonight. The
trough axis/frontal boundary will push through our MN counties
and be through most of the CWA by this evening. The main upper
trough starts to move off into the Upper Midwest and Ontario
tomorrow and tomorrow night. Quite a few rain showers being
produced by models under fairly cool air aloft, but CAPE values
look to be less than 500 J/kg so severe threat is minimal.
Northwesterly flow aloft sets up for the weekend and into the
first part of next week, with a few weak reinforcing shortwaves
moving through.

...Severe threat this afternoon...

With the SPC meso page showing around 1500-2000 J/kg ML CAPE and
effective shear in the 35 to 40 kt range, the severe threat will
continue over our eastern counties for at least the next few
hours. Some showers and thunderstorms have also developed behind
the cold front near Jamestown but instability is much weaker.
Cooler temperatures and drier dew points on the backside of the
surface trough, so most of our deep convection will be out ahead
of it. Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for our MN counties
through 01Z, but will likely be able to cancel before then as
most of our severe threat will be over after the cold front
pushes through. SSCRAM probabilities around 25 to 30 percent for
severe hail currently drop off quickly below 10 percent,
although the HRRR still tries to develop some convection over
the northern Red River Valley later this evening. Low level
shear is not too impressive, and tornado activity isn`t super
likely. However, hail up to 1.5 inches and winds to 60 mph will
continue as the cold front moves across northwestern MM.

...Cooler and breezy weekend into next week...

Warm signal in the ECWMF EFI just for today and into Thursday
morning, then flips over to cooler than climo temperatures.
Nothing really impactful, but a break from head advisory
conditions we saw yesterday. Low pressure over southern Canada
will continue to bring a pretty tight pressure gradient through
the end of the work week and into the weekend. Decent mixing up
to 800 mb, but even the bullish BUFKIT soundings stay below wind
advisory criteria. Breezy conditions look likely, but nothing
warranting messaging at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through 12Z Thursday morning. The
chance for MVFR stratus increases Thursday morning in north
central MN and may spread into northeast ND and parts of
northwest MN. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
overspread the region from the northwest to southeast Thursday
behind another cold front, ending by the evening hours as peak
heating ends. Southwest winds increase again from the west-
northwest Thursday during the daytime period, with a chance for
gusts to 30kt in eastern ND (30%).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR