560
FXUS63 KFGF 190543
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1143 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread weather impacts are not expected through this
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Adjusted POPs for current radar trends as a few showers have
entered far northwestern MN as well as a few from the next
round have started into the Devils Lake Basin. Anything reaching
the ground will be very light and impacts minimal.

UPDATE
Issued at 957 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Cloudy with most of the shower activity still to our north and
west. Still looking like better precipitation chances will hold
off until we head into Wednesday.

UPDATE
Issued at 640 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

A few radar returns moving across the northern Red River Valley
this evening, with a trace to a hundredth reaching the ground
in a few spots seen on NDAWN. With temps in the upper 30s and
all liquid reported, impacts are negligible. Better chances for
showers tomorrow as a weak shortwave comes over the top of the
ridge.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...Synopsis...

Weak flow aloft with water vapor imagery revealing a weakening
cut off low over the Midwest, broad upper ridging over the
Northern Plains into central Canada, as well as a well
established cut off low off of the California coast. A low
amplitude upper shortwave trough is also seen near the Northern
Rockies/southern Canadian Rockies. This weak flow regime also
translates to the surface, with broad surface high pressure over
northern MN into the Red River Valley. Some light rain
showers/sprinkles exist in eastern ND this afternoon into early
evening with weak instability utilized by weak warm air and
moisture advection.

The subtle shortwave trough in the Northern Rockies/southern
Canadian Rockies will slide eastward through the southern tier
of Canada tomorrow and Thursday. This will bring light
precipitation to our area Wednesday night into Thursday. Fog is
also forecast in areas outside of the Red River Valley as low
clouds move in, scraping against the surface.

Temperatures are forecast tonight into early Wednesday to be
just warm enough to keep precipitation type as dominantly a
cold, but non- freezing rain. However, there may be a very local
and brief overlap where precip initially falls as snow before
quickly transitioning to rain within portions of north- central
MN. The brevity of potential wintry mix will greatly limit
potential for impacts, with none forecast at this time. There is
an absence of mesoscale forcing/influence with this wave, thus
confidence is higher in this outcome.

Late this week into the weekend, ensemble guidance agrees
deepening broad upper troughing over Ontario into the Great
Lakes region and eventually over the Northeast, inducing flat
northwesterly flow aloft, with increasing winds aloft/jet. The
cut off low over the California coast is also strongly agreed to
survive while slowly migrate eastward into the Southern Plains
by late weekend. This pattern would generally promote
progressive surface frontal passages, and a general lack of
moisture to keep conditions mostly dry. Generally warmer than
average temperatures are forecast through this pattern despite
the frontal passages, with highs in the 30s and 40s. Some
locations are liable to reach into the 50s this weekend should
skies remain mostly sunny.

Ensemble guidance greatly diverges in synoptic evolution getting
into next week. This mainly stems from uncertainty in how the
cut off low now in the Southern Plains will interact and evolve
with the overall synoptic pattern, including interaction with a
potential shortwave trough out of the Pacific Northwest moving
into the central CONUS. Should both of these features interact
in a way that promotes more amplification of the pattern,
including troughing over the CONUS, the chance for
precipitation and colder air increases for our area (conversely
less amplification/interaction and/or ridging would promote
drier, warmer conditions). Overall, the chance for snow/wintry
precipitation into our area mid-next week (around Tuesday-
Wednesday) is around 20% as supported by NBM guidance as well as
cluster analysis of global ensembles, with no appreciable
signal for significant accumulations exceeding 3 inches present
at this time. The chance for advisory-level winter impacts is
around 10%, accounting for uncertainties around surface
temperatures promoting/hindering potential impacts from
potential accumulations.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR conditions at all TAF sites as ceilings with 5000-10000 ft
move across the area. Will see some MVFR, and then possibly IFR
ceilings come in later tonight and into tomorrow. Some spots
could see fog development, although at this point the best
chances for less than a mile visibility look to be north of
KDVL. A bit of light rain will be possible at KGFK and the MN
airports tomorrow afternoon, but somewhat scattered so kept
mention VCSH. KFAR should improve to VFR by the end of the
period, but think the rest of the TAF sites will remain MVFR
through the end of the period. Winds that are light and
southeasterly will become more southwesterly to westerly at
around 10 kts by tomorrow afternoon or evening.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...JR