924
FXUS63 KFGF 041654
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1154 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts up to 50 mph will occur this afternoon into early
  evening within portions of eastern North Dakota into the far
  southern Red River Valley.

- Widespread frost potential Saturday night/early Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Main update was to expand the Wind Advisory into portions of the
western and southern Devils Lake basin as well as into the far
southern Red River Valley this afternoon. Latest guidance brings
the bubble of strong cold air advection as well as sharp surface
pressure rise/gradient a bit further east than previous
guidance. Latest trends in surface observations support this
trend. Gusts into these expanded area may be relatively more
sporadic in duration/coverage compared to areas within southeast
North Dakota, although still enough to pose minor impacts given
full leaves still on trees.

Otherwise, rain is expanding generally as forecast within the
region as the seasonably strong clipper moves out of SK/MB
through the Dakotas and Minnesota.

UPDATE
Issued at 722 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Rain entering Cando and Rugby area on schedule...should reach
Grand Forks area by 10 am and then Fargo area 11 am to noon.
Track of surface low and upper low does look like heaviest
rainfall with highest chance of more than one half inch will be
Langdon to just north/east of Grand Forks to Bemidji area. That
is where the frontogenetical forcing is highest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

...Synopsis...


Clouds early this morning to no surprise affecting temperatures.
Clouds have been most persistent in NW MN in a zone from near
Roseau south to Park Rapids, Wadena. This area was in the area
where if it does clear yet before dawn, temps will still drop as
winds calm in this zone. Clearer sky longer in NE ND and esp DVL
basin and have seen temps into the 33-37 range in this area...so
areas of frost there as clouds spreading in seem a bit slower
than originally thought.

Getting to today...model data remains consistent in taking a
pretty strong 500 mb wave and surface low from east central
Saskatchewan south-southeast to near Fargo by mid
afternoon. Solid rain area just north/east of this track in
area of mid level frontogenetical forcing which sets up over the
northern RRV midday and early aftn. Rainfall in main band from
Brandon MB thru Langdon to Grand Forks to Park Rapids area has
80 pct chance of up to 0.50 inch with 30 percent chance of up to
0.75 inch and 10 pct chance of 1 inch when looking at the high
resolution ensembles.

...Winds this aftn/eve in parts of SE ND...

Low pressure track will also bring in a period of strong cold
air advection at 850 mb and a zone of where mixing up thru 800
mb is possible this aftn from northwest into south central ND
where 50 kts may mix down. That eastern edge of higher wind
potential does include areas near Valley City to Lisbon to
Forman and west....so collab with BIS/ABR did go wind advisory
20z to 02z (3 pm to 9 pm today) in those 3 counties which is the
time period for best cold advection and mixing, esp that 21z-00z
period.

Friday will see upper low in Ontario with northwest wind and
likely stratocu and cool temps with shower chances in NW MN,
more so Lake of the Woods area.

Another 500 mb short wave looks to drop south thru western
Manitoba into Red River valley Saturday. Could bring a few
showers, but models differ enough and most hold pops blo 15pct.
Clouds will be around thought.

...Frost potential Sat night/early Sunday...

Best clearing takes place Sat night with high pressure tracking
southeast into central ND and eastern SD 12z Sunday. This track
and sky cover trends will favor widespread frost potential for
most of the area, except far east or northeast fcst area due to
clouds.

Warming up next week with shower or t-storm chances increasing
but not til toward the end of next week as upper low in Ontario
moves out with an upper ridge building in and southwest flow
developing.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Rain coming in will bring a period of MVFR ceilings and then a
period of potential IFR cigs as the low moves thru mid to late
afternoon. Winds highly dependent on location and track of the
low. South to southeast this morning then turning east to north
far NE ND/NW MN north of low track and then more southwest to
northwest SE ND into WC MN west of the low track. Gusty winds
mid to late aftn/eve but highest winds to be Valley City-Gwinner
AWOS locations with gusts from northwest of 40 kts possible
20z-02z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for NDZ014-024-028-038-049-052-053.
MN...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for MNZ029-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle