287
FXUS63 KFGF 151111
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
611 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered Shower chances Wednesday with more widespread rain
  Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...Synopsis...

Strong mid/upper low centered near northeast Montana/northwest
North Dakota and southern Saskatchewan will continue to slide
northeast through tonight. This system is responsible for the
ongoing rain and expected period of windy conditions tonight.
The evolution of the larger scale pattern over the next 7 days
will initially be complicated across the Northern Plains as
stalled troughing to the west and weaker ridging in the central
CONUS places us in a split- flow type set-up before the upstream
trough breaks loose. Trend should be for warmer temperatures
than the last 3 days, however due to the flatter nature of the
ridging, we should be mild rather than hot. As climate averages
are in the lower 70s and dropping towards the upper 60s by the
end of this month, this pattern with some locations in the mid
to upper 70s is above average but not that unseasonable.

Regarding precipitation chances beyond today; there is a low
chance for a light shower/sprinkle Tuesday afternoon with
cyclonic flow and CAA aloft lingering in our north (wetting rain
not expected). There is a weaker/progressive mid level
shortwave Tuesday (main wave in the northern stream in Canada)
otherwise better chances for wetting rain do not arrive until
Friday-Sunday as the upstream trough breaks loose and tracks
over the Northern Plains. Evolution/details remain variable and
at this time this should be a much weaker trough passage than
what we are seeing today lowering the chance for widespread
wetting rain.

...Rain Showers Today...

The main area of rain is continuing to transition east over
northwest MN with scattered showers and some areas of drizzle
due to lingering deeper BL saturation in southeast BL flow. The
main dry slot featuring well defined subsidence is already
moving across western ND towards eastern ND and organized shower
activity should exit our region west to east. Drizzle/lower
level rain processes will be harder to pin down and may linger
along with light fog into the evening before clearing as winds
start to shift more to the southwest in the BL. In any case, dry
conditions are favored by late evening.

...Winds Tonight...

A cold front already starting to push east over wester ND will
arrive later this evening and increased CAA 925MB will result
in dry adiabatic mixed layer off the surface. While there may be
a shallow nocturnal inversion, pressure rises and strong CAA at
925MB should help create at least a period of stronger winds
from the west then northwest as the front passes. Winds near the
top of the mixed layer may be near 50kt over parts of the
Devils Lake Basin, and this raises the potential for a few
localized gusts 58mph+, though more frequent gusts with the
period of stronger winds would be 45-50mph. Due to the direction
of the winds and orientation of unidirectional flow through the
mixed layer being westerly it is less favorable for stronger
gusts east of the Red River Valley escarpment, which matches
higher resolution guidance in placement of advisory conditions
mainly west of the valley in the 10pm-7am period. There is still
potential for a few gusts 45-50 mph farther east or south than
the current advisory, however location/duration/coverage are
much less certain due to the previously mentioned flow/wind
direction. It will be something to monitor in the event we have
to expand the advisory based on trends this evening.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Remaining MVFR cigs will lift this morning to VFR by or around
noon with winds dropping through the day. Winds becoming more
northwest through the day until high pressure settles in
overnight with winds then going light and variable. BKN cigs
through the morning before SCT to SKC for the remainder of the
period behind the low that brought yesterdays rain.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-028-029-038-054.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...TT