041
FXUS63 KFGF 021952
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
252 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below average temperatures will occur mid to late week, with
  morning frost likely over parts of the region. This includes a
  40% chance for below freezing temperatures in northwest
  Minnesota Thursday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...Synopsis...

Upper low over northern Manitoba will dig down into Ontario and
northern MN later tonight. The cold front is through all but our
four southeastern counties, and should push the rest of the way
through by the evening. There is some elevated instability behind
the front, but also subsidence and cumulus has has been on a
downward trend in that area. According to CAMs, still could see
a cell or two develop in southern Otter Tail or Grant county
before moving southeast, but many of the ensemble members keep
convection southeast of our CWA. Probabilities of strong updraft
helicity tracks from the HREF are less than 20 percent, and most
of the severe impacts will be down over central MN.

The upper low will continue to dig into MN/WI tomorrow, with
surface high pressure building into the Plains. Northwesterly
flow continues through the rest of the week and into the
weekend, with one strong reinforcing shortwave coming down on
Thursday and another weaker one Saturday. Flow starts to become
less amplified by the end of the weekend, with another shortwave
coming through by Monday into Tuesday and temperatures climbing
back closer to seasonal values.

...Frost/freeze potential...

There is little question that temperatures will dip down to
below seasonal values, with the ECMWF EFI showing a strong
signal for a cool trend. Exactly how cold and if we get any
frost to form will depend on cloud cover. With the reinforcing
shortwave on Thursday and the possibility of clouds coming in
before the precipitation arrives, we won`t have the typical
conditions for frost formation. That being said, there is still
high probability of getting down to 36 degrees or below east of
the Red River and a 40 percent chance of reaching 32 degrees in
northwestern MN Thursday morning. Will continue to keep
mentioning the cooler temperatures and possibility of freeze,
but too much uncertainty for any headlines yet.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

VFR to MVFR conditions and several sites showing stratus on the
backside of the frontal boundary and even in a few spots out
ahead of the front. Should see a break to VFR conditions for all
sites later this evening, then back down to MVFR for most of our
airports for a period tomorrow morning as cooler air moves down
from the north. Winds northwesterly gusting up to 25 kts this
afternoon and some spots will drop a bit in speed overnight,
then pick up again with gusts above 20 kts tomorrow morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR