952
FXUS63 KFGF 251739
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1239 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorm chances late Friday afternoon
  into Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Light rain continues to push north across the southern forecast
area, and is starting to become more showery as it goes north of
the I-94 corridor. Lightning probabilities have remained mostly
southeast of our area but will continue to monitor as there is
still some decent cumulus developing.

UPDATE
Issued at 943 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Rain continues to push into the southern CWA, so made some
adjustments to POPs to reflect current trends. Probabilities of
lightning are mostly 10 percent or below, except for portions of
Grant and southern Ottertail counties, where probs have gone up
to 30-50 percent at times. Will continue to monitor for isolated
to scattered lightning activity, but otherwise rain looks to
have minimal impacts this morning.

UPDATE
Issued at 708 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Radar showing expanding area of moderate rainfall from eastern
SD into far SE ND west central MN so spread the high categorical
pops a bit farther north. Will continue to watch trends as not
sure some models are picking up on the more north advance of
heavier rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...Synopsis...

An upper level wave coming out of the 500 mb trough over Nevada
is moving thru Utah and into western South Dakota. It is helping
to send the plume of deeper moisture that resides from parts of
Mexico into New Mexico and Colorado northward into South Dakota.
The deeper moisture will then move more east around the
northwest side of an upper ridge over the Mid Atlantic
states/central Appalachians. Look for periodic showers and
t-storms with heavy rainfall to our south where 2+ inches of
rain is forecast southern MN. There is a separate short wave
moving more north and thru ND today mostly coming out of western
Wyoming and eastern Montana. This will move ENE thru the area
the next 24-36 hours. While the deeper moisture is cut off
from this wave, enough lift with it and enough mostly mid level
moisture to bring scattered showers to the area today into
Thursday. Farther south toward SD border and south parts of west
central MN will see higher chances with 60 pct chance of more
than 0.50 inch Wadena to Fergus Falls then along the SD border.
Chances of more than 0.50 inch fall off sharply Fargo-Park
Rapids and north. Instability is rather weak and cloud cover
will limit daytime heating. Thus thunderstorm activity will be
weak in intensity with the majority of what falls as showers.

...Friday-Saturday severe chance...

This wave moves out Thu night. As it does a upper wave moves
east off the Pacific into western Saskatchewan Thursday evening.
This will interact with an area of 700-1200 j/kg MU CAPE and
produce scattered storms, possibly severe, in eastern Montana
north thru Regina. As this short wave and associated surface
trough/wind shift move east it will encounter higher levels of
moisture as dew pts climb into the upper 60s to low 70s Friday
aftn into central ND...likely a few degrees higher than NBM
shows. Crops are growing enough now to add some
evapotranspiration component. Instability axis of over MU CAPE
of over 3000 j/kg with sfc CAPE in the 2000-3000 j/kg range in
SW Manitoba, south thru Minot-Bismarck into north central SD as
we approach 00z Sat (7 pm Fri). Indications are enough forcing
present with 0-6 km shear of 30-40 kts and 500 mb jet of 50 kts
along the Intl border that storms will fire late aftn in this
axis. 850 mb winds to intensity stronger than what it was
showing 24 hours ago for Friday night with 35-40 kts 850 mb
winds by 03z Sat into scentral ND into southwest and south
central Manitoba with GFS showing 45 kt low level jet thru
central SD into eastern ND into south central MB by 06z.
Indications are that discrete supercells will likely form to our
west and may move into DVL basin very late aftn, but things
will organize into a likely thunderstorm complex in southern
Manitoba and drop SSE thru the Red River and parts of NW MN
Friday overnight. This seems like the most likely scenario. With
this system damaging winds and hail the main hazards....with a
nod toward damaging winds. SPC day 3 has slight risk but a
hatched slight risk for possible significant severe for wind in
E ND/far western MN.

Saturday will see the weak sfc boundary drop south and may
extend over north central MN into SE ND or eastern SD. Boundary
may get pushed farther south depending on convection. Near this
boundary SFC CAPES well over 4000 j/kg may develop over parts of
west central MN and far SE ND and points south via model
ensembles and NBM. However shear is weaker in the highest CAPE
areas so a bit more unsure of the development of severe storms
Saturday aftn.  Per SPC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Rain continues over the KFAR area, but will become more shower
like as it moves into the more northern TAF sites later this
afternoon and evening. Most of the rain showers should move out
of our area late tonight into tomorrow morning. Ceilings are
currently VFR with mid and high clouds, but should see some MVFR
later tonight into tomorrow. Some of the models bring IFR even
down to 400-500 ft, but that seems a bit low so kept most sites
on the MVFR to higher IFR range. Winds will be mostly from the
east, with some gusts up to around 15 to 20 kts possible.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle/JR
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...JR