673
FXUS63 KFGF 032008
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
208 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of rain will occur tonight into Wednesday across
  far southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota.
  Additional rainfall totals of generally up to 1 inch are
  forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

...Synopsis...

As of early this afternoon, satellite shows expansive stratus over
this FA. Pockets of drizzle, once prevalent this morning, have been
becoming spottier as the day wears on. Winds have also
subsided, as winds aloft to mix down are not nearly as strong
as earlier today. Therefore, for the rest of today, expect gray,
cloudy, and chilly conditions with a stiff but slowly subsiding
northerly wind. Zooming out, an upper low over the central US
is propagating to the north and east this afternoon. Surface low
pressure, currently just north of Kansas City MO, will track to
the north and east overnight into Wednesday. This will set the
stage for another round of rainfall tonight into Wednesday,
albeit with a further southeast track compared to yesterdays
system, rain will be confined to southeastern ND and west
central MN. Rain will end Wednesday night. One other hazard to
look out for the next few mornings is fog. Expansive cloud cover
and lingering winds should keep fog coverage in check Wednesday
morning. The exception could be the Devils Lake Basin where
clearing skies may sneak in, but predictability in this is low.
Thursday morning brings the potential for more widespread fog as
the low departs, taking lingering cloud cover with it.

Behind this system, ridging will build in as we go into the
weekend, slowly flattening over the weekend. This will leave us
dry and warm for early November, with high temperatures in the
40s to 50s. There are signs a system or two may try to ride the
top of the ridge, especially as we transition to northwest/zonal
flow Sunday into next Monday. At this time, precipitation
totals appear meager at best.

...Rain Tonight into Wednesday...

As the previously mentioned surface and upper low track to the
north and east from the Central Plains this afternoon towards
Lake Superior by early Thursday. As it does so, rain will
develop over the Upper Midwest. The western edge of this systems
deformation band will impact far southeastern ND into west
central MN. The northwestern edge of the precipitation shield
will have a quite tight gradient in rainfall totals. This
western edge looks to extend from near Gwinner to near Fargo to
the Red Lakes and Baudette. Small shifts in the systems track
will lead to locations along this line receiving little (a tenth
or two) of rain or more significant values (half inch or so).
Locations in west central MN, where the deformation band will
have a residence time of up to 24 hours, will see the highest
rainfall totals. Rainfall totals of up to 1 inch (locally
higher) are forecasted in our southeastern tier of counties.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

LIFR and IFR will remain predominate throughout today at most
terminals. Exceptions to this include KGFK and KDVL, where
IFR/LIFR early in the afternoon should give way to MVFR for
several hours mid to late this afternoon. A stiff northerly wind
will continue, with gusts around 30 knots during the afternoon,
strongest early in the TAF period. Overnight, ceilings will
tumble back into IFR/LIFR. Northerly winds will remain elevated,
but gusts will drop off. Ceilings will be slow to budge
Wednesday morning, but by the very end of the TAF period MVFR
will start to filter in from west to east. A few pockets of fog
cannot be ruled out, especially around KDVL, but predictability
in this occurring is low. Winds Wednesday morning will re-obtain
their gusts as well, albeit slowly lower then today (just under
30 knots).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Rafferty