298
FXUS63 KFGF 031155
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
555 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire danger Monday with humidity in the mid 20s to
  low 30s percent and wind gusts over 25 mph. SPS issued for MN
  cwa.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 541 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

No changes to the weather grids needed. Skies clear to start the
day.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

...Synopsis...

Upper level jet from 500 to 300 mb is very fast along the Intl
border to start the week. 300 mb winds in jet axis from southern
BC and Washington state east is 130 kt with 80-100 kt jet at
500 mb from Washington state east then southeast into South
Dakota and central Minnesota. During the next 5 days this very
fast flow aloft will be over the area and in that various short
waves. For the past several days, long range models, esp the
GFS, have had much variation in the strength of these waves and
resultant low pressure as the come off the Pacific and across
the Rockies into southern Alberta. Differences remain in
strength of these, with first one showing up on Thu Nov 6th.
European model has been the most consistent in indicating a bit
more north track of sfc low from north of Calgary Wed night into
far southern Manitoba late Thursday where it weakens. This
produces a band of light snow from Edmonton to Saskatoon
southeast toward west central MB with light rain in warmer
airmass Thursday southeast Saskatchewan/southern Manitoba and
northern ND and far northwest MN. This has been consistent the
past several days and has followed the NBM idea with light rain
chances into northern half of the fcst area Thursday.

GFS and NAM are a bit colder and would indicate potential for
light snow a bit farther south closer to the border Thursday.

Another system similar type Nov 8th period and this track too is
uncertain with NBM and most other models indicating a farther
south track with system coming out of southern Alberta due to
development of 500 mb upper low in Hudson Bay and south advance
of a 500 mb short wave trough into central Manitoba. Therefore
using NBM we do have more of a light snow chance Saturday, or a
mix of rain/snow. Not a significant system precipitation wise,
but something that may give at least our first chance of some
accumulating light snow going into Saturday night.

...Elevated Fire Danger Today...

Coord with MN offices, SPS issued thru 00z Tues for elevated
fire weather conditions over Minnesota due to west winds 15-20
mph and gusts 25-30 mph along with RH values mid 20s to low 30s
percent.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR thru the pd. Increasing cirrus from the west as we go thru
the day into tonight. West winds increase to 12-22 kt range with
gusts 25-30 kts, then diminish early evening and turn southwest
late tonight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle