565
FXUS63 KFGF 200914
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
414 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost chance exists Monday night/early Tuesday for northwest
  MN.

- With the exception of Wednesday night, a dry period ahead.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 411 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Patchy fog in parts of NW MN this morning and could expand some
by sunrise. Typical ground fog and seems to be around Bemidji to
Fosston to Mahnomen to Park Rapids areas and around Karlstad and
Lancaster MN at 09z. So added that to the grids thru 13/14z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...Synopsis...

Water vapor loop shows split flow with the main upper low over
ID/UT, and west to southwest flow over the Plains. Weak frontal
boundary sinking down over our region has brought a few weak
rain showers. Even with cold air advection behind the front,
plenty of clouds into tonight should help keep temps in the
upper 40s into the 50s. The upper low will come eastward into SD
and Neb tomorrow, bringing clouds but much of the precipitation
remains south of our CWA. The weakening upper low pulls further
southeast of us on Monday, with a blocking ridge over the Plains
mid-week. Most of the ensemble members bring a shortwave over
the top of the ridge late Wednesday and into Thursday, with
ridging to weak southwesterly flow setting up after that.

...Light precipitation chances this evening...

Light rain showers near the frontal boundary coming down have
dissipated, but many of the CAMs, including the HRRR and RAP,
have redevelopment between 00Z and 03Z a bit further south.
Amounts and impacts will be minimal, a few hundredths at most,
but can`t rule out a few sprinkles before midnight. The main
upper low still out over the Rockies starts to come east into
the Plains, but ensemble members are in good agreement on
impacts remaining to the south of our area. Only locations right
near the SD border have any probability of 0.01 of rain, and
less than 20 percent at that. Sunday and the first part of the
work week look to remain dry, but a shortwave coming out late
Wednesday into Thursday could bring some light precipitation.
Decent probabilities of around 60 percent for at least 0.01 of
rain, but very low chances for anything more than half an inch.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Overnight, periods of MVFR are forecasted at KBJI, otherwise
terminals should remain VFR. Northerly/variable winds tonight of
under 5 knots will give way to north/northeast winds on Sunday
of up to 12 knots. Gusts are not expected. Winds will become
light and variable again after sunset Sunday evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Rafferty