981
FXUS63 KFGF 042321
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
521 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain has ended across west central Minnesota with dry and
  seasonally warm weather into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

...Synopsis...

This afternoon, an upper level low is located near the Twin
Cities, with lingering rain and stratus to its northwest over
much of west central MN. Rain will slowly come to an end as the
low tracks towards the Great Lakes tonight. In its wake, a mix
of stratus and fog is expected to develop as high pressure
nudges in from the west. Thereafter, expansive ridging over the
western CONUS will propagate eastward, bringing ever warmer
temperatures and generally dry conditions over the next seven
days. Temperatures over the course of the week will warm from
the upper 30s/40s on Thursday, into the 40s on Friday and then
well into the 50s from Saturday through early next week. The
ridge does flatten a bit over the weekend, but any weak waves
propagating through the flow still look to remain well to our
north. Early next week, another ridge over the western US pushes
eastward out of the Rockies. 850 mb temperatures Sunday night
into Monday are near their climatological max over the western
Dakotas, with 90th percentile values extending eastward into our
southern FA. With 850mb temperatures of 11 to 13 degrees
Celsius Monday afternoon, portions of southeastern ND and west
central MN are forecasted to have highs push to near 60 degrees.
Cloud cover, along with a quick passing cold front tracking
southeastward Monday afternoon both may limit just how warm we
get. If the front slows down and clouds can hold off,
temperatures may climb a few degrees over 60. This is supported
by the 75th percentile of the NBM, which shows highs in our
region generally in the 61 to 63 degree range. For reference,
average high temperatures by early next week are on either side
of 40 degrees (upper 30s near the Canadian Border, low 40s near
the SD border). Behind the front, temperatures will drop just a
bit into the 50s, which is still well above average.

...Rain Slowly Ending Late Wednesday...

After three days of stratus and on and off rain, the upper low
responsible for the latest dreary weather will finally push
northeast tonight. This will bring an end to rainfall. Cloud
cover may not be as fast to leave, with stratus or fog forming
overnight. Low level winds to look to remain a bit elevated,
which may help limit the areal extent of fog and keep us with
more stratus instead. Nonetheless, with recent rainfall, a few
patches of fog are forecast overnight into Thursday morning
across much of eastern ND into adjacent portions of northwestern
MN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 521 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Conditions are quite variable this afternoon with clear/mostly
clear skies at KDVL, KGFK, and KTVF currently. KFAR remains on
the edge of MVFR/VFR and KBJI is still IFR. By 06z, another
round of stratus is forecast to develop from north to south
tonight. This will bring IFR CIGs. A few pockets of fog are
also expected to be mixed in, especially around KDVL and KGFK.
At this time, there remains significant uncertainty around how
widespread this fog will be. Therefore, the TAF reflects a less
foggy, more IFR stratus scenario. CIGs will lift late Thursday
morning into the mid afternoon, with MVFR by the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...TT