531
FXUS63 KFGF 091910
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
110 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain and wintry mix remains possible today across
  portions of southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota.
  Impact potential with this system is minimal.

- There is a chance for light snow across far southeast North
  Dakota and west central MN Thursday. Impact potential is low,
  with higher probabilities remaining further south.

- Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the
  weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

...Synopsis...

The flow pattern this week will vary between northwesterly and
westerly H5 flow as ridging continues to weaken and elongate across
the western CONUS. Cold air is lifting northward as this happens,
allowing much warmer temperatures to slowly fill into the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest. A weak disturbance stretches from west to
east, across the baroclinic zone, today, allowing a mention of
precipitation in the form of rain and wintry mix. As the trough
moves into northwest Minnesota, it will encounter slightly cooler
air, with light snow possible through Tuesday morning. Split flow
develops late this week, with the northern and southern jet
converging across the Ohio Valley heading into Friday. A shortwave
traverses the flow on Thursday, mainly moving across northern
portions of South Dakota and southern Minnesota. While there is a
chance for light snow in southeast North Dakota, most of the impact
potential remains to our south. Heading into late Friday and the
weekend, the western ridge continues to break down, with troughing
expected to form off the Pacific Northwest as we head into early
next week. This will keep warm temps locked in place across the
forecast area through Monday, but points towards a potential pattern
change further into next week.

...Light Rain and Wintry Mix this Evening and Tonight...

A weak trough continues to traverse the baroclinic zone this
afternoon and evening. Light rain is possible this evening across
the I-94 corridor and points south and east. For the evening precip,
the primary ptype will be rain; however, as temps fall later in the
evening and overnight, chances for a wintry mix will increase,
especially in northwest Minnesota. Heading into Tuesday morning,
colder air works into the area from the north, along with a chance
for light snow and flurries across northwest Minnesota and possibly
the northern Red River Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions prevail at KFAR and KDVL, with MVFR ceilings
elsewhere. Cloud cover will continue increasing as we head
through the afternoon. MVFR and possibly patchy IFR ceilings are
expected this evening and overnight at all TAF sites. Light
rain, wintry mix, and snow could approach the vicinity of KFAR
and KBJI late this afternoon into the evening; however,
confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch