467
FXUS63 KFGF 241755
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1155 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light wintry mix or snow Christmas Day into the evening, with
  a 50 percent chance for advisory level impacts

- A system moves through the region this weekend, potentially
  bringing winter impacts. There is a 10 percent chance for
  warning level impacts, mainly from blowing snow.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

A few breaks in the clouds, but a mix of high and low clouds
continues to move across the region. Fairly quiet so far with
some weak cold air advection across the CWA.

UPDATE
Issued at 943 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Cloudy skies and quiet conditions this morning. A few sites in
southeastern ND and the northern Red River Valley have been
reporting 3-5SM with light mist. However, do not see much
indication of impacts from web cams or road reports.

UPDATE
Issued at 659 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Cloud cover, mostly mid and high variety remains over the area.
Some clear breaks though. Weak front/trough is moving thru E ND
with winds turning light northerly into NE ND back to Jamestown.
Some low clouds and fog have formed in a small zone near the SD
border from Linton ND to near Wahpeton ND. Monitoring for
aviation updates, but otherwise grids look good.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

...Synopsis...

500 mb flow is now south-southwest over the western US then more
west-southwest on top of a 500 mb ridge centered over east Texas
thru North Dakota and Manitoba into Minnesota. This will be the
upper air pattern until the weekend when pattern returns to the
usual way its been for months which is taking Pacific waves
inland thru Washington state and B.C. and east along the Intl
border/southern Canada. This pattern will keep the baroclinic
zone from cold to mild right near the Intl border into the
weekend, before a quick surge of arctic air moves south Sunday-
Monday.

...Light wintry mix or snow Christmas Day into the evening...

Cold front/sfc trough will move east thru the area today, with
winds this afternoon turning north 15 mph. High pressure center
is well north though over central Manitoba at 06z Thu. It will
move east and southeast winds in the 925-850 mb layer increase
rather quickly between 06z-12z Thu from southwest MN, eastern SD
into southeast and central ND. Models hint at low level moisture
increasing in this moist advection and low level warm advection
zone thru 12z with potential for freezing drizzle development
with low clouds mainly west of Wadena-Grand Forks region. So did
add some patchy fog and some fzdz to grids to blend with
thoughts from ABR and MPX in regards to fzdz chances along our
common border near the ND/SD/MN border area and northwest from
there to in between GFK/DVL overnight tonight. Low level warm
advection zone lifts northeast thru the morning with chances for
freezing drizzle lifting northeast as well. HREF ptype data
shows freezing precip or ice pellets the main possibility in any
precip that forms late tonight thru Thu AM in E ND/west central
MN. Initially 850 mb moisture is lacking so moisture is more
tied to 900 mb and lower. But increased 850 mb moisture and
sounding saturation occurs in NW MN Christmas evening and pops
will increase. BUFKIT soundings and HREF ptype progs indicate
predominate freezing/sleet in many areas then turning to more
predominate light snow around Lake of the Woods. Up to 1 inch of
snowfall possible around Baudette.

Question for degree of impacts will reside with coverage and
intensity of precipitation that falls. But given the cold
surfaces it will not take much to make roads poor. I will up the
chance for advisory impacts to 50 percent for now. As
confidence increases in ptype and timing could easily see
advisory chances increase significantly.

...Saturday into Sunday...

Next wave moving in from the west in this case will take upper
low along the Intl border. Snowfall chances are highest north of
the border but there is some chances for light snow or a mix
northern ND into far northwest MN Saturday. Probs for 1 inch of
snow from NBM and also from the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensembles
thru 12z Sunday are in the 20 pct range. Sunday though
differences exist in that there is a potential that the upper
low that moves in digs a bit more south with 00z Canadian global
operational run showing this with upper low Sunday aftn in
central MN. This will allow for additional light snow Sunday in
the area vs the other models which take upper low move due east
and our area drier Sunday. NBM follows this drier route and
hence in the grids on Sunday chances for any snow is quite low
with 20 pops in NW MN and less than 15 pops elsewhere. But the
more south position of the upper low via Canadian model and its
ensembles hint at that too as well as a few ECMWF ensemble
members, is a possibility and thus did retain the idea of 10
percent chance of warning impacts due to blowing snow. The snow
on the ground wont blow much as accumulation in many areas are
more in the city/towns and snow in fields in many locations in
the prairie portion of the area is not deep due to snow being
blown by the last system. 850 mb winds 45 kts from the northwest
are forecast Sunday in cold advection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Patches of MVFR stratus trapped under the cirrus clouds, mainly
at KFAR and KTVF currently, but should scatter out in the next
few hours. Consistent low level moisture will hold off until the
later parts of the period when warm air advection kicks in,
late tonight into tomorrow morning. Mostly MVFR ceilings but
some IFR is possible at KDVL. Think most of the lower visibility
will stay south and west of our airports. Best chances for
mixed winter precipitation will be after the TAF period. Winds
will shift around from a more northerly direction at 10 kts to
east and then southeast, picking up in speed as we head into
tomorrow morning with gusts up to 20 kts in some spots.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle/JR
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...JR