409
FXUS63 KFGF 081234
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
734 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are forecasted in
  southeastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota today.

- At least near critical fire weather conditions will continue
  through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 734 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A quick update to the Red Flag Warning. It has been expanded
into much of west central MN. Latest model guidance shows winds
aloft arriving a bit faster, which with deep mixing to 700 mb,
should get surface wind gusts up into the 30 to 35 mph range.
The remaining Red Flag Warning remains unchanged, with no other
forecast changes needed at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Fire weather concerns are the story of the day. Deep mixing up to
about 700 mb will promote RH values as low as 20 percent in
southeastern ND. Winds of 20 to 30 mph, occasionally gusting higher
as the pressure gradient tightens slightly due to a passing surface
trough, will combine with the low RH values to produce critical fire
weather. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the
southeastern corner of ND, in effect from 11 AM CDT this morning to
8 PM CDT this evening. On the Minnesota side, deep mixing will lead
to similar RH values down to about 20 percent. However, winds
will be lighter, as the stronger winds aloft do not arrive until
very late afternoon into the evening. This means winds across
much of MN will not be as high as further west in ND, where the
higher winds aloft will arrive during peak afternoon heating,
and will therefore have a much easier time to 1) mix down and 2)
bring several hours of stronger winds and thus critical fire
weather. The one area on the MN side of the FA that will need to
be monitored closely is the central and southern Red River
Valley, where the stronger winds might arrive early enough to
bring a shorter window of critical fire weather. All other
portions of the forecast remain on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

...Synopsis...

Northwesterly flow aloft continues through tonight and tomorrow,
with the next shortwave digging down Friday night into Saturday.
The northwesterly flow aloft returns for Sunday and Monday
before another shortwave pushes through the Northern Plains
Monday night and Tuesday. After this shortwave, ensemble members
are all over the place with some clusters pushing ridging into
the Plains and other clusters keeping us in northwesterly flow.
Predictability is low although the ECMWF EFI does show our
colder temperatures signal transitioning over to warmer than
average by days 6 and 7.

...This afternoon`s near critical fire weather...

Temperatures finally not quite as cool as they have been this
week and most spots have risen into the 50s. With dew points in
the teens to low 20s, relative humidity values have dropped into
the 20 to 30 percent range for the most part. Winds are mostly
under 15 mph although a few spots are gusting up to around 20
mph. SPS for near critical fire weather conditions continues to
seem good, and the low RH values will continue into this evening
before temperatures start to drop.

...Tomorrow and beyond fire weather concerns...

Similar RH values are expected for tomorrow afternoon, and there
will be more of a pressure gradient as a surface trough moves
through. While winds look higher than today, there is only
around 30 kts to mix down and not much in the way of pressure
rises. The 50th percentile of NBM has some 25 mph sustained
winds in east central ND, but may be due to the NBM`s bias in
that area. The HREF joint probability for winds over 25 mph and
RH values under 25 percent doesn`t have much. Dropping the winds
threshold down to 20 mph gives us some low chances for critical
fire weather conditions on the MN side, around 20 percent.
Definitely could see critical to near critical fire conditions
for tomorrow afternoon, but not confident enough to go with a
watch at this point. Still breezy into Saturday, but slightly
cooler temps should bring higher RH values and there will be a
low chance for showers. Less wind and similar RH values for
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 651 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR will prevail throughout the TAF period, with any aviation
impacts tied to elevated winds this afternoon. Winds will be
strongest at KDVL, KGFK and KFAR. By mid afternoon, gusts of 30
knots or greater are likely at KFAR. These higher gusts may
sneak into KGFK as well for a brief period this afternoon, but
predictability/duration was too low to add them into the TAF at
this time. Ceilings this evening will fall a bit but remain VFR.
Quick moving rain showers may accompany the lowering ceilings.
KDVL and KFAR seem to hold a slightly higher chance then any
other terminals for seeing these showers. However, shower coverage
and duration remains uncertain, as dry air may keep some of the
rain from reaching the ground. In addition, aviation impacts
are uncertain as a worst case scenario would bring a brief
period of MVFR visibilities. Therefore, no PROB30s for -RA were
added at this time, but future TAF iterations can refine this as
needed.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for NDZ024-028>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT this
     evening for MNZ002-003-022-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Rafferty